The challenge of re-signing Vincent or Strus, and a tax that could rise well over $100 M

The Heat, over the years, has spent hundreds of millions to re-sign its own players who graduated with honors from its development pipeline.

But for the first time, the Heat’s decisions on its impending young unrestricted free agents - Max Strus, Gabe Vincent, and to a far lesser extent, Omer Yurtseven - will carry far greater financial consequences than past decisions to lavish their own with generational wealth.

As Strus and Vincent helped the Heat progress through the playoffs, their projected price tag rose, even amid some shooting atruggles in the Finals.

A longtime Eastern Conference scout and ESPN’s Bobby Marks has said Vincent could command at least $12 million and Strus $10 million or so annually in free agency. It’s possible another team could offer more.

The Heat likely will try to keep at least one, at a price point that it can live with.

But here’s the rub: If Miami keeps this team largely together (or even trades for a star earning a salary similar to players dealt away) salaries at that projection for Strus and Vincent would push the Heat’s payroll to the $200 million range. That would result in a tax bill of a staggering $124 million.

That $200 million payroll would be well above both the $162 million projected luxury tax line and the $178 million “second apron”; teams surpassing the second apron this offseason cannot use a $5 million taxypayer midlevel exception, among other restrictions.

But exceeding the “second apron” -- a new element of the new labor deal that punishes teams $17.5 million over the tax line -- becomes far more punitive in the summer of 2024.

So that’s one rub.

Here’s the other rub: The Heat likely would not be able to replace Strus or Vincent with anyone earning more than the minimum, at least in free agency. Miami also could try to replace either player in trades if the bidding for either becomes too steep for the Heat’s liking.

The Heat has always planned to be a ‘tax team’ next season.

But the new labor agreement gives teams strong incentive not to surpass the second apron, particularly in 2024-25.

Among those incentives: Teams over that second apron cannot sign a player on the buyout market next season, a vehicle Miami used in February to add Kevin Love and Cody Zeller.

So the suspicion here is that the Heat generally will try to avoid the second apron moving forward, including next season if possible.

But unless the Heat can dump significant payroll, signing even only one - Strus or Vincent - likely would put the Heat in second apron territory next season. Signing both would push Miami well above the second apron.

If the Heat signs two players at minimum deals instead of re-signing Strus and Vincent, Miami’s tax payment could drop to around $38 million or more, depending on the team’s final payroll number at the end of the 2023-24 season.

So between the projected salaries and tax payments for Strus and Vincent (using Marks’ estimates), that would essentially mean paying around $106 million to keep both of them next season --- unless Miami can surprisingly find teams willing to take the contracts of Duncan Robinson and/or Kyle Lowry in exchange for players making significantly less.

I wouldn’t put any of this past Heat general manager/cap savant Andy Elisburg, who has rescued Miami from financial conundrums before.

But the new labor deal -- and how Vincent and Strus have raised their market value -- create conundrums.

The potential problem is more pronounced because of Victor Oladipo’s significant knee injury that essentially assures that he will exercise his $9.7 million player option for that season. If Oladipo had opted out, Miami would have had far more financial flexibility.

“The new CBA doesn’t have teeth until the 2024 offseason,” Marks said via text message earlier this offseason. “With the Lowry contract expiring next year, Miami can bring both players back [Strus and Vincent] before the harsh rules set it. Of course, they would be a tax team.”

But a very big tax team. And that ultimately could have Miami choosing between Vincent and Strus. Vincent would seem the greater priority because he plays more of a position of need as the roster is currently constituted.

The luxury tax dynamic wasn’t a big concern when Miami gave a combined $602 million guaranteed to young players Hassan Whiteside, Tyler Johnson, Josh Richardson, Justise Winslow, Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson.

Of those seven, Johnson and Robinson were undrafted, and Whiteside by drafted by another team (Sacramento).

Robinson’s deal has perhaps been the most onerous of those contracts; he is owed $47.3 million guaranteed, and as much as $57.3 million overall, over the final three seasons of his five-year, 90 million contract.

But his strong postseason has made that deal look somewhat better; the Heat can either keep him and plug him back in the rotation next season (especially if Herro is dealt and Strus isn’t re-signed) or use his contract as salary cap ballast to make a trade.

Some perspective on those seven deals totaling $602 million:

There are obviously no regrets internally on the deals for Adebayo (five years, $163 million) and Herro (four years, $130 million). Both likely would have commanded that on the open market.

And while the size of the outlays for Robinson (five years, $90 million), Whiteside (four years, $98 million) and Johnson (four year, $50 million) proved to be questionable, Johnson’s and Whiteside’s contracts didn’t ultimately hurt the franchise, and Whiteside’s seemed justified at the time.

Robinson’s deal is no longer an albatross, not after he diversified his game, improved as a driver and finisher and shot 44.2 percent on threes in postseason.

And deals for Richardson (four years, $42 million) and Winslow (three-years, $39 million) worked out, because Miami used Richardson’s salary in the Jimmy Butler sign-and-trade with Philadelphia and utilized Winslow’s contract to help facilitate acquiring Jae Crowder and Andre Iguodala, moves that helped the Heat in its run to the 2020 NBA Finals.

Vincent and Strus have earned new deals more than Winslow ever did.

But the dynamics are different now, because the Heat is projected to be well above the luxury tax line and because of new restrictive rules on taxpaying teams. And that complicates looming decisions on both players.