A cherished Kentucky basketball streak is looking safe in 2023-24

Mark Story
·5 min read

For my money, the most impressive sports achievement the commonwealth of Kentucky can claim is this:

In every men’s NCAA basketball tournament held after 1963, our relatively small state has had at least one team in the field.

With John Calipari’s Kentucky Wildcats (15-4, No. 23 in the NCAA NET rankings) appearing to be in a good place to secure, at the very least, an at-large bid to the 2024 NCAA Tournament, our state’s Big Dance streak is likely safe for another season.

Even better, if postseason conference tournaments began today, at least two other Kentucky teams would be favored to capture automatic bids for the NCAA Tournament.

Listed in order of the likelihood I think each team has of making the NCAA tourney, let’s examine the odds each of the commonwealth’s men’s Division I basketball programs has of reaching the ultimate level of March Madness in 2024:

Kentucky

Record: 15-4 overall; 5-2, tied for third in SEC.

NET ranking: No. 23, which ranks fourth-highest among SEC teams.

Odds of making the NCAA Tournament: High. Joe Lunardi projected UK as a 4 seed in his most recent bracketology at ESPN.com. Yet with only two Quad 1 wins to date, the Wildcats actually have a rather light NCAA Tournament profile for a team aspiring to a high seed.

A loaded February schedule is going to give the Cats ample chances to enhance their tourney résumé.

As the NET rankings presently stand, Kentucky has five Quad 1 chances ahead — Feb. 3 vs. NET No. 3 Tennessee; Feb. 17 at No. 9 Auburn; Feb. 24 vs. No. 7 Alabama; Feb. 27 at No. 27 Mississippi State; and March 9 at No. 3 Tennessee. Gonzaga, at No. 31 in the NET, would need to move up only one place to make UK’s Feb. 10 contest with Mark Few’s Bulldogs at Rupp Arena a sixth Quad 1 opportunity.

Obviously, Kentucky’s chances of making the deep NCAA Tournament run that a restive Big Blue Nation yearns for would be enhanced by climbing the seed ladder.

Kentucky forward Tre Mitchell (4) grabs a loose ball during Saturday’s game against Arkansas. He’s averaging 13.4 points, 7.7 rebounds and 3.3 assists this season.
Kentucky forward Tre Mitchell (4) grabs a loose ball during Saturday’s game against Arkansas. He’s averaging 13.4 points, 7.7 rebounds and 3.3 assists this season.

Morehead State

Record: 16-5; 7-1, first place in the OVC.

NET ranking: No. 103, first among OVC teams.

NCAA Tournament odds: Good. In a one-bid league such as the Ohio Valley Conference, there are no guarantees. A season ago, Morehead entered the league tourney as the top seed only to be upset in the semifinals by Southeast Missouri State.

Still, earning the most favorable seed should be the best path through a league tournament. So the immediate goal for Preston Spradlin’s current Eagles is to play well enough down the stretch to hold onto the No. 1 seed for this year’s OVC Tournament. That will be a challenge, as Morehead will play four road games in February against teams that currently have winning OVC records.

Preston Spradlin is trying to coach Morehead State to its second NCAA Tournament appearance since 2021.
Preston Spradlin is trying to coach Morehead State to its second NCAA Tournament appearance since 2021.

Eastern Kentucky

Record: 11-9; 7-0, first place in the ASUN.

NET ranking: No. 206, second among ASUN teams.

NCAA Tournament odds: Decent. Winning the regular-season league title is more meaningful in the ASUN than in some other leagues because the higher seed hosts throughout the conference tournament.

Coach A.W. Hamilton’s Colonels will have to earn the ASUN regular-season championship on the road — six of EKU’s nine remaining league games will be played away from Richmond.

Eastern Kentucky coach A.W. Hamilton is trying to lead the Colonels to their first men’s NCAA basketball tournament appearance since 2014.
Eastern Kentucky coach A.W. Hamilton is trying to lead the Colonels to their first men’s NCAA basketball tournament appearance since 2014.

Western Kentucky

Record: 14-6, 3-3, tied for third in Conference USA.

NET ranking: No. 150, third among C-USA teams.

NCAA Tournament odds: Low, but not impossible. WKU’s hopes of earning its first NCAA tourney trip in a decade rest largely on the head coaching pedigree of new Hilltoppers head man Steve Lutz. In both of his prior two seasons as a head coach, Lutz won Southland Conference tournaments to take Texas A&M-Corpus Christi to the NCAA Tournament.

New Western Kentucky University men’s basketball coach Steve Lutz has said his primary goal in his new job is to end the Hilltoppers’ NCAA Tournament drought. WKU has not played in the NCAA tourney since 2013.
New Western Kentucky University men’s basketball coach Steve Lutz has said his primary goal in his new job is to end the Hilltoppers’ NCAA Tournament drought. WKU has not played in the NCAA tourney since 2013.

Northern Kentucky

Record: 11-11; 6-5, tied for fifth in the Horizon League.

NET ranking: No. 196, fifth among Horizon League teams.

NCAA Tournament odds: A lot less than they were on Dec. 21, when NKU standout guard Sam Vinson (averages of 13.3 points, 5.1 rebounds, 3.2 assists and 2.6 steals) was lost for the season to a torn ACL. You can’t completely count Darrin Horn’s Norse out because Northern Kentucky has a history of playing well in the Horizon League tourney, having won it four times in seven years.

Northern Kentucky guard Marques Warrick, right, the former Henry Clay High School star, will seek to lead NKU to its second straight Horizon League Tournament title.
Northern Kentucky guard Marques Warrick, right, the former Henry Clay High School star, will seek to lead NKU to its second straight Horizon League Tournament title.

Murray State

Record: 8-13; 5-5, tied for 6th in the Missouri Valley Conference.

NET ranking: No. 161, 6th in the MVC.

NCAA Tournament odds: Not great. Coach Steve Prohm’s Racers have had a challenging go so far in 2023-24. The latest example came Saturday when MSU lost 60-58 at home to Southern Illinois in a game Murray led 55-35 with 14:10 remaining. With Indiana State (18-3, 9-1) and Drake (17-4, 8-2), the MVC is really strong at the top this season.

Murray State coach Steve Prohm has gone 25-28 so far in his second stint as head man of the Racers. Prohm went 104-29 in his first run as Murray State head man from 2011 through 2015.
Murray State coach Steve Prohm has gone 25-28 so far in his second stint as head man of the Racers. Prohm went 104-29 in his first run as Murray State head man from 2011 through 2015.

Louisville

Record: 6-14; 1-8, last in the ACC.

NET ranking: No. 231, last among ACC teams.

NCAA Tournament odds: Abysmal. It would take one of the miracle runs through a league tournament of all time for Kenny Payne’s struggling Cardinals to go dancing. The bad news for U of L backers who want the 2023-24 season to go so far off the rails that the school has no choice but to change coaches is that Louisville has five games in February against teams with losing records in ACC play.

Through Saturday’s loss to Virginia, Kenny Payne has a 10-42 record as coach of the Louisville Cardinals.
Through Saturday’s loss to Virginia, Kenny Payne has a 10-42 record as coach of the Louisville Cardinals.

Bellarmine

Record: 5-17 overall; 1-6 and last in the ASUN Conference.

NET Ranking: No. 318, lowest among ASUN teams.

NCAA Tournament hopes: None. Beyond the fact that coach Scott Davenport’s Knights have suffered through an adversity-filled campaign that has, so far, yielded only two wins over other NCAA Division I teams, Bellarmine is in the final year of its four-year transition period after moving from Division II to Division I.

The good news is that this will be the final season in which Bellarmine remains ineligible for the NCAA tourney.

This is the final season that Bellarmine and head coach Scott Davenport will be ineligible to play in the NCAA Tournament due to the four-year transition period the NCAA mandates for programs that move up from Division II to Division I.
This is the final season that Bellarmine and head coach Scott Davenport will be ineligible to play in the NCAA Tournament due to the four-year transition period the NCAA mandates for programs that move up from Division II to Division I.

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