Changing demographics likely mean enrollment drop in Akron Public Schools over next decade

Changing demographics in the city of Akron could lead to a 3% drop in enrollment for Akron Public Schools over the next several years, a new forecast shows.

That means a possible drop of about 632 students by the 2026-27 school year, according to a report by Cropper GIS Consulting LLC. A smaller drop of 298 students, or about 1.5%, is forecasted for the following five years. The district's enrollment currently sits at 20,296 students.

"The primary factors causing the district's enrollment to decrease over the next 10 years is the increase in empty nest households, the relatively low number of elderly housing units turning over coupled with a flat rate of in-migration of young families," the report said.

The district, using about $50,000 of outside funding, hired the consultants to perform a 10-year enrollment forecast to be one piece of the puzzle used in decision-making around a long-term facilities plan the board will review in the coming weeks.

The forecasted numbers can help the district plan not just for physical spaces in the future but also levels of programming and services as enrollment grows or falls in different areas of the city.

"We want to both act in the here-and-now but also be mindful of the future as we make decisions," Superintendent Christine Fowler Mack said in an interview about the report.

Its findings were largely in line with what the district expected based on national trends of declining numbers of school-aged children, Fowler Mack said.

"I don’t think we see it as a drastic change," she said. "I think we see it as in line with what we have been experiencing."

The district previously lost 2.3% of its students, its first real enrollment hit in years, from 20,706 in September 2019 to 20,224 in September 2020, during the height of the pandemic. Enrollment actually grew slightly throughout that school year, despite the district remaining in remote learning, which frustrated some parents and pleased others. By May 2021, the district had 20,287 students, just a notch below current enrollment.

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The North cluster of schools has been the only one showing growth recently, buoying the district's overall enrollment to stay relatively stable over the last few years.

In the last seven years, the North cluster has grown in elementary school population by nearly 24%, according to district data shared with the board last March. Every other cluster's elementary population has dropped, as little as 6% in the Buchtel cluster to as much as 23% in Ellet.

The new forecast shows some of that North cluster growth slowing down. Harris Jackson Community Learning Center, an elementary school that is so over-capacity that its kindergarten classes were relocated to another building the last two school years, is forecasted to lose about 3% of its enrollment over the next 10 years, even as the overall population within its boundaries is expected to increase close to 10%.

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Fowler Mack said a final decision has not been made for next school year on where Harris Jackson's kindergarten classes will be housed, but it is highly likely they will continue to stay at Essex Early Learning Center another year. That building was closed once due to its condition but reopened as an early learning center for preschool classes and then added Harris Jackson kindergarteners.

The enrollment forecast report makes several assumptions, including that eligibility for a school voucher — to take public money to pay for a student to go to private school — is not significantly broadened. Gov. Mike DeWine last week in his State of the State address proposed such growth to the voucher program.

Fowler Mack said that's why this report will only be one piece of the puzzle. No major decisions will be based solely on its findings, she said.

"It’s information," she said. "We want to have as much information that’s available to us to just make the best decision possible."

Other outside factors not considered in the report could also play a role, like the International Institute of Akron's move to downtown. That could fuel further growth of immigrant populations in the near downtown areas.

On Wednesday, Fowler Mack will present to the board several months' worth of work developing a long-term operational plan.

The plan includes various scenarios about how the district could tackle its remaining facilities needs after the completion of the 15-plus-year project to replace most Akron schools with new or heavily renovated buildings now called community learning centers.

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But the district still has extensive needs, from overcrowding in the North cluster to the recently vacant former Kenmore high school building and an expiring lease with the University of Akron for use of the former Central-Hower building for National Inventors Hall of Fame STEM High School.

The Wednesday meeting is open to the public at the district's headquarter, 10 N. Main St., Akron. A finance committee meeting will then take place toward the end of the month to review financial aspects of the plan, and then the administration will bring recommendations to the board for approval at the Feb. 27 board meeting.

Contact education reporter Jennifer Pignolet at jpignolet@thebeaconjournal.com, at 330-996-3216 or on Twitter @JenPignolet.

This article originally appeared on Akron Beacon Journal: Slight enrollment drop forecasted in Akron Public Schools over decade