Is there a chance the Oregon Ducks can sneak back into the College Football Playoff?
To say that the Oregon Ducks are unlikely to make their way back into the top-4 of the College Football Playoffs before the end of the year is an understatement.
To say that it’s impossible, though, is a lie.
The newest rankings came out on Tuesday night, and they serve as our last glimpse at what the playoff committee thinks before the final rankings come out next Sunday, cementing the top-10, and more importantly, the top-4 in place.
The Ducks were No. 10 in the latest rankings, moving up a spot from No. 11 after their win over Oregon State. Here is how the top-10 shook out:
Georgia Bulldogs
Michigan Wolverines
Alabama Crimson Tide
Cincinnati Bearcats
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Ohio State Buckeyes
Baylor Bears
Ole Miss Rebels
Oregon Ducks
The top-10 recognition is nice for Oregon, but it doesn’t seem to mean much since they will get into the Rose Bowl with a win over Utah on Friday regardless, and likely won’t be in play for a CFP appearance.
Are we certain that they can’t find a way to get up to No. 4 by Sunday, though?
It’s a crazy question, for sure, but one that technically has a positive answer for Duck fans. In order for it to happen, complete and utter chaos would need to ensue over the next several days. Try to follow along.
Georgia and Alabama play in the SEC Championship on Saturday. Georgia would need to win in order to knock Alabama out of the race. Georgia is favored by 6.5 points.
Iowa plays Michigan in the Big-10 Championship. The Hawkeyes winning would knock the Wolverines out of contention. Michigan is favored by 10.5 points.
Cincinnati would need to suffer their first loss of the season, yanking them from the top-10. They play No. 21 Houston on Saturday, where the Bearcats are favored by 10.5 points.
After a thrilling win over Oklahoma last week, Oklahoma State would need to suffer an upset to the No. 8 Baylor Bears in the Big-12 Championship. OSU is currently favored by 5.5 points.
On top of all of this, the Oregon Ducks would need one of the most convincing wins of the season, blowing out the No. 17 Utah Utes in the Pac-12 Championship game.
You get all of that? Should the aforementioned outcomes take place, it would mean that the following teams lost, and are out of the running for a top-4 spot: No. 2 Michigan, No. 3 Alabama, No. 4 Cincinnati, and No. 6 Oklahoma State.
Of course, that would still mean that No. 1 Georgia, No. 5 Notre Dame, No. 7 Ohio State, No. 8 Baylor, and No. 9 Ole Miss stayed alive, and would likely move up ahead of Oregon. That’s where the massive blowout and style points might come in for the Ducks. Should they win in such a dominant manner, they could theoretically slip into the No. 4 spot. Chalk No. 1 up to Georgia, and move Notre Dame up to No. 2. Give Baylor No. 3 after they beat Oklahoma State, and then you have to choose between the Buckeyes, Rebels, and Ducks for the 4th spot.
Oregon has a head-to-head win over Ohio State. Will that matter? Oregon arguably has looked better than Ole Miss at their ceiling, and with a fresh beating in the minds of the committee, that could slip them ahead of Lane Kiffin and his team. Could you keep a 2-loss Pac-12 Champion out of the playoff over a 2-loss Ohio State team or a 2-loss Ole Miss team? That would cause quite a stir in the college football world.
As I said before all of that nonsense, it’s improbable. But it’s not impossible.
A ton of dominoes need to fall in the exact right way in order for the Ducks to have a chance, and even then, it will come down to a judgment call from the playoff committee.
But still, if you asked the question on Tuesday night of whether or not Oregon still has an opportunity to get into the College Football Playoff, you now have an answer.
Crazier things have happened.
