As Celia Israel surges, Kirk Watson looks to regroup for runoff in Austin mayor's race

The list of things money can't buy expanded this week from love and happiness to include a third entry: Enough votes to avoid a runoff in Austin's mayoral election.

Money was hardly a problem for Kirk Watson, who raised an astounding $1.35 million and outspent his nearest challenger, Celia Israel, by 4 to 1. As the gap in campaign resources grew larger and larger, the political winds seemed to suggest that Watson, Austin's mayor from 1997 to 2001, would waltz back into office for a second go-round.

But Watson failed to deliver on Election Day, and he was confronted with the reality that he might no longer wield the political power in Austin that he did as a 38-year-old mayor and while later in serving in the Texas Senate.

More:Austin mayor's race: Celia Israel and Kirk Watson headed to a runoff

Celia Israel may have 'momentum behind her' heading into runoff

Watson received 15,000 fewer votes than Israel, a state representative who over the course of the race made up ground and might have even exceeded Watson in name recognition and political presence.

After the final votes were tallied Tuesday night, Watson had unofficially received 35% of the vote, meaning more than six of every 10 voters picked someone other than him. Israel received 40%. Since neither earned a majority, they will now proceed to a head-to-head runoff. At stake is a two-year term as mayor to replace Steve Adler, who is term-limited and will leave office after the new year. Early voting begins Dec. 1 for the Dec. 13 runoff.

Watson said Wednesday that because the mayoral field was big, with six candidates, he expected the race to go to a runoff.

"Being in a runoff gives us the opportunity to continue reaching out to more people and hearing from more people," Watson said. "Austin isn't becoming a big city, we are a big city. We have big city problems, but that means we have big city opportunities. We don't have the time or the luxury to screw around and not get things done."

Meanwhile, Israel's campaign celebrated the outcome as a big win for an underdog candidate.

"A stunning victory for Celia," said Rich Thuma, Israel's campaign manager. "She was completely written off by the establishment and outspent 4:1, but never lost faith. Voters connected with her story and her vision for making Austin affordable for working families, and she heads into the runoff with all of the momentum behind her."

A third candidate, Jennifer Virden, received 18% of the vote. She appealed to Austin's conservative voters, who now must decide if they will return for the runoff, and, if so, which candidate they will support. Three other candidates earned an insignificant share of the vote: Phil Brual, Anthony Bradshaw and Gary Spellman.

More:Texas Gov. Greg Abbott defeats Beto O'Rourke to win third term

Voter turnout for runoffs often unpredictable

Runoffs are a crap-shoot, made unpredictable by a typical drop in voter participation and an uncertain electorate. Runoffs often have little appeal to younger voters, who are interested more in the statewide races that are already over, but attract voters who are older and have longer roots in Austin. That could benefit Watson. But in this particular runoff, there also will be races in three Austin City Council districts, which are in areas in South, Central and East Austin that voted in favor of Israel over Watson. That's not ideal for Watson, who did well mostly in West Austin.

Although money clearly had a limited impact in the race, the candidates will need to replenish their campaign accounts. As of the end of October, Israel had just $38,000 remaining, and Watson had $113,000. Both are getting outside assistance from political action committees.

To this point, Watson has gotten a bad return on his money. He spent $1.2 million and received 106,000 votes. That's $11 per vote. Contrast that with Israel, who spent $377,000 and received 121,000 votes. That's $3 per vote.

The potential is there for the race to get nasty, if it's not already. On Tuesday, Stand Together Austin, a PAC supporting Watson, distributed a video and text messages accusing Israel of trying to kill a bill in the most recent Texas legislative session that would have increased funding for sexual assault victims. Israel disputed the claims, saying that the bill in question, from Rep. Craig Goldman, R-Fort Worth, would have cut funding from nonprofits, public schools and affordable housing "under the guise of supporting survivors."

Israel called on Watson to denounce the attacks.

"I’ve spoken publicly multiple times about my personal experiences with domestic violence," Israel said in a tweet. "So I take even greater offense that I’m now the target of last minute, deceitful campaign texts claiming I’ve turned my back on survivors."

As the runoff approaches, the potential looms for two key endorsements. Adler did not endorse a candidate in the mayor's race, but on Monday told the American-Statesman that he might endorse someone in a runoff. Which one he could endorse is uncertain, as Adler is friendly with Israel and Watson.

Unknown is whether Virden, as the third-leading vote getter, will announce an endorsement. Virden did not respond to a message Wednesday seeking comment.

As a conservative, Virden has little in common politically with Israel or Watson, and she might see no incentive to get involved. But if she does endorse, it could be a game changer by sending her supporters to the polls when they otherwise might not bother.

This article originally appeared on Austin American-Statesman: As Celia Israel surges, Kirk Watson looks to regroup for Austin mayor runoff