Charles C. Milliken: Understanding Russia as a criminal enterprise

In the ongoing brutal ugliness of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, a sudden surprise popped up as Yevgeny Prigozhin and his merry band of criminals known as the Wagner Group (a very un-Russian name) decided to stage a mutiny. It didn’t last long, but certainly spread a frisson of excitement while it lasted. Was this the end of Putin? Would Russian forces collapse in Ukraine from chaos in leadership? Could Prigozhin successfully march on Moscow? Would he become the new Putin? And so forth and so on.

A flurry of punditry instantly followed, because, as I well know, that is what pundits are for. Pick any outcome congenial to your point of view, and there was a pundit predicting exactly that. My favorite bit of pundit wisdom was one expert column explaining that Putin would stay in power as long as those around him supported him, and would be toast when those same people abandoned him. How’s that for a brilliant analysis? It appears, now that a couple of weeks have passed by, nothing much has changed (always dangerous writing in advance of events). I feel it my duty to explain why.

Russia, since October 1917, has been a criminal enterprise. That’s the first thing to know. For a few months after the downfall of Tsar Nicholas II (abandoned by those who supported him, so you see how solidly grounded in historic precedent the aforementioned prediction is), the Bolsheviks, a criminal conspiracy if there ever was one, took over, and Russia has been ruled by a self-serving mafia (once known as the “Nomenclatura”) ever since. Churchill, trying to understand what Russia was up to under the Bolsheviks, called it a “riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma.” Nothing has changed.

It is in the nature of criminal enterprises to be unpredictable, because all criminal enterprises are ruled by one boss with underlings vying for position and favors and eternally plotting to replace the boss. The history of the Mafia in this country is Russia writ small. Watching the “Godfather” trilogy will give you as much insight into Russia as anything. What will the gang do next? Up to the whim of the boss, and no more predictable than the boss, and always subject to the boss being gunned down in a barbershop or restaurant.

The only thing predictable about a criminal enterprise is that it is run for the benefit of the criminals. The Bolsheviks made great propaganda about being for the workers and peasants and soldiers, but the reality was entirely otherwise. They were only for themselves. If the workers and peasants and soldiers were immiserated and died by the millions, so what! Putin and his claque are similarly only for themselves. Battlefield deaths by the thousands are merely collateral damage.

Therefore, predictions must be based on what criminals always seem to want: power, money, prestige and a flavoring of sex thrown in for good measure. Can the Boss continue to deliver? Prigozhin, in charge of his own subordinate criminal enterprise — and composed of mostly adjudicated criminals — decided to make a move on the Big Boss, and quickly found out he wasn’t going to succeed. Those around Putin couldn’t see Prigozhen delivering any more power, money and prestige, so Prigozhin decided to cut a deal to save his neck and in essence go into exile. Whether or not that deal will hold remains to be seen, but personally I wouldn’t give a plugged nickel for his chances.

So now what? I don’t know. Predicting what any enterprise based on purely personal whim will do is, in the nature of things, unpredictable. Will Putin wake up tomorrow and decide the Ukraine “special operation” will fail and look for a face-saving exit? Will Putin even wake up tomorrow? Rumors of ill health have been around. Even under the last legitimate Russian polity, tsars had a way of turning up dead.

Hardly anyone saw the collapse of the old Soviet gang coming. I fearlessly predict that nothing has changed.

Charles Milliken is a professor emeritus after 22 years of teaching economics and related subjects at Siena Heights University. He can be reached at milliken.charles@gmail.com.

This article originally appeared on The Monroe News: Charles Milliken: Understanding Russia as a criminal enterprise