This Central Valley congressional district could be Democrats’ easiest California pickup

In November 2022, just 564 votes separated the candidates in California’s 13th Congressional District, a purple stretch of San Joaquin Valley farmland.

Rep. John Duarte, R-Modesto, won what turned out to be the second-closest House race in the United States over former Assemblyman Adam Gray, D-Merced. Both are running again, as the only candidates in the March 5 primary, and Democrats are making the seat one of their highest priorities in the nation to flip.

Analysts say the race is again too close to call.

Gray’s campaign is in the first wave of those getting support from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the party’s campaign arm in the House of Representatives. The DCCC’s “Red to Blue” program aids candidates in highly-competitive, top priority districts.

“We have no doubt that Adam is the right person to replace extremist John Duarte and give Valley families the type of representation and advocacy they deserve,” said DCCC Chair Rep. Suzan DelBene, D-Wash., in a statement.

Democrats have a pretty good shot, election analysts predict.

California’s 13th, which covers all of Merced County and parts of Madera, Stanislaus, Fresno and San Joaquin counties, has more registered Democrats than Republicans. Voters there picked President Joe Biden over former President Donald Trump by almost 11 percentage points in 2020. Candidates who pitch themselves as moderate tend to win over voters in the largely agricultural district.

“I look at the other California Biden-won districts that Democrats are targeting and this one can be seen as among the most gettable,” said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, which rates elections based on whether Democrats or Republicans are more likely to prevail.

March to preview November election

Since it’s only Gray, 46, and Duarte, 57, on the March 5 primary ballot, voters will be getting a preview of the Nov. 5 general election.

“Generally speaking, the districts get a little bluer from the primary to the general,” Kondik said of California. “I could see that being true this time because the Republicans have a presidential primary going on that is arguably more competitive than the Democratic one.”

Gray served his hometown of Merced in the California State Assembly from 2012-2022. His voting record was described as “moderate-left” compared to other members of the Assembly by CalMatters, a California news outlet, before the 2022 midterms. He helped found the Legislature’s Problem Solvers Caucus, a group aiming to find bipartisan consensus on key issues.

“As people start paying attention to race, they’re going to see that John Duarte is just a sympathizer with the extremists,” Gray said in an interview.

Duarte, a farmer and founder of Duarte Nursery outside Modesto, has voted against the Republican majority 9.6% of the time, according to ProPublica. The nonpartisan news organization considers that almost “often” on a scale from “often” to “rarely.”

“Adam’s gonna have a hard time coming into the middle and convincing the voters that his voting record as an Assemblyman for 10 years was more in tune with the Valley and this district than my voting record has been this last year,” Duarte said in an interview.

Duarte, as a freshman member of Congress, has fewer election wins than Reps. David Valadao, R-Hanford, and Mike Garcia, R-Santa Clarita, whose districts Sabato’s Crystal Ball also rates as California toss-ups. Duarte’s limited campaign experience might make the 13th a prime target, Kondik said.

“I think there’s an advantage to being an incumbent if you’re doing a good job and reflecting the needs of your district,” Duarte said.

Nonpartisan analysts at the Crystal Ball, Cook Political Report and Inside Elections rate elections on a scale from “toss-up” to “leaning” to “likely” to “solidly” in favor of voting for one party. Ratings can shift as details about races emerge.

In California, the Cook Political Report has incumbents Duarte, Valadao, Garcia and Rep. Ken Calvert, R-Corona, in toss-ups. Inside Elections has just Duarte and Garcia in that category.

Ben Petersen, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, said that “extreme D.C. liberals handpicked self-serving Sacramento politician Adam Gray because they know Gray constantly sells out the Valley to fund his lavish lifestyle.”

The House majority is up for grabs

All the 2024 battleground races, including the one in the 13th, will help determine whether Democrats or Republicans control the House in 2025. Analysts say the House majority itself is a toss-up.

In 2022, Republicans won a slim House majority in an underwhelming midterm performance. Republicans and analysts in the months leading up to November 2022 had predicted a “red wave” that would hand the GOP a decisive win.

Currently the House has 219 Republicans and 213 Democrats after lawmakers expelled former Rep. George Santos, R-N.Y., and two other GOP members resigned, including McCarthy Three seats are vacant.

The closest 2022 House race in the country was between Rep. Lauren Boebert, R-Colo., and Democrat Adam Frisch, a former city councilmember in Aspen. Boebert bested Frisch by just 554 votes, which triggered an automatic recount in Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District.

Boebert won, but moved her campaign to a more conservative Colorado district for 2024 after Frisch led in fundraising and early polls. Sabato’s Crystal Ball and other forecasters rate the race in Colorado’s 3rd as leaning in favor of a Republican in 2024.

Duarte won his 2022 race with a 0.4% margin of victory and was declared the winner almost a month after the election, the second-to-last race called. More than 133,000 ballots were cast.

Of the 13th now, Kondik said, “I think it’s one of the truest toss-up districts in the whole country.”