Charlotte is approaching peak COVID-19 levels seen over the summer, latest data show

The number of people hospitalized and others who have tested positive for coronavirus in Mecklenburg County is now nearly at the same level seen during a peak point in July, the latest analysis of health data shows.

The Charlotte area saw a peak in COVID-19 cases in mid-July, health officials have previously said. At that time, state orders required bars and many other businesses to remain closed and restaurants were limited to 50% capacity.

A Charlotte Observer analysis of state and local figures Tuesday finds a rising caseload in recent weeks has again pushed the county close to that same peak. Statewide, the number of new cases has already passed North Carolina’s previous high, based on data from the N.C. Department of Health and Human Services.

An average of 300 new cases has been reported each day among Mecklenburg County residents for the first two weeks of November, according to data released Tuesday by the health department. That’s slightly less than the peak point in July when, based on the health department’s figures, an average of 328 new daily cases were reported throughout a two-week span.

Mecklenburg saw a significant improvement in slowing the spread of the virus in August and most of September. But since then, the seven-day average of new lab-confirmed cases has been rising.

Hospitalizations have also increased and are again nearing the peak seen in July, when an average of nearly 200 people per day were hospitalized with COVID-19. This week, the average number of hospitalizations hit 172 — the highest it’s been since early August.

Without a slowdown, both the number of people hospitalized and the number of new cases could soon surpass the county’s July peak.

The current positivity rate, though, is lower than over the summer, county data show. In July, the percent of positive tests, which also included non-county residents tested here, hovered around 11%.

This week, health officials said the positivity rate — only including Mecklenburg residents — is around 8.2%.

As of Tuesday, Mecklenburg has seen a total of 38,733 residents diagnosed with COVID-19 cases. Since March, 421 residents have died related to the coronavirus.

And the positivity rates for surrounding counties reflect a higher spread of COVID-19 in those counties, health director Gibbie Harris has said. Lincoln, Gaston, Catawba, Iredell, Rowan and Cabarrus counties are all reporting higher rates of positive COVID-19 tests, according to state data.

All of those counties have surpassed their previous COVID-19 peaks, state data show.

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