Chicago Bears vs. Tampa Bay Bucs preview: Who has the advantage in Week 7
The Chicago Bears (3-3) will face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-1) on Sunday, where Chicago will be looking to avoid losing their second straight game. But against this Bucs team, it’s not going to be easy to pull an upset.
When it comes to determining who wins football games, there are a number of factors that contribute to a victory. Solid quarterback play, winning the line of scrimmage, protecting the football and taking it away, controlling important situations and overcoming or taking advantage of an injury situation.
In our weekly preview series, Alyssa Barbieri from Bears Wire and Luke Easterling from Bucs Wire went deep into the matchup to determine who has the advantage at the five key factors for winning football games in the NFL.
Quarterback play
AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh
Bears Wire: While rookie quarterback Justin Fields hasn’t been exploding off the stat sheet, he’s been quietly developing at a rate the Bears are comfortable with. They haven’t asked him to do too much, leaning on what’s been a solid run game and asking Fields to make plays when needed, which he’s done. That’ll likely change this week as Tampa Bay boasts the best run defense in the NFL, and they’re going to have to open things up in the passing game to move the ball. The good news is the Bucs have a battered secondary that Fields can target.
Bucs Wire: In his 22nd NFL season, at 44 years old, Tom Brady is somehow still playing some of the best football of his legendary career so far this season. He leads the league in passing yards through six games, and ranks second in touchdown passes, completing 68.5 percent of his attempts with just three interceptions. Brady’s ability to adapt to anything a defense can throw at him continues to be one of his strongest traits, and offseason knee surgery to repair a torn MCL (which he played with for the entire 2020 season) has allowed him to be even more mobile than usual.
Advantage: Bucs
Line of scrimmage
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Bears Wire: The Bears’ defensive front remains an impressive unit through the first six weeks led by Akiem Hicks, Eddie Goldman, Bilal Nichols, along with edge rushers Khalil Mack and Robert Quinn. Chicago has done a great job getting after the quarterback notching 20 sacks on the season, where Mack and Quinn have combined for 11.5 sacks through six weeks. But Quinn’s status for Sunday’s game is in jeopardy as he’s on the reserve/COVID-19 list, where it would be second-year pro Trevis Gipson starting opposite Mack. If the Bears stand any chance of an upset against the Bucs, they’re going to need to replicate their gameplan from last year’s upset, where they turned the pressure up on Tom Brady. While Chicago’s offensive line has been much better following a brutal outing against the Browns, they’re going to face their biggest challenge against one of the best defensive fronts in the NFL. The O-line needs to do a good job protecting Fields in a game where they’re going to need to open things up downfield as it’ll be difficult to get the run game going.
Bucs Wire: The Bucs one of the NFL’s most formidable defensive fronts, anchored by arguably the league’s best nose tackle in Vita Vea. Opposing teams are better off just throwing the ball every down instead of testing Tampa Bay’s top-ranked rush defense, but even that is a dangerous game
with the likes of Shaq Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul rushing off the edge. Ndamukong Suh is still playing at a high level late in his career, and Will Gholston might just be the most underrated player on the team. The offensive line has been equally impressive this season, allowing just nine sacks through six weeks, and paving the way for an improved ground attack that has helped Leonard Fournette top 100 total yards in three straight games. Winning begins and ends in the trenches, and the Bucs are excelling in that department on both sides of the ball.
Advantage: Bucs
Turnovers
AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh
Bears Wire: Protecting the football on offense and taking the football away on defense have been points of emphasis for the Bears this season, and they’ve done a good job of that through the first six weeks. The Bears have a +2 turnover differential through six weeks, where they have 7 takeaways and have turned the ball over 5 times. Last week against the Packers, Justin Fields tossed an interception that should have been negated by what was a no-call offsides penalty. Aside from that, Chicago did a good job protecting the football, but the defense wasn’t able to muster a takeaway. The Bears are going to need another mistake-free game by the offense and find a way to get a rare turnover against the Packers to help their chances in this matchup.
Bucs Wire: Tampa Bay has a plus-3 turnover ratio through six games, thanks in large part to having Brady running the show on offense. He’s thrown just three interceptions so far this season, to go along with the three fumbles
the Bucs have lost. On defense, there are still some big plays being left on
the field, which can be partly blamed on the long list of injuries the Bucs
have suffered on that side of the ball. Facing a rookie quarterback in Justin
Fields could give Tampa Bay’s defenders a prime opportunity to get their hands on the ball more often than they have to this point.
Advantage: Bucs
Situational
USA Today Sports
Bears Wire: The Bears defense has been spectacular in the red zone, whether it’s holding teams to a field goal or forcing a turnover on downs. They’re allowing teams to score a touchdown on just 45% of trips inside the red zone, which ranks third in the NFL. For how uninspired the Bears offense has been this season, they’ve been decent in the red zone this season, scoring a touchdown on 66.67% of their trips inside the 20 (10th in NFL). Third down conversions remain a struggle for Chicago, where the offense has converted on just 33.33% of third downs (28th) and the defense has struggled to get off the field allowing teams to convert on third down 41.89% of the time (18th). While the Bears offense also struggles on fourth down, converting 22.22% of the time (29th), the defense has the 10th-best fourth-down defense allowing 41.67% of conversions.
Bucs Wire: Tampa Bay ranks third in the NFL when it comes to converting third downs, moving the chains nearly 50 percent of the time. They’re tied for second in the league in red-zone trips, and are second all by themselves with 18 red-zone touchdowns, but the Bucs are just 12th when it comes to turning those frequent trips inside the 20-yard line into six points instead of three. Finishing more drives in the end zone will be a huge point of focus for the defending Super Bowl champs moving forward. On defense, the Bucs have struggled to get third-down stops, ranking 22nd in the NFL in allowing third-down conversions. They’re slightly better when it comes to keeping opposing teams out of the end zone on red-zone trips, but still firmly planted in the middle of the pack.
Advantage: Bucs
Injuries
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Bears Wire: For the second straight week, there are a handful of Bears banged up heading into game day. Defensive tackle Akiem Hicks appeared to reaggravate a groin injury last week against the Packers, and while he returned to practice Friday, he’s been downgraded to out against Tampa Bay. Outside linebacker Khalil Mack has been a regular on the injury report all year with a foot injury, where he’s officially questionable. Still, expect him to play. Receiver Allen Robinson has been battling an ankle injury dating back to last week, but he was limited on Thursday and Friday and should be good to go. The only player who’s been ruled out against the Bucs is safety Tashaun Gipson. But there’s concern about the status of outside linebacker Robert Quinn, who was placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list earlier this week and could miss the game.
Bucs Wire: The Bucs are as banged up as any team in the league, and some of their biggest names have been routine members of the injury report. The team’s top two corners (Carlton Davis III, Sean Murphy-Bunting) are still on injured reserve, and Richard Sherman has been ruled out for Sunday’s game with a hamstring injury. Tampa Bay will also be without Lavonte David, Rob Gronkowski and Antonio Brown against the Bears, while Pierre-Paul and O.J. Howard are listed as questionable. The good news? Antoine Winfield Jr. has cleared concussion protocol, and will return to the starting lineup after missing the last two games.
Advantage: Bears
Verdict: Advantage Bucs
AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast
No matter how you look at it, the Bucs have the advantage in most categories. The only advantage Chicago has is that they have less injuries. If the Bears couldn’t beat an injury-depleted Packers team that was ripe for the taking, it’s hard to believe they can take down one of the NFL’s best teams in the Bucs. It’s certainly not impossible, as evidenced by last year’s surprising upset, but Chicago is going to need to be near perfect in all phases to come close to containing the Bucs offense and scoring points against one of the best defenses in the NFL.
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