Chicago Bears Q&A: Could the Jaylon Johnson situation result in a trade? Will Justin Fields be the franchise’s 1st 4,000-yard passer?

The Chicago Bears are in the midst of their first week of organized team activities, but not everyone is present at Halas Hall for the voluntary sessions. Cornerback Jaylon Johnson’s absence Tuesday raised a few eyebrows, and Brad Biggs’ weekly Bears mailbag begins with a question about that situation.

Are we headed for another Roquan (Smith)-type situation with Jaylon Johnson? I get the sense Ryan Poles would rather move on from a player who rustles contract feathers than reward them. I can envision using him as a trade opportunity for a need midseason. — @obsidianarcade

I think you’re probably overreacting to the news that Johnson, for the second year, has not reported for the voluntary portion of the offseason program. Would the Bears prefer Johnson was there? Sure. Will missing OTAs — and keep in mind, Johnson could show up any day — affect his 2023 season? Probably not. Some players pick and choose when they want to show up, and that’s their right. It’s especially their right if they don’t have a workout bonus tied to attendance during the offseason program.

Smith was present for the offseason program a year ago, and I don’t think this is an apples-to-apples comparison. He was going to command a contract at or near the top of the pay scale for off-the-ball linebackers, and I don’t think Johnson will be in that category for cornerbacks. Johnson might like to be in that rich neighborhood, but I’d be surprised if the Bears value him at that level. Johnson turned 24 last month and pretty much has been the team’s best cornerback since arriving. The Bears added competition in the draft with Tyrique Stevenson in the second round and Terell Smith in the fifth to go with Kyler Gordon, a second-round pick a year ago. Good teams always have a stable of quality cornerbacks.

Perhaps Johnson’s absence is tied to his desire to receive a contract extension, but he also skipped voluntary portions a year ago when he wasn’t eligible for a payday. The Bears surely would want some level of discount if they extend Johnson with a year to go on his contract, and Johnson would want market value that free agents command. We’ll have to see where this goes, but judging by Poles’ unprompted comments about Johnson on draft weekend, I think he’d like to keep the player he inherited around.

“Jaylon, I hope he’s a guy we get to keep here for a while too,” Poles said after Day 2 of the draft. “So I’m excited about that group, inside and outside, and the depth of it as well.”

With the additions on offense and expectations for a vastly improved passing offense, will this be the season the Bears finally have a 4,000-yard passer? Is Justin Fields the man to accomplish that feat? — Dennis S., Countryside

You’re talking about one of the statistical anomalies that comes with the Bears franchise and the invention of the forward pass. The Bears are the only NFL team not to have a quarterback pass for 4,000 yards in a season. They are also the only team not to have a quarterback with 30 touchdown passes in a season. Fields averaged 149.5 passing yards per game last year and would need to average more than 235 in a full 17 games to reach that plateau this season.

It certainly seems doable — and the addition of wide receiver DJ Moore stood out at Tuesday’s OTA that was open to media — but Fields would have to remain healthy and be a lot more productive. The Bears have had only 11 3,000-yard passers in their history, the last one Mitch Trubisky in 2019 and the first Bill Wade in 1962. Erik Kramer came closest to 4,000 yards in 1995, when he finished with 3,838.

The Bears had company with the Philadelphia Eagles until Carson Wentz became their first 4,000-yard passer in 2019. A total of 217 quarterbacks have reached 4,000 yards in a season, the first being Joe Namath with the New York Jets in 1967.

The addition of a 17th regular-season game should make it easier to achieve, but the small sample size doesn’t show a bump yet. Here are the 4,000-yard seasons since 2016:

• 2022: 9 (17-game season)

• 2021: 10 (17-game season)

• 2020: 12

• 2019: 9

• 2018: 12

• 2017: 8

• 2016: 12

And here’s a list of every franchise’s first 4,000-yard passer by decade:

1960s: 1

• Jets: Joe Namath, 1967

1970s: 1

• Chargers: Dan Fouts, 1979

1980s: 8

• Browns: Brian Sipe, 1980

• Packers: Lynn Dickey, 1983

• Chiefs: Bill Kenney, 1983

• Cardinals: Neil Lomax, 1984

• Dolphins: Dan Marino, 1984

• Giants: Phil Simms, 1984

• Commanders: Jay Schroeder, 1986

• Rams: Jim Everett, 1989

1990s: 11

• Titans: Warren Moon, 1990

• Broncos: John Elway, 1993

• 49ers: Steve Young, 1993

• Vikings: Warren Moon, 1994

• Patriots: Drew Bledsoe, 1994

• Falcons: Jeff George, 1995

• Lions: Scott Mitchell, 1995

• Ravens: Vinny Testaverde, 1996

• Jaguars: Mark Brunell, 1996

• Panthers: Steve Beuerlein, 1999

• Colts: Peyton Manning, 1999

2000s: 7

• Bills: Drew Bledsoe, 2002

• Raiders: Rich Gannon, 2002

• Bengals: Carson Palmer, 2006

• Saints: Drew Brees, 2006

• Cowboys: Tony Romo, 2007

• Texans: Matt Schaub, 2009

• Steelers: Ben Roethlisberger, 2009

2010s: 3

• Buccaneers: Josh Freeman, 2012

• Seahawks: Russell Wilson, 2015

• Eagles: Carson Wentz, 2019

It’s worth noting Hall of Famer Moon (Titans and Vikings) and Bledsoe (Patriots and Bills) were the first 4,000-yard passer for two franchises.

Do you think the new third quarterback rule affects who the Bears keep as QB3? — @gucasliogito

It will be really interesting to see how teams approach roster management. The new rule the league approved, which the Detroit Lions proposed, will allow teams to dress a third quarterback who won’t count against the game-day roster. However, it’s important to note this QB cannot come from the practice squad, so teams will have to carry three QBs on their 53-man roster to designate the emergency guy. Many organizations have gone to carrying only two QBs on the 53-man roster in order to maximize flexibility at other positions, so that will be interesting to track.

The rule was proposed after San Francisco 49ers quarterbacks Brock Purdy and Josh Johnson were knocked out of the NFC championship game, forcing the team to use running back Christian McCaffrey as a wildcat quarterback.

The emergency third quarterback can be used only if the first two quarterbacks are sidelined by injuries. It will be interesting to see how many teams revert to what used to be commonplace — three QBs on the 53-man roster — to utilize this rule. As far as it affecting the Bears, rookie Tyson Bagent is a long shot to make the team coming from Division III Shepherd. But you never know.

How do you see the starting defensive line going into Week 1? Left to right, DeMarcus Walker, Andrew Billings, Justin Jones and Trevis Gipson? Think any second-teamers like Rasheem Green or the two rookie defensive tackles can win a job in camp? — @themaxconnor1

That looks right to me, but there is so much work to do on the field — with full pads — in training camp that a lot can change. If I had to bet, I would wager Ryan Poles adds a defensive end at some point. Does that mean the newcomer would be a starter in the base defense? Perhaps. It’s also possible a newcomer would be a designated pass rusher, essentially a starter in the nickel package.

Rookies Gervon Dexter and Zacch Pickens will have an opportunity to push for a starting job, but that might not happen immediately. The key for them is playing time. As long as they are part of the regular rotation, their snap counts will be based on performance. The better they play, the more action they will get.

I’ve looked at every Tribune article regarding the Bears stadium move and I’ve never found an answer to this question: If they get the site, funding and OK to build, what is the seating capacity expected to be? When the city offered to build the indoor stadium away from the lake, the capacity quoted was around 83,000. — Kevin, Chicago

If the Bears have shared a ballpark figure for seating capacity in their proposed domed stadium in Arlington Heights, I have not seen it. I have written about this topic a few times after speaking with Marc Ganis, president of Chicago-based sports consulting firm Sportscorp, who is an expert on these matters. His projection is something definitely larger than Soldier Field, which has the smallest capacity in the NFL at 61,500. But he doesn’t envision something as large as some have hoped.

“I doubt they will go that large,” Ganis said of the 81,441 capacity at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, the second-largest in the league. “High 60s would be the right number. There’s an odd cost factor associated with the geometry of the stadium. The most expensive seats to construct are the seats furthest away from the field as you expand the building. As you increase the capacity, you have to expand the size of the entire building. So you add five rows at the top of the stadium to add another few thousand seats. Those are the most expensive seats to build while being the seats that generate the lowest revenue.

“Is it 66,000? 69,000? Do they have an ability to have standing room to get it to 72,000? That is the general range.”

Here’s the seating capacity for NFL stadiums constructed since the Cardinals moved into State Farm Stadium in 2006:

• Rams and Chargers, SoFi Stadium (2020): 70,000

• Raiders, Allegiant Stadium (2020): 65,000-*

• Falcons, Mercedes-Benz Stadium (2017): 71,000-*

• Vikings, U.S. Bank Stadium (2016): 66,655-*

• 49ers, Levi’s Stadium (2014): 68,500

• Giants and Jets, MetLife Stadium (2010): 82,500

• Cowboys, AT&T Stadium (2009): 80,000-**

• Colts, Lucas Oil Stadium (2008): 67,000

• Cardinals, State Farm Stadium (2006): 63,400-*

* dome, ** retractable roof

Currently, 16 stadiums — including Soldier Field — have a listed capacity below 70,000. Fourteen are between 65,000 and 69,596. It’s noteworthy that the Buffalo Bills, who are building a new venue to replace Highmark Stadium, will have a smaller building. Highmark Stadium’s capacity is 71,608. The new open-air stadium reportedly will have a capacity in the neighborhood of 62,000.