Central Coast could get light rain this week — and maybe even snow. Here’s the forecast

The latest in a string of El Niño-driven storms this February has brought seasonal rainfall totals above average for many Central Coast locations. In fact, some areas have already received more precipitation than they would for the entire rainfall season (July 1 through June 30). Keep in mind that March is one of our wettest months.

So far, Rocky Butte, near Hearst Castle, has recorded 55 inches of rain; average seasonal rainfall at the butte is 40 inches. The Paso Robles Municipal Airport has seen 14 inches; in a typical year, it’s about 13 inches.

Cal Poly (home of climatology for San Luis Obispo) is at 17 inches this rain season, or at 110% of average for this date in the month. The Santa Maria Public Airport has recorded 11 inches, only 2 inches below the seasonal average of 13 inches. Santa Barbara Municipal Airport reports nearly 20 inches of rain, 4 inches above the typical 16 inches for the entire rain season.

Because of the back-to-back above-average rainfall seasons, most of our lakes and reservoirs are at or over 100% of capacity. Lake San Antonio is at 74% of capacity, while Lake Nacimiento is reporting 85%and filling quickly as of Friday.

An upper-level low-pressure system, centered 800 miles to the west of the Central Coast, will gradually move southeastward this weekend. This system will produce gentle variable winds, partly to mostly cloudy skies and mild temperatures.

The associated cold front will move through San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara counties on Monday with gentle-to-moderate (8 to 18 mph) southerly winds and rain showers. Total rainfall amounts are expected to range between 0.10 and 0.33 inches, with many northern San Luis Obispo county areas not recording any rain with this weak system.

In the wake of this cold front, fresh-to-strong (19 to 31 mph) northwesterly winds and mostly clear skies, except for areas of fog in the inland valleys and along the coastline during the overnight and morning, will start Tuesday and continue through Thursday. Over this period, temperatures will drop to the high 30s in the inland valleys (Paso Robles) and mid-40s in the coastal valleys (San Luis Obispo) and along the beaches. Daytime highs will hit the mid-60s throughout the region.

On Friday, the southerly winds and mid- to high-level clouds will increase ahead of another storm reaching the Central Coast next Saturday and Sunday.

This tempest out of the Gulf of Alaska is expected to produce gale-force southerly winds and moderate-to-heavy rain. Freezing levels with this system could drop as low as 3,000 feet, with many Central Coast mountain peaks receiving snow.

Surf report

A 3- to 5-foot northwesterly (285-degree deep-water) swell (with an 8- to 17-second period) is expected along our coastline Sunday through Tuesday morning.

A 5- to 7-foot northwesterly (300-degree deep-water) sea and swell (with a 5- to 14-second period) will develop on Tuesday afternoon through Thursday, becoming a 4- to 6-foot west-northwesterly swell on Friday.

Gale-force southerly winds will generate an 11- to 13-foot west-southwesterly (255-degree deep-water) sea and swell (with a 5- to 13-secod period) next Saturday and Sunday.

Seawater temperatures will range between 57 and 59 degrees through next Saturday.

This week’s temperatures

LOWS AND HIGHS, PASO ROBLES

LOWS AND HIGHS, SAN LUIS OBISPO AND COASTAL VALLEYS

John Lindsey is a retired PG&E marine meteorologist. Email him at JohnLindseyLosOsos@gmail.com or follow him on Twitter @PGE_John.