Census: Illinois population shrank by 104,000 residents in a year, third highest loss in the country
The U.S. Census Bureau reported Thursday that Illinois shrank by an estimated 104,000 residents from 2021 to 2022, a contraction surpassed only by New York and California.
The picture was even gloomier when considering the rate of population loss. Illinois declined by 0.8% to 12.6 million people, a rate topped only by New York’s 0.9% loss.
The figures take into account births, deaths and moves in and out of states. Illinois also ranked third in net migration loss, at 141,000.
The estimates suggest Illinois is an outlier in the Midwest. All the surrounding states notched modest population gains, while Ohio and Michigan suffered smaller losses.
Meanwhile, the population continues to boom in much of the South and West. Florida led the way with a nearly 2% jump in one year, followed closely by Idaho and South Carolina.
The new Illinois figures are a departure from happier news the Census Bureau delivered in May. The bureau reported the decennial census, which found that the state had lost 18,000 people between 2010 and 2020, had likely undercounted the population by about 2%. Gov. J.B. Pritzker touted the news as evidence that Illinois is “a state on the rise.”
But a bureau spokesperson said both sets of numbers should be viewed with caution. The May figures came with a margin of error, she said, while the figures released Thursday are not an actual count but estimates based on third-party data from the IRS, Medicare and keepers of vital statistics.
In a statement about the new estimate, Pritzker’s office brought up the undercount and noted that international migration and “natural changes” — that is, births outnumbering deaths — had been a net positive.
“While we will study these preliminary numbers, the context regarding their accuracy is important,” it said. “Illinois remains one of the most populous states in the nation and long term trends remain encouraging.”
The conservative Illinois Policy Institute, meanwhile, was quick to pounce on the decline, noting that big companies like Caterpillar and Boeing have also joined the exodus.
“Reforms that would ease Illinoisans’ tax burden or reduce arduous business regulations are needed to make the state more affordable and send people running to Illinois, rather than away from it,” the group said in a statement.
Beckie Bean, 71, and her husband left their longtime hometown of Quincy this year for the hills of Tennessee, moving into a house roughly 30 miles east of Knoxville. She said while they had long been frustrated by Illinois’ income and real estate taxes, the shutdowns prompted by the pandemic were the final straw.
“It’s beautiful and the people are so nice,” she said of her new home. “They’ve been very clear they didn’t want us to bring Illinois politics here. I said, ‘That’s why we’re here ― because you’re a red state.’”
Others, though, said politics played no role in their moves.
Michael Hoffman, 53, who cofounded a Chicago-based software company, began working remotely at the outset of the pandemic, and after trying out a few cities, settled in Los Angeles in August. For him, the weather was the key factor.
“I feel like I’m cheating on Chicago, but it’s really nice to walk outside and take a hike in the middle of December,” he said by phone as a snowstorm buffeted his former city.
Tom Prendergast, 69, and his wife left Wheaton for Richmond, Virginia, earlier this year to be closer to their daughter. They continue to split time in Sarasota, Florida, where they bought a home in 2015.
The near-lifelong Illinoisan said he’s dismayed by the glee some take in his former state’s shrinking population. Chicago in particular gets a bad rap for crime, even though that’s a problem everywhere, he said.
“Chicago’s a great city,” he said. “I wish it well.”
Twitter @JohnKeilman
