With the Chicago Bears’ season over, George McCaskey has questions to answer. Brad Biggs’ 10 thoughts after the 21-9 playoff loss to the New Orleans Saints.
10 thoughts after the Chicago Bears’ season ended Sunday with a 21-9 loss to the New Orleans Saints at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in the wild-card round of the NFC playoffs.
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1. As George McCaskey surveys the entirety of the season and determines what direction he wants to head, he should not have any questions about how the Bears stack up against their rival and the No. 1 seed in the NFC, the Green Bay Packers.
The Bears have played the Packers twice since Thanksgiving and got their doors blown off each time, although the Week 17 meeting, with a solid game plan, was close until things totally unraveled in the fouth quarter. McCaskey also shouldn’t have any questions about how the Bears looked against the No. 2 seed in the NFC, the Saints. They throttled the Bears on Sunday, holding them to 140 yards and no third-down conversions until a 99-yard drive began with 2 minutes, 19 seconds remaining and the Bears down 18.
Your move, George. What’s it going to be?
The Bears backed into the playoffs as the No. 7 seed in the first year of the expanded postseason format with an 8-8 record, and they closed out the season losing eight of their final 11 games, playoffs included. Their only victory over a team that finished with a winning record came against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers back on Oct. 8.
The Packers and Saints don’t have perfect rosters. It’s damn near impossible to find one of those in the NFL these days with a salary cap, attrition that takes place over the course of the season and the nature of the league that tends to draw teams toward 8-8. The well-built, well-coached teams that have good health can finish 10-6. The very well-built, well-coached teams can get to 12-4 or maybe even a little better. The bad rosters that have bad coaching and a slew of injuries will go 6-10. And the really bad programs can go 4-12 or worse.
What you don’t see in that group of 10-win or better teams very often is subpar quarterback play, and that’s the biggest takeaway when you’re stacking up the Bears against the Packers and Saints. The Packers have Aaron Rodgers, the Saints have Drew Brees and both eventually will have their day in Canton, Ohio, at the Pro Football Hall of Fame. The Bears have Mitch Trubisky, and they’re stuck in that middle ground for a second straight season with no clear path for improvement.
McCaskey must go back to the same question almost everyone out there is wondering: What do you do at quarterback? I’m not going to say Trubisky is the reason the Bears lost this game. The Bears couldn’t run the ball, they were limited on the outside — and then really in a bad spot after Anthony Miller’s feeble effort to one-up teammate Javon Wims’ Clubber Lang impersonation (more on this in a little bit) — and nothing offensively was a real surprise from the Bears.
But it’s a simple question for McCaskey: How do you let general manager Ryan Pace go to the well again after signing Mike Glennon, trading up to draft Trubisky, investing in Chase Daniel as a backup and then trading for Nick Foles? Coach Matt Nagy is surely as much to blame for the Foles experiment that blew up like a high school chemistry project gone bad, but the Bears have an ongoing quarterback dilemma, and even if they choose Trubisky (more on his future in a little bit), can Pace be the one allowed to make the choice?
How many opportunities does one guy get to fix the franchise’s problem, which was a problem when he was hired in 2015? Maybe McCaskey decides Pace and Nagy are a package deal at this point and gives them another season. The Bears have qualified for the playoffs in two of the last three years, and it’s easy to see them as a partnership.
Maybe McCaskey decides Pace and Nagy are a package deal and he’s unhappy with the trajectory of the franchise and fires both of them. That seems unlikely to me because a rough estimate of the cost to completely reboot things would be $20 million; because the Bears, like every other team, are facing revenue losses this year; and because Nagy is eight games over .500 in three seasons and he did help guide the team out of a six-game losing streak.
Or perhaps McCaskey decides to retain Nagy and replace Pace. If so, he likely would move quickly as six other teams are in the hunt for a GM (or similar-level personnel hire) after the Houston Texans hired Nick Caserio last week. The Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Denver Broncos, Detroit Lions, Jacksonville Jaguars and Washington are looking for a top personnel man. The Jaguars seem to be in a holding pattern as they court former college coach Urban Meyer, and Washington is just getting the ball rolling after being eliminated from the playoffs Saturday night. The other four have spent the last week interviewing candidates, and some of these jobs will be filled sooner rather than later, maybe in the next 48 hours.
I had one question for Nagy after Sunday’s game: After losing eight of the last 11 games, how do the Bears feel like the program is moving in a positive direction?
“When you look at it that way and you say you lost this many heading into the end of it, I think what we need to do as a staff is we’ve got to say, ‘Why is that? Where is it? And how do we get better?’ ” Nagy said. “Every year is different, and you look at this right now, and I think identity-wise as an offense, you guys could see we felt like we created an identity. But how do we learn from that? Well, part of it is you see that in games like today, no matter what your identity is, you’ve always got to be able to run the football. You have to be able to do that.
“And when I say that, you might not run for 150 yards in the game, but you’re going to have a lot more second-and-5s and second-and-4s and second-and-3s, which then keeps you out of the third-and-longs. Third-and-longs versus any defense, let alone this defense, is hard. What we need to do in the next couple weeks is really start figuring out, OK, where are we? How do we get better? We know this isn’t good enough. What we need to do is do everything we can to be able to win a Super Bowl. That’s the goal. The goal’s not to make the playoffs. We’ve just got to sit down and evaluate all that stuff, and we obviously know there’s a lot of big decisions.”
I’d like to hear from McCaskey why he believes the Bears are headed in the right direction because being stuck in the middle of the pack in the NFL can be difficult. It’s really hard to pull out of that 8-8 range, and it’s next to impossible if you don’t have a solution at quarterback. Who is going to guide the team in its effort to solve that riddle?
What cannot be overlooked is the way the Bears navigated COVID-19 and avoided some of the detours that created real challenges for other teams. Pace deserves substantial credit for the planning that went into the Bears avoiding major disruptions that turned things upside down for some teams, such as the Cleveland Browns, who played Sunday night without coach Kevin Stefanski at the game.
The Bears had only one starter miss one game because of a stint on the reserve/COVID-19 list: offensive lineman Cody Whitehair for the Week 9 game at Tennessee. While there were a handful of practice squad players who missed time, the only other players on the 53-man roster to be sidelined during the regular season were returner DeAndre Carter (two games), safety Deon Bush (one) and reserve offensive lineman Jason Spriggs (one). In the big picture, the Bears were much more successful than a lot of teams. Sure, there probably was some luck involved, and a ton of credit goes to the players and staff for being personally disciplined when they were away from Halas Hall. But Pace was at the forefront of creating a game plan for navigating the pandemic, and he and Nagy set the tone for that.
When will we hear from the Bears? There’s no schedule for Monday media availability from Halas Hall yet. The team said some players likely will be available mid-morning. If someone is going to be fired, I would expect action sooner rather than later. Last year, Pace and Nagy met with the media two days after the final game. League rules require teams to conduct wrap-up media sessions within a week of the end of the season, a policy the Bears skirted after the 2018 season when they waited eight days until Pace and Nagy spoke.
2. How do you get out of the middle of the pack?
I called two personnel men with other teams, veteran guys who have seen the Bears multiple times this season, and asked them to assess where the Bears are and what needs to be done to keep the team in contention in the NFC? How do they go about getting out of no man’s land, that range from 7-9 to 9-7 they’ve been in? It can be really difficult for teams to get out of the middle ground without backtracking first. Across the board, the Bears said they felt like they were close a year ago when they went 8-8, and I don’t think they can say that with the same optimism this time around.
“Oh, boy,” the first personnel man said. “I don’t know if you do. You’ve got to start at the quarterback, but I don’t know that there is a solution available at quarterback. It’s quarterback and offensive line. The defense, in general, is getting older, so you’ve got that issue. I don’t know if they have the right people.
“It’s either going to take elite coaching or a top-tier quarterback. Let me pull up teams that have kind of made those jumps. You could put Cleveland in that category, but they had so much draft capital for so many years, high-level draft capital, that the Browns were able to get unique players. That didn’t work until they got Kevin Stefanski. It’s a change in coach and it’s many years of high-level draft capital and not just picking early but that previous regime (before John Dorsey) was able to accumulate so many picks.
“Other teams that have, you know, the Rams just plugged in Sean McVay from Jeff Fisher and were able to completely transition, so that was elite head coaching. Arizona has been stuck in that third or fourth spot forever in that division. San Francisco was able to transition with Kyle Shanahan and then Jimmy Garoppolo, who gets way too much criticism. He was bad this year, but he didn’t play much. Last year, he was not bad. And then elite defensive line play. The other teams that have shifted, Tampa Bay with Tom Brady. Carolina is kind of stuck in mediocrity. Atlanta has been stuck for a long time except when it had Kyle for that couple-year span. The NFC East, the Eagles got Carson Wentz and then got good.
“Kansas City got Patrick Mahomes and then got good. Denver got Peyton Manning and then got good and they haven’t been good since. Pittsburgh has always been at the top with Ben Roethelisberger and Mike Tomlin. Baltimore has been stable — one or two — because they’ve been a stable organization with good coaching and good drafting. The Colts shifted with Frank Reich and the combination of him and Chris Ballard and drafting really well. That is maybe an outlier with no quarterback, but obviously elite coaching has been shown in his ability to transition the Colts and also the demise of Philly after Frank left there. Buffalo has Josh Allen and Sean McDermott and then adding an elite piece in Stefon Diggs this year. They’ve got some good assistants there too.”
The second personnel man cited the quarterback and offensive line, which should not come as a surprise.
“To me, they’ve got to get the offensive line fixed,” he said. “It’s hard to argue against that defense. The corners are good, safeties are good, the D-line is good. With (Danny) Trevathan, maybe you need to figure that out. He really struggled from what I saw this season. Offensively, they have to fix the line. They needed to get committed to one thing. Are they going to be a gadget-type offense? Are they going to be a team that pounds the ball like they did in December and then get the keeper game going and the play-action game? Obviously, the quarterback position, they have got to figure that out. They’re like dead men walking into the mine every day until they fix that.
“But Allen Robinson is a good player and what happens with him? He’s a free agent. I like the (Darnell) Mooney kid. He’s a good player. David Montgomery is functional. To me, the O-line and the quarterback are the huge issues there. When you look at the line, Charles Leno is functional at left tackle, and keep in mind it would be hard to make a bunch of changes in one offseason. The interior? Is Sam Mustipher their guy at center? Is Alex Bars a guy you want to go into the start of next season with as a starter? Those are questions you have to answer.
“Cody Whitehair is a good player and James Daniels will be back. There are some parts there, but they have to get better on the line and they didn’t do that after last season for whatever reason. Those are just a couple places where you have to start thinking, and, man, I just don’t know what direction they take at quarterback. There are going to be a lot of teams asking themselves the same question and, trust me, there just aren’t enough of them to go around.”
3. What’s more disturbing for the Bears? That Javon Wims and Anthony Miller were ejected from games against the Saints this season for getting into ridiculous spats with nickel cornerback C.J. Gardner-Johnson or the inability of the team to develop a wide receiver other than Darnell Mooney the last couple of seasons?
Seriously. Which reflects more poorly on the Bears and wide receivers coach Mike Furrey?
Wims was ejected from the Week 8 game at Soldier Field and subsequently suspended for two games. He appealed the suspension in hopes of having it cut in half and lost. Miller got caught up in his own emotion-fueled run-in with Gardner-Johnson, and the Bears were big losers once again. It led me to wonder aloud on Twitter: “You would think #Bears WR coach Mike Furrey would have had his players composed and ready to handle what they knew they would be going against in this game, right?”
“We spent some time now on Wednesday morning as a team,” coach Matt Nagy said. “We spent time literally showing and explaining a particular player’s actions in games and teaching it. That’s taking 10 or 15 minutes out of your day, which is precious. And so when you do that, I think it’s a valuable lesson for our guys. We already knew going into this thing about some of that, right?
“What do we talk about? Every action has a reaction, and so I think it’s a valuable one, especially when we’re low with numbers at the wide receiver position and the value of that Zebra position for us. And so again it’s something where our guys, we’ve all got to understand we’ve got to be stronger and we can’t have that happen, and we’ve got to understand that. You’re right: That’s two times that that happened, and we just can’t have it.”
In the big picture, more disappointing is the reality that the Bears have a wide receiver in Miller whom they traded up to get in Round 2 in 2018 and he simply hasn’t blossomed. He had 49 receptions for 485 yards and two touchdowns and was mostly a nonfactor in the second half of the season as Mooney, a fifth-round pick this year who came on fast and set a franchise record for receptions by a rookie wide receiver, dominated the playing time. The Bears also shifted to more 12 personnel (one running back, two wide receivers, two tight ends).
Add in the fact that 2019 fourth-round pick Riley Ridley has barely seen the field in two seasons, and you have another draft pick who hasn’t produced. The Bears have to take a look at this position because Allen Robinson is slated to be an unrestricted free agent and they have a critically low number of reliable playmakers on offense. That’s a problem that has nothing whatsoever to do with Gardner-Johnson, and it’s an issue the Bears must tackle this offseason.
4. There are some positive takeaways from the final 11 games, and you can’t review the season without acknowledging the offensive line made improvements.
Don’t jump to conclusions and think the Bears have solved what was a major problem when the season began. To believe that would be to fall into the same trap that doomed the team last offseason. But eventually getting to Sam Mustipher at center was a development that potentially unearthed a starter for the future and a guy who can grow and develop, allowing Cody Whitehair to remain at guard, where he’s more effective.
Ryan Pace has a brief Q&A on the WBBM-AM 780 pregame show every week — it’s the only time the Bears general manager speaks during the season — and he had an interesting reply to a question from play-by-play man Jeff Joniak about the development of young players over the course of the season such as running back David Montgomery, wide receiver Darnell Mooney and tight end Cole Kmet.
“Those players you mentioned, I (also) think of Roquan (Smith), Bilal (Nichols), Jaylon Johnson, Sam Mustipher, all those guys are 24 years of age and younger,” Pace said. “And they’ve all had a significant impact on us getting to the playoffs. I think this experience for their careers, for our team, it’s extremely valuable.”
It’s interesting that Pace lumped Mustipher in with that group, and I think it’s telling in regard to how the front office and coaching staff feel about the former undrafted free agent from Notre Dame. The Bears have more work to do on the line and Mustipher will need to improve. But if he can fill one hole, and do so playing on a minimum contract, that would alleviate some issues and allow the team to commit resources elsewhere. Mustipher deserves credit, and offensive line coach Juan Castillo should be lauded for getting him up and running quickly.
“Your job as a center is to make everybody around you better,” Mustipher said. “I knew when I got my opportunity to play, I had to make the guys around me better no matter who lined up next to me. Fortunately, I’ve been blessed with a great group of guys to be around, to learn from, so that’s been nice. Making those guys better, getting guys on the right page, seeing things through one set of eyes, that was all critical stuff for me.”
The best thing is Mustipher has a lot of tape to look back on in the offseason, a lot of experiences that can be learning moments. His emergence has been a stroke of good fortune for the Bears and likely gives them one piece to the puzzle as they start considering what moves to make.
5. In the final two minutes of the first half, both coaches told us what they thought about Mitch Trubisky and the Bears offense.
Trailing 7-3, the Bears took over on their 18-yard line with 1:49 to go until halftime. David Montgomery took a handoff and went to the left side for 5 yards on first down, and immediately Saints coach Sean Payton used his final timeout at 1:42. He wanted to get the ball back. The Bears, who had two timeouts remaining, gave the ball to Montgomery again on second down and then handed off to Ryan Nall on third-and-2. He was stuffed for no gain, the Bears punted and the half ended.
The usually aggressive Matt Nagy had played it super conservative in a playoff game.
“It was the field position,” he said. “I didn’t like the field position. I was telling the coaches, ‘Hey, let’s see where we can go here big picture. Let’s get a first down or two.’ The field position was so bad that, as you could see, they called a timeout after first down and then they were out of timeouts. Being 7-3, knowing that we’re getting the ball to start the third quarter, at that point in time that was really the mindset just because of the field position. Now you end up getting a first down or two, and now it flips. Now you go from that four-minute mode to that two-minute mode.”
With another quarterback, does Nagy choose a different approach? With another quarterback, is Payton less likely to burn his final timeout after first down? I’m confident Nagy would have been more aggressive if the Bears were starting on their 35-yard line, but it’s the playoffs and you only get so many chances. What about a schemed-up deep shot against a secondary that led the NFL in pass interference penalties?
It’s worth keeping in mind as we move forward.
Once the Bears figure out what direction they’re headed organizationally — and that should come together quickly — the quarterback position will be the No. 1 storyline as we launch into the offseason. That’s nothing new for the Bears, and it’s precisely where they were a year ago at this time. It has been the storyline that has shaped the discussion of so many offseasons for the Bears. Plenty of other significant decisions need to be made, and will in time, but none of them can set the course for the future like the decision at quarterback.
Mitch Trubisky has been improved since returning to the starting lineup in Week 12 in Green Bay, and he set a team record by completing 67% of his passes for the season. It’s unlikely the Bears would have reached the playoffs had they gone back to Nick Foles as the starter after his hip injury healed. Trubisky deserves credit for handling the situation well, and he has been a pro throughout a challenging year as the team traded for Foles, declined the fifth-year option in Trubisky’s contract and benched him during the third quarter of the Week 3 game in Atlanta.
The Bears will have to consider all options when it comes to the position, including Trubisky, who is scheduled to be an unrestricted free agent. Here are six opinions I have regarding this situation:
A. The Bears present the best opportunity for Trubisky to be a starting quarterback in 2021, and the team could decide the commitment to running the ball and working to enhance Trubisky’s strengths while continuing to play sound defense is its best chance to have success next season. The Bears would have to do some work on the offensive line, and if they bring Trubisky back, they almost certainly have to continue to pair him with wide receiver Allen Robinson. There are other factors to consider too. On the outside, I don’t think Trubisky has done enough since the end of November to change the opinion others around the league have regarding his ability, and despite a 29-21 career record as a starter in the regular season (25-13 since 2018), I don’t believe other teams view him as starting material. I could be wrong about that — and he could wind up finding a team that views him as a prospect with at least the ability to be a bridge quarterback — but that’s the vibe I’ve gotten from folks I have spoken to over the last two-plus years.
“I can definitely see myself back here next year,” Trubisky said. “Obviously a lot of that is out of my control, but it feels like home and it feels like we have unfinished business. Right now, I’m just bummed about this season being over and how the game went, so a lot of emotions going on right now, but I can see that. We’ll see. There are a lot of things that have to happen and a lot of decisions that have to be made and that’s out of my control, but I can see that.
“I feel like I got better this year. I feel like when I was put back in the starting lineup that the offense was better and I gave my team a chance to win and we did win games, and that is why we were able to get back into the playoffs. It wasn’t just me but it was the whole unit coming together and the whole team making plays and really getting through that adversity together, but I feel like I was a big part of that. So there are some good things that we did toward the end of the season that helped put us in position to be able to play here tonight, but that’s not how we want to finish.
“We finished the season 8-8 and slid into the playoffs. We did that last year, so there are still things that need to be changed. There are still a lot of areas we need to grow in to build that championship culture that we want to get to. We have some pieces, but there is a lot more that we need to do better and we need to figure that out.”
B. If the Bears opt to pursue Trubisky — and, again, I would not rule this out — I do not believe they would use the franchise tag to bring him back. They wouldn’t need to sink that much money into him and could re-sign him on a more modest short-term deal that includes incentives based on team and individual performance.
C. Trubisky would be best served with a fresh start elsewhere. When folks make comparisons to Alex Smith and Ryan Tannehill, players who took off later in their careers after being first-round draft picks, they often omit the fact both didn’t take off until they changed teams. Trubisky would have to find the right spot — the right coaching staff and a depth chart that provides optimism for advancement — but a new environment could be best for the 26-year-old.
D. If the Bears change general managers, the chance of their re-signing Trubisky is reduced. It’s hard to believe someone would replace Ryan Pace, complete a thorough offensive review of the past couple of seasons and reach the conclusion the Bears should chart a course with Trubisky at quarterback.
E. Matt Nagy has been effusive in his praise of how Trubisky has dealt with the roller coaster of a season, and he has noted improvements Trubisky has made since taking back over for Foles. That being said, I believe Nagy will be motivated to find a new quarterback. I don’t think Trubisky has done enough since the team evaluated last season, decided to acquire Foles, declined the fifth-year option in Trubisky’s contract and then benched Trubisky in Week 3 to shift the narrative. Remember, the bar was set at ground level for the offense in the seven starts Foles made, so the improvements we’ve seen against some bad teams are modest in the big picture. A lot has gone wrong with the offense, plenty that extends well beyond the control of Trubisky or Foles, and some of the blame no doubt rests with coaching. The offensive line was an issue in 2019 and when this season began, and by stroke of luck almost, it has gotten incrementally better since some lineup changes in November. But add it all up, focus in on the quarterback position and I don’t see Nagy looking at three years of work with Trubisky and deciding he will be significantly better in 2021.
F. The Bears are in a real jam at quarterback when you project ahead, and there isn’t a clear path to finding a replacement. All options have to be on the table — trade, draft and free agency — and Trubisky has to be a possibility as well. When you take a step back and survey everything that has transpired, my opinion is the Bears will stack multiple options ahead of Trubisky when constructing the roster for 2021.
6. Keep in mind the Bears have moved quickly to hammer out a contract extension after the season the last two years.
They signed free safety Eddie Jackson to a new contract shortly after the 2019 season, and the year before they re-signed right tackle Bobby Massie in January. This is worth noting if general manager Ryan Pace remains at the top of the organization. Jackson was entering the final year of his rookie contract when the Bears extended him. Massie was scheduled to be an unrestricted free agent. If the Bears make a change at GM, common sense tells you they would be less likely to get down to business right away with any of their 22 players who are slated to be unrestricted free agents.
The pending UFAs:
Wide receiver Allen Robinson
Quarterback Mitch Trubisky
Returners Cordarrelle Patterson, Dwayne Harris and DeAndre Carter
Defensive linemen Roy Robertson-Harris, John Jenkins, Daniel McCullers, Brent Urban and Mario Edwards Jr.
Defensive backs DeAndre Houston-Carson, Tashaun Gipson, Sherrick McManis, Deon Bush and Artie Burns
Offensive linemen Germain Ifedi and Jason Spriggs
Outside linebacker Barkevious Mingo
Tight end Demetrius Harris
Kicker Cairo Santos
Punter Pat O’Donnell
Long snapper Patrick Scales
The Bears have two restricted free agents — offensive lineman Rashaad Coward and kicker Eddy Pineiro — and six exclusive-rights free agents: tight end J.P. Holtz, outside linebacker James Vaughters, inside linebacker Josh Woods, offensive lineman Alex Bars, running back Ryan Nall and cornerback Michael Joseph.
It’s difficult to envision a scenario in which a deal materializes quickly for Robinson. When the sides could not reach an agreement before the season, all signs pointed to the Bears having to make a decision by March on using the franchise tag with Robinson. The Bears will need considerable time to contemplate what to do at quarterback.
Robertson-Harris seems destined to exit in free agency and likely will get a strong deal elsewhere, which could help the Bears in 2022 in terms of a compensatory draft pick. Patterson has stated a desire to remain with the Bears, but with the salary cap tightening and the Bears snug against it, he might need to play for less than $5 million per season, and that situation could require some time to play out.
If I had to pick one that makes sense for the Bears to try to get something done in the days or weeks ahead, it would be Santos. He has performed well enough to be marketable in free agency, though, and he might want to see where the bidding heads if he’s a free agent.
The Bears have a few players entering the final year of their rookie contracts who could be up for an extension at some point. That list, of course, is headed by inside linebacker Roquan Smith. He does not have an agent, according to NFLPA records, and he’ll likely want representation before considering a blockbuster second contract. Defensive lineman Bilal Nichols and guard James Daniels also are entering the final year of their rookie deals and could be priorities at some point. Daniels’ injury no doubt clouds that.
7. The biggest non-playoff buzz of the week was word out of Houston that Deshaun Watson is upset.
Watson, who had a spectacular season despite the Texans trading away wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins, was reportedly told by owner Cal McNair that he would have some level of involvement in the hiring of the general manager. On the surface, it makes no sense that the Texans would consult with a player, even one of Watson’s stature, in the decision to hire a GM. Now, with longtime New England Patriots executive Nick Caserio in that role, the Texans have a hacked-off franchise quarterback as they seek a new coach. This is a hazmat-level mess with multiple layers as other reports indicated the Texans were close to hiring Omar Khan as GM before pivoting to Caserio.
“I say from afar the respect and admiration that I have for him as a player and what he’s done for this organization is significant,” Caserio said of Watson at his introductory news conference Friday. “He’s our quarterback. … When the appropriate time comes, we’ll sit and spend some time with Deshaun. We’re certainly looking forward to the opportunity to work with him.”
Caserio didn’t enjoy an incredible run with Bill Belichick and Tom Brady in New England by making dumb decisions, and it seems unlikely the Texans would consider the possibility of trading Watson. But that has not stopped an avalanche of speculation regarding where Watson could land, and this will be a story — a potentially huge one — for the time being.
Every team that doesn’t have a franchise quarterback — and there are more have-nots than haves — with the exception of the Jacksonville Jaguars would be in on Watson if he’s made available. The Jaguars don’t need to make a play for Watson because they have the No. 1 pick and can draft Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence and have him on a rookie contract for five years. The list of teams that would not have interest in Watson is small, and the price — again, I don’t believe the Texans would entertain this option — would be immense.
There isn’t a comparable deal in the modern NFL for a top-five quarterback in his prime who has been traded. The Bears traded two first-round draft picks, a third-round pick and Kyle Orton for Jay Cutler and a fifth-round pick in April 2009. Cutler wasn’t a top-five quarterback at the time and never reached that level. Watson is very much in that class, arguably in the top three. The Bears traded two first-round picks for Khalil Mack, and a marquee quarterback is considerably more valuable than an elite edge rusher.
The price tag for Watson would have to start with three first-round picks, in my estimation, and the Texans would surely prefer to get a bridge quarterback in return. The situation — if it ever reached this point — would be complicated, however, and Watson would have a ton of leverage. He has a no-trade clause in his contract, so the Texans cannot trade him without his written consent. That gives him considerable control when pondering where the team could trade him and what the Texans could get in return. It’s possible that would reduce what a team might have to fork over to acquire him because Watson would have so much say in the process.
The Texans lack draft capital after trading for left tackle Laremy Tunsil from the Miami Dolphins, but you don’t trade away Watson and create a massive hole at the most important position unless you literally have no other choice. Watson is the building block in Houston for Caserio and whoever the Texans wind up hiring as coach, and you would expect them to take considerable steps to bring Watson back into the fold and appease him. What we don’t know, at this point, if the situation is beyond repair.
I don’t know how the Bears could put together a highly appealing offer for Watson. They will be picking 20th in the first round, and it’s hard to find a quarterback in that range. And it’s not like the Bears could give the Texans a quarterback they would like in return. Nick Foles doesn’t fit that profile the way he played this season.
You never say never in the NFL, and the Texans and McNair bungled this situation beyond belief when they led Watson to believe he would be a partner in the process of hiring a GM, but the idea the Bears could get Watson and right a wrong made in the 2017 draft at an exorbitant price is remote. On Sunday morning, it was reported the Miami Dolphins could be a suitor for Watson and trade Tua Tagovailoa to Houston. Based on what Tagovailoa did in nine starts for the Dolphins, my question is what would motivate the Texans to believe he can be their future at quarterback? The Dolphins, by the way, are in position to draft a quarterback such as Ohio State’s Justin Fields or BYU’s Zach Wilson with the No. 3 pick, which they acquired from the Texans in the Tunsil deal.
If Watson is made available, and that would be crazy by the standard of crazy NFL stories, the Bears need to have Caserio on speed dial and call him until he tells them no.
8. Sean Payton and Drew Brees have been fixtures in New Orleans for the longest time, and this might have been one of Brees’ final games.
The 40-year-old future Hall of Famer’s future is very much uncertain. If Brees departs, he would exit as one of the most successful and classiest guys to play the position. There was a time not long ago that things weren’t so rosy in New Orleans. Go back to 2016, when the Saints finished 7-9, and folks were wondering if time was running out for both Brees and Payton. It was the third straight 7-9 season and fourth in a five-year stretch beginning in 2012. The Saints had a top-notch passing game but were not balanced on offense and had a bad defense. It showed in the results year after year.
I bring this up because the Saints were a team that had become consistently average or mediocre, however you want to frame it, and accomplished what is really difficult. They returned to excellence without bottoming out. The Bears have been average or mediocre, again, however you want to classify them, after consecutive 8-8 seasons, and it’s worth wondering if they can improve from here or will need to take a few steps back before moving forward.
The key to the Saints’ revival is easy to trace. They dominated the 2017 draft, absolutely nailed it. Their draft class that year is one of the best any team has had this century — maybe the best. They added cornerback Marshon Lattimore and right tackle Ryan Ramczyk in the first round, free safety Marcus Williams in the second round and running back Alvin Kamara, linebacker Alex Anzalone and defensive end Trey Hendrickson in the third round. It was an amazing haul. Suddenly, the Saints had one of the best rushing attacks in the league to go with Brees, and the defense returned to prominence as Lattimore gave them a lockdown cornerback to go with some talented players already in place up front.
Everyone aims to have an impactful draft class like the Saints put together in 2017, but wishing for that and seeing it happen are two entirely different things. Usually, the road back to prominence has more bumps, and in this case, the Saints still had an elite quarterback in place, something the Bears do not have to build around.
9. The Bears will have the 20th pick in the first round for only the third time in club history.
Former Pro Bowl guard Kyle Long was drafted 20th in 2013. The only other time the Bears used the 20th pick was in 1974 to draft Michigan defensive end Dave Gallagher. That was the year before they landed Walter Payton in the draft. Gallagher spent only one season with the Bears before they traded him to the New York Giants for wide receiver Bob Grim and a draft pick. Here are the No. 20 picks since 2010:
2020, Jaguars: K’Lavon Chaisson, LB, LSU
2019, Broncos: Noah Fant, TE, Iowa
2018, Lions: Frank Ragnow, C, Arkansas
2017, Broncos: Garett Bolles, LT, Utah
2016, Jets: Darron Lee, LB, Ohio State
2015, Eagles: Nelson Agholor, WR, USC
2014, Saints: Brandin Cooks, WR, Oregon State
2013, Bears: Kyle Long, OL, Oregon
2012, Titans: Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor
2011, Buccaneers: Adrian Clayborn, DL, Iowa
2010, Texans: Kareem Jackson, CB, Alabama
Only three players on this list signed a second contract with the team that drafted them — Jackson, Long and Bolles. Ragnow is a young building block in Detroit and certainly could be extended by the Lions. Long is the only one of the 11 to be selected to the Pro Bowl.
10. Five of the 16 players who began the season on the expanded practice squad appeared on the 53-man roster.
By my count, the Bears had 33 players spend at least one week on the practice squad. The league voted to expand the developmental squad to 12 players in 2020 and 2021 before jumping to 14 in 2022. But to give teams added flexibility during the COVID-19 pandemic, they were given 16 practice squad slots this season.
Of the 33 players who spent at least one week on the practice squad, 10 appeared in a game: linebacker Devante Bond, quarterback Tyler Bray, safety Xavier Crawford, offensive lineman Dieter Eiselen, punt returner Dwayne Harris, nose tackle Daniel McCullers, running back Lamar Miller, center Sam Mustipher, running back Artavis Pierce and kicker Cairo Santos. Linebacker Manti Te’o and defensive back Marqui Christian were moved up to the active game-day roster for the playoffs, and both played in Sunday’s game.
The Bears had 20 players appear on the practice squad during the 2019 season, 13 in 2018, 27 in 2017, 30 in 2016 and 30 in 2015.
Look for a good handful of the players finishing the season on the practice squad to sign reserve/future contracts in the coming days.
10a. Congratulations to Alabama’s Thomas Fletcher, who won the Patrick Mannelly Award as the nation’s top long snapper. Fletcher was honored in a virtual presentation Saturday night, edging out finalists Damon Johnson of USC and Ryan Langan of Georgia Southern. It is the second year the award has been given out.
“It was a little more challenging this year because you didn’t have as much tape,” said Mannelly, one of 16 members of the selection committee that includes former Bears kicker Robbie Gould, former Bears punter Brad Maynard, former Bears coach Dave Wannstedt and a host of other special teams experts.
“I guess it’s been easier because there’s been less tape, but you always want more to evaluate. It’s fun to watch the kids. These guys are getting so darned good. They’re getting so much better even going back to when I retired (after the 2013 season), it’s really amazing. They are so much more accurate. They don’t mess up. Chris Rubio (a co-founder of the award who runs long snapping camps around the country) said he was down in Georgia and he had his first 9-year-old enroll in a camp. They’re starting at 9 now. They’re getting really good.”
The award is presented by William Blair, and it should be noted money is raised to support Bernie’s Book Bank, a nonprofit organization dedicated to increasing book ownership among at-risk children. That’s a cause that should be important to everyone.
10b. The defense struggled to get off the field on third down, but until Alvin Kamara broke off a 25-yard run late in the fourth quarter, the Bears did a nice job handling the league’s best multi-threat running back without inside linebacker Roquan Smith, who was sidelined with a left elbow injury. Kamara caught only two passes for 17 yards. The Bears also did OK against wide receiver Michael Thomas, who caught five passes for 73 yards. What you saw, though, is Drew Brees has an absolute wealth of playmakers, and that is a huge difference when stacking up the rosters against each other.
10c. I am particularly interested to hear what the team has to say about rookie cornerback Jaylon Johnson, who missed the final four games with a shoulder injury suffered in a sideline collision with Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson. Matt Nagy called him day-to-day throughout, and Johnson first returned to practice last week. He was limited and the Bears listed him as questionable for the game, but he was inactive. Is offseason surgery ahead for a guy who had shoulder surgeries at Utah? Certainly the hope is it won’t be necessary. Johnson had a fine season and is a big part of the future for the defense.
10d. Thanks for reading this season and thank you for all of the interaction on social media. Stay safe.
