Change inevitable for Panthers, coach Frank Reich after 1-8 start. But will it matter?

The leaves are falling, which means it’s time for the latest Carolina Panthers head coach to get asked about his job security.

Frank Reich was asked exactly that during his news conference Friday, which followed Carolina’s ugly 16-13 loss to Chicago that dropped the team to 1-8 — tied with Arizona for the worst record in the NFL.

When asked if his own job security ever entered his mind, Reich said: “Yes. It’s the NFL. Like most people, I don’t walk on pins and needles about it….We all realize we’re on day-to-day contracts.”

Reich is actually in the first year of a four-year contract. But as owner Dave Tepper proved once again this week, when he fired a Charlotte FC coach for the second time in two seasons, he’ll fire anyone, at any time, if he doesn’t think the job is getting done. Patience is not his strong suit. Matt Rhule got fired five games into the 2022 season. Counting interim head coaches, Reich is the fifth head coach the Panthers have employed since Tepper bought the team in 2018.

Reich got fired himself almost exactly a year ago, in Indianapolis, after a good deal of early success in that and other jobs. He said that he long ago made peace with the day-to-day nature of the NFL business.

“I enjoy that part of it,” he said. “I understand the accountability that comes with it. I embrace that. And there’s no place I’d rather be than right in the middle of it, and be in the battle.”

The Panthers are losing one battle after another these days, and the games aren’t entertaining, either.

‘We’re not hitting on any cylinders’

I actually skipped watching the Carolina Panthers’ Thursday night game against Chicago live, which I hardly ever have done since covering the team’s inaugural season in 1995. Instead, I chose to cover the Caitlin Clark show in Charlotte.

It was a wise decision, as Iowa superstar Clark dazzled before the largest crowd (15,196) to ever attend a regular-season women’s college basketball game in North Carolina. It was a thrilling performance, as Clark scored more points in one game (44) than the Panthers have managed over the past three weeks (41).

But focusing the entire night on writing about Clark and Iowa put me behind on my Panthers coverage duties. So on Friday morning I fast-forwarded through the Carolina-Chicago game, stopping to repeatedly view every highlight play.

It took five minutes.

The Panthers set new lows in the Reich era/error for first downs (12) and total yards (213). While dropping to 1-8, Carolina’s only touchdown came on a punt return, meaning the offense actually generated only six points.

“We’re not hitting on all cylinders,” Carolina wide receiver Adam Thielen said later. “We’re not hitting on any cylinders. It’s embarrassing.”

Yes, it is, and nearly unwatchable.

The announcers on the Amazon Prime telecast sounded almost as disgusted as Carolina fans have been.

Said Al Michaels during the telecast as Carolina ran another play for zero yards: “This drive starts with nothing.”

Said Kirk Herbstreit a little later, describing the Panthers’ offensive line’s performance: “Just no push at all.”

The Tepper era: 30-61

Everything the Panthers have done in the David Tepper era — which began in 2018 and now has a 30-61 record through 91 games — has rightfully come into question.

One decision after another — from Tepper, from on-the-very-hot-seat GM Scott Fitterer, from Reich — has turned not to gold, but to dross. Carolina certainly does stuff — fires people, makes franchise-altering trades, changes play-callers — and all of it seems to have a less-than-zero effect.

Reich left open the possibility of taking back play-calling duties from offensive coordinator Thomas Brown on Friday, saying that would be evaluated like many other aspects of the team. Brown has called offensive plays for three games, and the Panthers have only had two offensive touchdowns in 12 quarters. It hasn’t worked any better than Reich calling plays, and arguably it may have been worse.

“I’ve got to look at everything,” Reich said.

Will this be worst Panthers team ever?

Reich also said in his Friday press conference that he thought the team’s receivers were getting “enough” separation, which begs the question: Exactly which wide receiver group is he watching?

The Panthers have never had a team with fewer downfield weapons.

In fact, this 2023 version may end up being the worst team Carolina has ever had — a 1-16 record is now a legitimate possibility, which would tunnel just below the 1-15 unit of 2001. But whether the Panthers hit that low-water mark or not, there’s no doubt this is definitely the worst multi-year stretch the team has ever endured on the field.

If you are one of those people who take pleasure in the misfortune of others, learn how to pronounce the word schadenfreude while you’re waiting until Nov. 19th when Carolina plays Dallas in Charlotte.

Not only will the Cowboys probably win that one by 20, but Dallas will also play the game in front of what will feel like a home crowd.

Can you blame any Panthers fan for selling their tickets for triple the value to a Dallas fan who’s far from home? I don’t. No one should be forced to watch what’s happening now.

A fourth-down mistake

The funny thing is that the Panthers’ defense and special teams actually have played well enough to win the past three weeks in a row. Take away Bryce Young’s two pick-6 interceptions vs. Indianapolis and that Carolina D, despite being very banged up, has allowed only 13, 13 and 16 points.

A team should go 3-0 when the defense is playing that well. Instead, Carolina is 1-2 in that stretch, which was the easiest bit of its schedule.

In a jarring moment, the Panthers’ No. 1 overall draft pick was outplayed Thursday night by an undrafted rookie from a Division II school in West Virginia. Tyson Bagent made more big plays than Young did, and that’s embarrassing, too.

I won’t get too much into the game here because it’s the weekend and no one wants to be unnecessarily depressed. But I couldn’t stand Reich’s decision to skip a 4th-and-10 and instead try a 59-yard field goal to tie the game at 16-all with 1:40 left in the game. The kick was short, and that was that.

But even if Eddy Pineiro had made the kick, Carolina would have only tied the game and at best would have been going to overtime. Let Young — who had already converted two fourth downs on the drive — have a shot at a signature march to win a game with a TD. Lord knows he needs something like that. And if the fourth down fails, so what? Everyone’s expecting the Panthers to lose anyway.

With more time to think about it, Reich admitted Friday, he should have gone for the fourth down, even though he said the percentages said to kick the field goal and try to get to overtime.

“I do feel like that in retrospect,” Reich said of wishing he went for the first down. “An outdoor 59-yard field goal is in the 40ish percentile. A fourth-and-10 conversion over the last lot of years is about 27%. So clearly the odds are in favor of kicking the field goal. But give Bryce that moment, in hindsight…. It’s easy to second-guess yourself, but I wish I had gone the other way.”

Give Reich credit for this: He’ll admit a mistake.

Many football coaches won’t and don’t. And I’ll say this too: Reich is a smart, decent, honest man.

But that decision was dead wrong, just like so much of what the Panthers have been doing in 2023 — and 2022, and 2021, and 2020, and 2019, and 2018 — has been wrong.

Brace yourself for more changes. There’s no doubt they are coming. But with this team, there’s considerable doubt they will make a bit of difference.