Chicago Bears Q&A: Does the Sam Darnold trade end any hope for a Russell Wilson deal? What’s the QB plan for the draft? Why not keep Kyle Fuller over Jimmy Graham?

The NFL draft is three weeks away, and quarterback questions are on the minds of Chicago Bears fans and filling up Brad Biggs’ weekly Bears mailbag. Did the Bears move too early in signing Andy Dalton? And in what round will they target a quarterback?

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Does Sam Darnold getting traded to the Carolina Panthers officially put an end to any hope the Bears had of trading for Russell Wilson? — Max H., Glen Ellyn

Does Sam Darnold getting traded to the Carolina Panthers officially put an end to any hope the Bears had of trading for Russell Wilson? — Max H., Glen Ellyn

The first thing to keep in mind is the odds of the Seattle Seahawks moving Wilson this offseason seemed incredibly long all along. That hasn’t changed. Even if Seahawks general manager John Schneider is still willing to discuss the availability of any player on his roster, that doesn’t mean a deal is there to be made. The massive stumbling block to any trade has always been what would the Seahawks do for a quarterback if they shipped Wilson out? The Bears can’t provide them with the draft capital required to get one of the top quarterbacks in this draft. The Bears don’t have so much as a bridge quarterback to send to Seattle in return. Trading Wilson would immediately move the Seahawks from the haves to the have-nots when it comes to franchise quarterbacks. As Bears fans know all too well, no one wants to be in the have-not club.

Some speculated the Seahawks might be interested in Darnold, even after three lousy seasons with the New York Jets. Darnold is a reclamation project, and there’s no getting around the fact he was terrible for the Jets. With Darnold in Carolina now, I don’t know if it kills the possibility of a Wilson trade, but you’re going to struggle to convince me there’s an obtainable replacement for Wilson out there. Add in the fact the Seahawks would take a $39 million dead cap hit this season if they trade Wilson before June 1, and there’s so much about a potential deal that doesn’t make sense. Why would Pete Carroll, nearing the end of his career, want to reboot at quarterback coming off a 12-4 season and knowing his team should be in the mix with Wilson? Surely, Carroll wants to keep Wilson for the same reasons the Bears would love to acquire him.

Seems to me the Bears would be way better off if they had given up what the Carolina Panthers did to acquire Sam Darnold rather than signing Andy Dalton for $10 million. Am I wrong? — Dennis S., Frankfort

The Panthers sent the Jets three draft picks — a sixth-rounder this year and second- and fourth-round picks in 2022 — to obtain Darnold, who was selected third overall in 2018. The first thing to keep in mind is the Jets were not open to trading Darnold back when the new league year opened March 17, as they were still compiling research on the potential quarterbacks in this draft (see: BYU’s Zach Wilson). Is it possible GM Joe Douglas would have pulled the trigger on a Darnold deal then? You can’t rule it out, but someone would have had to pay a much greater price than the Panthers did in taking a flier on Darnold as a replacement for Teddy Bridgewater. The Panthers are hoping coach Matt Rhule and offensive coordinator Joe Brady can quickly fix much of what has been wrong with Darnold. This is no sure thing. Since the start of the 2018 season, Darnold’s passer rating ranks 41st out of 42 quarterbacks with a minimum of 500 pass attempts. Are we really going to blame Adam Gase for all of that?

There’s a risk here for the Panthers, too, as they have to pick up the fifth-year option for 2022 in Darnold’s contract. That means they’re on the hook for $4.6 million for Darnold this season and $18.8 million next year. If Darnold struggles, the Panthers are right back where they started a year from now — without their second- and fourth-round picks. Sure, Darnold has all of the physical traits you seek in a young quarterback, but the Panthers coaching staff will have to undo a lot to make him a guy they can build around and win with moving forward. I’m not sure the Bears liked the idea of a reclamation project considering the circumstances GM Ryan Pace and coach Matt Nagy find themselves in this season. If Darnold plays well for the Panthers, it will be an opportunity missed for the Bears. I don’t know that a lot of folks — even those in Carolina — believe there is a great chance that will happen.

While I like your mock draft 1.0 selection of Caleb Farley at cornerback in Round 1, I think Matt Nagy is under too much pressure as the offensive guru he was hired to be not to do everything he can to improve the side of the ball that has been abysmal for so long. I think the strategy should be to use the first three picks on OT, WR and CB in that order. Offensive tackle first since the Bears have been totally inept running the ball except against the worst teams in the league. Teven Jenkins or Jalen Mayfield should be available and would be a huge boost for David Montgomery in the running game and much-needed pass protection for Andy Dalton/Nick Foles. I’m not too worried about the Germain Ifedi investment. He’ll likely get plenty of playing time somewhere on the line and can push others on the roster. I’m thinking either Rondale Moore, Elijah Moore or D’Wayne Eskridge will be available at No. 52, and pairing any one of them with Allen Robinson and Darnell Mooney would provide the big-play ability this team has been lacking. At No. 84, take the best outside cornerback available like Eric Stokes or Paulson Adebo to provide competition for Desmond Trufant and the other CBs on the roster, hoping that Trufant can stay healthy. I say don’t waste a top-three pick on a QB that won’t help in 2021 like Kyle Trask or Kellen Mond. Instead, take a flier on Jamie Newman in the fifth round, as he should be available. He has bigger upside with his dual-threat ability but may take a couple years to develop. What do you think of this strategy? — Dan G., Phoenix

You could definitely be on to something with the idea that Nagy would like to use the team’s greatest remaining resource — the first-round draft pick — to add to the offense. Along those lines, I’m sure the Bears are carefully monitoring how they believe quarterbacks will come off the board in Round 1 and what the chances are that one they really like slips into the teens and toward where they are sitting at No. 20. They are definitely evaluating all of the wide receivers who could be worthy of a pick in Round 1 or really the top half of the draft. I can put together a strong case for drafting an offensive tackle. The Bears have not used a first-round pick on that position since selecting Gabe Carimi in 2011. It’s a good draft for tackles, and with some luck, the Bears could get a starting right tackle in the first round, a young player with the athletic ability to potentially move to the left side later in his career. However, as I have detailed, the team is super tight when it comes to the salary cap, and I just don’t see the Bears using a decent chunk of their precious available space on Ifedi ($4.25 million contract) to turn around and draft his replacement. That’s a lot of money for a cap-strapped team to wrap up in a swing tackle. Maybe you are correct, but the tea leaves I am reading lead me away from an offensive tackle in Round 1.

I also strongly believe the Bears will attempt to add a quarterback in the top three rounds. There isn’t much excitement about a depth chart that currently has only Andy Dalton and Nick Foles, and the coaching staff surely would like to have a rookie with some traits they believe can be developed. I don’t think that is a project the Bears will wait for Day 3 to address, especially when you consider they’re without a fourth-round pick as a result of the trade up last year to select outside linebacker Trevis Gipson. You are definitely correct that the Bears can find a pretty darn good wide receiver in Round 2, and really the depth at that position should carry through the third round. It will be interesting to see how this pans out. One thing that would add flexibility to consider more options is if the Bears could trade down from No. 20 to the end of Round 1 and add more picks. I don’t know that a deal will fall in their lap, but it’s something to keep in the back of your mind.

I noticed you had the Bears taking Virginia Tech cornerback Caleb Farley at No. 20 in your first mock draft. Who do you think they take with their second- and third-round picks? Since they signed Germain Ifedi to a $4.25 million deal, do you think they wait to draft a developmental tackle until the fifth round? — Dan G., Emmaus, Pa

Surely you have not felt like there is a lack of coverage when it comes to the team’s quarterback situation. The Bears have to come out of this draft with a prospect worth investing some time in. That’s paramount to the plan Ryan Pace and Matt Nagy have hatched for the future and to the overall future of the organization. Maybe the Bears swing and miss, but they have to take a swing at the position when their anointed QB1, Andy Dalton, is — at best — a bridge option. One thing to keep an eye on is what happens with Alabama quarterback Mac Jones. Many believe he’s ticketed for the San Francisco 49ers after they traded up from No. 12 to No. 3. That could be the case, but some I have spoken with figure the Niners are targeting North Dakota State’s Trey Lance. I bring this up because if the 49ers pass on Jones, he could be on the board for a while. In that scenario, maybe Jones sticks around long enough for the Bears to be able to make a modest trade up from No. 20 to get him. That’s something to keep in mind if the 49ers call a name other than Jones at No. 3.

What are the chances that the Bears trade down in the first round? There’s been talk that Atlanta could be shopping its pick. — @toren28young

The Falcons hold the No. 4 pick, so I believe you mean trading up from where the Bears currently sit at No. 20. It’s fair to assume at this point that quarterbacks will be the first three picks off the board with the Jacksonville Jaguars (Trevor Lawrence) and New York Jets (Zach Wilson) positioned and the San Francisco 49ers surely eyeing a passer after their blockbuster trade up from No. 12 to No. 3. The Falcons are reportedly open for business when it comes to the fourth pick, and that could mean a deal with a team looking to add a quarterback or the first non-quarterback to be drafted. It’s smart business for new Falcons GM Terry Fontenot to listen to offers in the event someone blows him away with a massive haul of draft picks as Atlanta’s roster seems to be in limbo. Some believe the Falcons could stay put and draft a quarterback to bring along behind Matt Ryan. It seems highly unlikely the Bears could trade up to No. 4 or anywhere near it. It would be one thing for Chairman George McCaskey to provide his blessing for the Bears to bundle three first-round draft picks and more for a proven commodity in Russell Wilson. It would be something entirely different for him to green-light that kind of trade compensation for GM Ryan Pace to take another shot at a quarterback after the 2018 swing and miss with Mitch Trubisky. The Trubisky pick already set the Bears back in a huge way, and missing again after trading up would be crippling when considering the compensation required. That’s a big part of what makes this offseason so frustrating for Bears fans. The Bears are in quarterback purgatory, and there is no clear path out while sitting at No. 20. Considering the 49ers paid three-first round picks and more to go from No. 12 to No. 3, the cost for the Bears to get to No. 4 would be even higher. I suggest striking that idea off your list of QB solutions.

Is there any shot anyone other than Andy Dalton is the QB for the Bears in Game 1? — @polskiguy81

Never say never, but I’d put the likelihood of Dalton being the Week 1 starter at 90% or higher. It’s hard to envision a scenario, short of an injury or illness, that would knock him out of that spot. The Bears have been pretty clear they don’t plan to put Nick Foles in a competition for the starting job, although players are competing for spots every time they’re on the practice field. I’m not sure what dream scenario for an upgrade could come to fruition for the Bears between now and then either.

Why not waive Jimmy Graham and keep Kyle Fuller? Kyle was a much more productive player last season. — @bigtroublejack

That’s a question a few readers have asked, and I believe the simple explanation is the Bears are prioritizing the offense in an effort to make a significant step forward this season, particularly when it comes to third-down and red-zone production. They need to be better at situational football, and while Graham’s production wasn’t overwhelming last season, he did lead the team with eight touchdown receptions and the team feels that with improved quarterback play, it will get more out of the skill-position players. You can debate whether the Bears have made real gains at quarterback, but the point is they believe they have. Swapping out Graham for Fuller wouldn’t have been an even wash in terms of cap space, but it would have made it much easier for the Bears to retain Fuller and his $20 million cap hit. That large hit was created at the end of the 2019 season when the Bears restructured his contract to create cap space in 2020. That strategy came back to sting them with the unpredictable cap rollback created by COVID-19, and here we are.

I’m a little surprised the Bears couldn’t go to Fuller and get a contract extension done, which would have lowered his cap hit for this season, but as I’ve reported, he held significant leverage because of the cap number and the team’s cap crunch. There’s a definite gamble here that the Bears can fill the void in the secondary created by releasing Fuller, and it’s fair to wonder how much more they can get from Graham. I don’t believe the Bears are retaining the veteran tight end simply for the idea that he could help recruit Russell Wilson in a trade because the chances of that happening are nearly extinguished. Graham has been a terrific influence on Cole Kmet, but he needs to be a big-time player for the Bears this season to make up for the challenges defensive coordinator Sean Desai faces in making up for the loss of Fuller. Some folks I spoke to from other teams thought the Bears would have been better off shedding defensive lineman Akiem Hicks and keeping Fuller. But the Bears have struggled the last couple of seasons when Hicks was not available and they likely wanted to maintain their strength on the line, which isn’t a bad strategy.

How will the Bears create enough cap space to sign their draft class and other UDFA’s? — @uswarr26

There are a number of avenues the Bears could go here. One I’ve been thinking about is taking a portion of Robert Quinn’s $11.5 million base salary and converting it to a bonus. That would lower his cap hit of $14.7 million and open some room. Of course, that would jack up Quinn’s cap hits in future years and leave the franchise with more dead money on the books when he’s eventually released. For what it’s worth, they won’t need space to add undrafted free agents.

Who will be first QB off the board between these three: Kellen Mond, Davis Mills or Kyle Trask? — @kashbunker

Good question and one the Bears are probably trying to figure out. Taking a stab at it, I think Mills from Stanford could be tops out of those three. Some evaluators I have spoken to compare him to Alabama’s Mac Jones. Mills started only 11 games in college but he has a bigger arm than Jones and was a five-star recruit coming out of high school, so he has everything you look for. After Mills, I’d say Mond and then Trask, but that’s just a guess. Mills is an intriguing guy for the Bears to consider, and they might have to take action on him in Round 2 if they fear he won’t be on the board when their turn comes up in Round 3.

Is Matt Nagy gonna cram his system down Andy Dalton’s throat or call plays with the best chance of success for his offensive unit? I don’t think he’s capable of adapting. He couldn’t do it last year so he turned over the reins. — @ingenuity_usa

I suspect Nagy will try to fashion a scheme with corresponding game plans that highlight the talents of the players he has. I know it’s popular to say he didn’t do that last season or hasn’t done that in the past, but that is simply not true. I wrote at significant length on multiple occasions how the Bears made fundamental shifts in what they did offensively last season in order to fit what Mitch Trubisky did best. Was it a booming success? No. The Bears finished 8-8, backed into the playoffs and were quickly sent packing by the New Orleans Saints. However, along the way they truly changed what they were doing offensively, going from a heavy emphasis on the shotgun to playing much more from under center, which allowed Trubisky to use his athletic ability more and matched pass plays with the running game. So to say Nagy was unwilling to adjust last season wouldn’t be fair. Did the Bears adjust and make major improvements on offense? No. They were better running the ball than they were in 2019, but the gains were not enough. I expect Nagy to assess what Dalton does best and how it matches the strength of the offensive line and skill-position players, and that process has been underway at Halas Hall for some time now with a full review of last season.

What are your thoughts on the NFL eventually going to an 18-game regular season with two preseason games? I’d like to see that happen but with players only allowed to play in 16 games with two games for each player either inactive or DNP. It seems it would check all the boxes: Players can’t be upset they are playing more than 16 games. Stats/records remain at 16 games so all-time records and HOF marks aren’t made obsolete. Would add an interesting strategy to the game where you manage who should sit what games, etc. Second-team players get a chance at starting one or two games a year to showcase themselves, thus making depth (especially at backup QB) a major priority. Lastly player safety. Instead of players pushing through injuries like ankle/shoulder sprains or rushing back from concussions, etc., teams can give them extra time to rest and use their two inactive games as a quasi IR. — Shamrock

It would be a surprise to no one if the league eventually tried to tack on one more regular-season game and get to 18. The idea has already been floated, and the more game inventory the NFL can provide its broadcasting partners, the more money will flow in for the 32 teams. We’re probably a ways off from anything happening on this front, especially when you consider that before last week, the last time the league expanded the regular season was from 14 to 16 games in 1978. Honestly, I think your solution to some of the issues is a little gimmicky. My first reaction is teams would require larger rosters if every player has to sit two games. I do like the idea of creating a situation where younger players get more playing time and opportunities to develop. But let me throw this out there: Let’s say you are a fan of a team with a marquee quarterback and you plunk down good money for tickets to a game. Just envision it. I know it can be challenging for Bears fans. The day comes and instead of the superstar quarterback playing, it’s Johnny Backup. Imagine what Johnny Backup playing in a prime-time game would do for television ratings? There are probably other ways around it, and a lot of negotiating would have to take place. Maybe elements of your plan would work. But do you rest your left and right tackles in the two games your starting quarterback is out? I’m just playing devil’s advocate. Interesting idea.

With so many new developments — the 49ers moving up and the Panthers trading for Sam Darnold — did the Bears jump too soon in signing Andy Dalton? Jimmy Garoppolo and Teddy Bridgewater appear to be available now. Or mythical Russell Wilson trade aside, was Andy Dalton their choice, regardless? — Marc B., Nashville, Tenn.

The 49ers appear pretty set on keeping Garoppolo and waiting to see what their next move is after drafting a quarterback at No. 3. He has a base salary of $24.1 million this season, and that would be a no-go for the Bears when you’re talking about a guy who has missed roughly half of the regular-season games over the previous three years. Bridgewater versus Dalton? I suppose you could make a case for Bridgewater, but I probably could make just as strong a case in the other direction and Bridgewater is under contract for more money than Dalton. The Bears had to make a move once the league year started and they realized a Wilson trade wasn’t happening. They couldn’t stand pat with Nick Foles and wait to see what would shake out. It’s a messy spot they’re in, and as I’ve said all along, there isn’t an easy or perfect solution. Not even a Wilson trade, as it would have seriously damaged their ability to improve the roster around him.