Check out the first playoff predictions for the 2022 Kentucky high school football season
The Kentucky High School Athletic Association has released its first Ratings Percentage Index football ratings of the season, allowing the first glimpse of what the playoff picture could look like come November.
The current No. 1 teams in the RPI ratings are Hazard (Class A), Mayfield (2A), Bardstown (3A), Boyle County (4A), Frederick Douglass (5A) and Ballard (6A).
The playoffs are scheduled to begin Nov. 4, with state finals set for Dec. 2-4 at the University of Kentucky’s Kroger Field in Lexington.
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Before taking a class-by-class look at possible playoff matchups, here are a few reminders about the RPI:
The RPI will be used to determine playoff matchups in the third round and beyond. In the first two rounds of the playoffs, teams will play corresponding districts, with District One vs. District Two, Three vs. Four, Five vs. Six and Seven vs. Eight. The first-place team will host the fourth-place team from the opposite district, and the second-place team will host the third-place team. The winners will meet in the second round.
The RPI is a calculation of winning percentage (35%), opponents’ winning percentage (35%) and opponents’ opponents winning percentage (30%). Margin of victory is not a part of the formula. Out-of-state opponents are given a .5106 winning percentage. This is the fourth year the KHSAA is using the RPI system for playoff pairings.
The KHSAA also is using a “game value factor” with the RPI formula, based on a 15% difference as class sizes become larger. The game value factors are 1.323 for Class A, 1.521 for 2A, 1.749 for 3A, 2.011 for 4A, 2.313 for 5A and 2.660 for 6A. The “game value factor” helps explain why teams in small-school classes, on average, have higher ratings than teams in big-school classes.
The KHSAA is publishing team-by-team data on its website in an attempt to make the calculations transparent.
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Here’s a look at how each class breaks down. Playoff projections are based on the top two rated teams in each district group advancing to the third round and the higher-rated team winning each game the rest of the way.
Matchups in the third round of the playoffs include a geographical factor, with winners in Districts 1-4 in one group and winners in District 5-8 in another group. There are no geographical factors involved for state semifinal matchups.
Class A
Top five teams: 1. Hazard .78331; 2. Bracken County .77155; 3. Holy Cross .76592; 4. Williamsburg .74831; 5. Bethlehem .70574
Third-round playoff matchups: Newport Central Catholic at Holy Cross; Kentucky Country Day at Bethlehem; Nicholas County at Hazard; Williamsburg at Bracken County
Semifinal matchups: Bethlehem at Hazard; Holy Cross at Bracken County
Championship game: Bracken County vs. Hazard
Notable: Pikeville (2-2) is the defending Class A champion but is ranked No. 13 in the RPI.
Class 2A
Top five teams: 1. Mayfield .83741; 2. McLean County .82988; 3. Beechwood .82104; 4. Hancock County .75502; 5. Butler County .70165.
Third-round playoff matchups: Metcalfe County at Mayfield; Somerset at McLean County; Lloyd Memorial at Beechwood; Breathitt County at Middlesboro
Semifinal matchups: Middlesboro at Mayfield; Beechwood at McLean County
Championship game: McLean County vs. Mayfield
Notable: Lexington Christian (2-3) has lost to Beechwood in the past two Class 2A finals but is ranked No. 15 in the RPI.
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Class 3A
Top five teams: 1. Bardstown .84134; 2. Trigg County .79561; 3. Mason County .78545; 4. Christian Academy .75336; 5. Union County .70988.
Third-round playoff matchups: Union County at Bardstown; Christian Academy at Trigg County; Greenup County at Mason County; East Carter at Bell County
Semifinal matchups: Bell County at Bardstown; Mason County at Trigg County
Championship game: Trigg County vs. Bardstown
Notable: Belfry (2-3) is the defending Class 3A champion but is ranked No. 22 in the RPI.
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Class 4A
Top five teams: 1. Boyle County .80748; 2. Corbin .75821; 3. Spencer County .73782; 4. Lexington Catholic .73492; 5. Perry County Central .63308.
Third-round playoff matchups: Central at Spencer County; Logan County at Warren East; Perry County Central at Boyle County; Lexington Catholic at Corbin
Semifinal matchups: Warren East at Boyle County; Spencer County at Corbin
Championship game: Corbin vs. Boyle County
Notable: Johnson Central (3-2) has reached six of the past seven Class 4A championship games but is ranked No. 9 in the RPI.
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Class 5A
Top five teams: 1. Frederick Douglass .71413; 2. Covington Catholic .71051; 3. Woodford County .69162; 4. Scott County .68821; 5. Bowling Green .68146,
Third-round playoff matchups: Seneca at Bowling Green; Fairdale at Greenwood; Southwestern at Frederick Douglass; Woodford County at Covington Catholic
Semifinal matchups: Greenwood at Frederick Douglass; Bowling Green at Covington Catholic
Championship game: Covington Catholic vs. Frederick Douglass
Notable: South Warren (2-2) is the defending Class 5A champion but is ranked No. 15 in the RPI.
Class 6A
Top five teams: 1. Ballard .67064; 2. George Rogers Clark .64691; 3. Manual .63900; 4. St. Xavier .62033; 5. Madison Central .59316.
Third-round playoff matchups: Daviess County at Manual; Henderson County at St. Xavier; Ryle at Ballard; Madison Central at George Rogers Clark
Semifinal matchups: St. Xavier at Ballard; Manual at George Rogers Clark
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Championship game: George Rogers Clark vs. Ballard
Notable: Louisville powers Male (No. 6 in RPI) and Trinity (No. 11 in RPI) are not projected to make the third round of the playoffs.
Jason Frakes: 502-582-4046; jfrakes@courier-journal.com; Twitter: @kyhighs.
This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: KHSAA football RPI: Projected playoff matchups for all six classes
