Charles Oliveira vs Islam Makhachev: Inside the most intriguing fight of the year at UFC 280

UFC 280 is perhaps the most-anticipated mixed martial arts event of the year, and its main event is arguably the most competitive fight that could be made at the sport’s highest level right now.

Charles Oliveira will face Islam Makhachev as the Brazilian looks to regain the vacant UFC lightweight title, while the Russian aims to obtain the gold that his childhood friend Khabib Nurmagomedov once held.

Upon Khabib’s retirement in 2020, the Dagestani relinquished the belt, which Oliveira (33-8, 1 No Contest) then won in May 2021 by knocking out Michael Chandler. In December, Oliveira retained the title by submitting Dustin Poirier, before he was stripped of the gold this May after missing weight – one day before a scheduled defence against Justin Gaethje.

Oliveira, 33, submitted Gaethje in the first round anyway to become No1 contender, and he was soon matched with Makhachev (22-1) – a childhood friend of Khabib, who also serves as one of the 31-year-old’s coaches. Oliveira arrives in Abu Dhabi on an 11-fight win streak, and he holds the records for the most finishes and most submissions in UFC history. Meanwhile, Makhachev has won his last 10 bouts and has only ever lost once as a professional.

Former UFC title challenger, commentator and analyst Dan Hardy tells The Independent where the lightweight championship bout will be won and lost.

How has your prediction for the fight changed, if at all, since it was first made?

“When the fight was first talked about, then when it was first matched, my initial thought was that it’s a little too soon for Makhachev against someone with Oliveira’s skillset – and most likely Oliveira is gonna catch him in the first round or early in the second with some kind of neck attack.

“Now I’ve spent over a week researching it, I’m closer to 50/50 than I ever thought I would be, because the times we’ve seen Oliveira struggle have been the times when he’s had a really good first round and run out of gas.

“The other thing that’s consistent as well, [especially when Oliveira fought at featherweight], is: Whenever he’s struggled with the scales, he’s struggled with his consistency in the fight itself. The fact that he missed weight for his last fight with Gaethje, it doesn’t bode well for him, I don’t think. He already looks like he’s gained loads more muscle mass since the last time we saw him as well. My concern is that the battle getting onto the scales will leave him with five-seven minutes in the tank, before Makhachev’s discipline and the economy of his skillset take over.”

Who will be more likely to fight in the other’s territory?

“I expect Oliveira to take the initiative with aggression. I think he’s gonna strike to grapple and try to make Makhachev feel very uncomfortable and flustered in that first round.

“But I think people are gonna be surprised that Oliveira will also most likely initiate the grappling. I think people are expecting Oliveira to want to keep the fight standing, and that if Makhachev decides he wants to take this to the floor, he’s gonna go for a double-leg [takedown] into an Oliveira guillotine [choke].

“But the more I watch Makhachev, the more I realise he only level-changes for takedowns on his terms; he doesn’t do it under pressure. He’s either level-changing [with his opponent] against the fence, or he’s throwing a one-two-uppercut or a jab-cross before he sets up his level-change.

“Whenever people are attacking him, like Oliveira is most likely going to be doing, it’s all body-locks, trips, throws, Harai Goshis [a type of judo throw], Sambo techniques. They’re much safer to use in the clinch, as opposed to level-changes into [opponents’] guillotines.”

What effect will Khabib have in Makhachev’s corner?

“This isn’t just the lightweight belt that Makhachev is trying to win; this is Khabib’s old belt, and Khabib is in his corner.

“Oliveira doesn’t put that same pressure on himself; he considers himself the champ. He could get knocked out or choked in this fight and he’ll still think he’s the champ, but Makhachev could lose the first round and feel like he’s already lost the entire fight.

“We just don’t know where that psychology is gonna fall as he sits on his stool. The question around Makhachev for me is: Where is his confidence gonna be if he loses the first round big? If Oliveira comes out, cracks him with a big right hand, clamps onto his neck, drags him to the floor and takes his back, Makhachev might go back to Khabib in his corner on the back of losing a 10-8 round.

“I don’t think that would bother Oliveira [if it happened to him]. Oliveira gets knocked down in most of his fights, he’s been submitted before – losing is a part of winning for him; he’s happy to put pressure on you and take a knockdown shot in order to make you tired. But if Makhachev loses that first round, where does his confidence go?”

Oliveira seems to sometimes ‘feign’ knockdowns to lure opponents to the mat. Do you think Makhachev could fall into that trap, or will he be confident enough on the ground that he won’t see that situation as a trap?

“Pressure makes people do things they don’t necessarily want to do. I feel like Makhachev might do that – especially if it’s the first round, with the excitement and anxiety – but on the flipside, he’s probably gonna feel like he can hang on the floor because of his wrestling skills.

“So, it might not be as dangerous, but it still wouldn’t be a wise thing to do. I’d want to make sure Oliveira was really hurt before I followed him to the floor, absolutely.”

Watch UFC 280 live on BT Sport Box Office from 5pm on Saturday 22 October. Coverage of the prelims are available to watch for free on YouTube, btsport.com, BT Sport App and BT Sport Box Office App. https://www.bt.com/sport/box-office