Chicago Blackhawks Q&A: What would’ve happened if Corey Crawford stayed? Why are they so set on their defensive scheme? And is there any hope in next season’s Central Division?

Phil Thompson, Chicago Tribune
·12 min read

The Chicago Blackhawks will have tough evaluations to make for the next phase of the rebuild.

They have only a 2.7% chance of winning the draft lottery June 2, so they might have to dig deep to find immediate help from the amateur ranks.

They have to decide whom to protect and expose when lists for the expansion draft are due July 17.

There are young players to re-sign and free agents to pursue when the signing period opens July 28.

The Hawks’ decisions on those fronts will illustrate the road map they believe will return them to Stanley Cup contention.

Phil Thompson answers readers’ questions that cover free-agent targets, the defensive scheme and the outlook for next season’s realigned Central Division.

What will be the major free-agent priorities? Hopefully getting Jonathan Toews back would be like getting a top-line center in FA, but what other priorities are there? (Or will there be FA targets at all?) — Jabari J.

I covered this a bit in “5 offseason questions for the Hawks,” but Stan Bowman made comments during exit interviews that relate to some of your questions.

“(The salary cap) is a bit of a challenge, no question about that,” Bowman said. “But we’re going to have to deal with it. LTI (long-term injured reserve) is an option for us; we’ll look into that. It may be something we use. We’re hoping to work it a different way.”

Explanation: The Hawks were flush with cap space this season with five players on long-term injured reserve, but Toews ($10.5 million) might return, Alex Nylander ($863,333) is expected back, Brent Seabrook’s contract ($6.875 million) might be offloaded in a trade and Zack Smith ($3.25 million) is an unrestricted free agent who won’t be re-signed. It’s not clear yet how the Hawks will handle Andrew Shaw’s contract ($3.9 million), but most likely he’ll remain on LTIR.

Then Bowman said: “The biggest thing is we don’t have a lot of new contracts to sign. So that should help us from the perspective of not getting big increases from where players are this year. That’s coming in the coming years.”

Explanation: The only unrestricted free agent is Vinnie Hinostroza ($1 million cap hit this season). The Hawks loved his speed, energy and puck support, and players sang his praises. However, the forwards group might get crowded fast with the potential return of Toews and Nylander, the likely arrival of Henrik Borgström and the potential signing of 2020 first-round draft pick Lukas Reichel.

Meanwhile, the Hawks traded for Adam Gaudette ($950,000), so you’d think they want to bring him back. Among the other restricted free agents, Pius Suter ($925,000) and Brandon Hagel ($880,833) are no-brainers, while David Kampf ($1 million) seems likely to return as the fourth-line center.

So the question is how much room is there for a free-agent forward — under the cap and on the roster. And if the Hawks do sign someone, at whose expense would it be?

Bowman also mentioned not having “big increases,” alluding to the fact RFAs generally don’t get big, budget-breaking raises, but he added that it’s “coming.”

Kevin Lankinen and Connor Murphy will be UFAs heading into 2022-23, while Kirby Dach and Dominik Kubalík will be RFAs and likely will command raises as top-six forwards. So if the Hawks intend to keep all of those players, that has to factor into the cap calculus when considering any long-term free-agent contracts.

The Hawks have said they plan to extend Nikita Zadorov, but that shouldn’t stop them from exploring the market for defensemen. They at least should kick the tires on some free-agent defensemen, especially ones with offensive skills.

The Hawks are still in the midst of a rebuild and missed the playoffs this season, so I don’t know how ready they are to splurge.

Tyson Barrie led all defensemen with 40 assists and 48 points for the Edmonton Oilers, so he’s probably looking for at least $5 million annually.

Cody Ceci had a surprising season for the Pittsburgh Penguins with four goals, 13 assists, a plus-18 rating and 2.8 defensive point shares, the latter two second on the team to Kris Letang. The 27-year-old Ceci is 6-foot-2 and 210 pounds with a right-handed shot. Depending on how much someone is willing to pay him after his one-year, $1.25 million deal this season, they might be able to pry him out of Pittsburgh.

The Buffalo Sabres have several skaters coming up for new deals and probably can’t keep them all, including defenseman Jake McCabe, who had a $2.85 million cap hit. However, he had knee surgery in February, and the Sabres might be ready to clear the way for Mattias Samuelsson, anyway.

The Dallas Stars will have first crack at keeping Jamie Oleksiak ($2.137 million) if he clears the expansion draft. But if they can’t work out a deal, he’s another defenseman to consider. If you thought the 6-6, 235-pound Zadorov helped the Hawks with their size issue, what could the 6-7, 255-pound Oleksiak do? His 148 hits ranked seventh in the league, three places behind Zadorov (190).

If the Blackhawks signed Corey Crawford last season, would they have made the playoffs? — Steven R.

That’s difficult to answer. At his healthiest, there’s no question Crawford would’ve been the best option in net, and he probably wouldn’t have given up as many breakaways, soft goals, rebounds and puck-handling mistakes as his younger counterparts, Kevin Lankinen, Malcolm Subban and Collin Delia.

But Crawford might not have been at his healthiest — and it wouldn’t do any good to ponder a hypothetical in which he was. He battled recurring concussion symptoms in the latter stages of his career and fought through a bout with COVID-19 last summer to play for the Hawks in the return-to-play postseason with almost no training camp to get ready for two tough series.

After the Hawks declined to give him the long-term future he was seeking, Crawford signed with the New Jersey Devils but never practiced or played for them.

“I wanted to continue my career but believe I’ve given all I can to the game of hockey, and I have decided that it is time to retire,” he said less than a week before the season opener.

Whether Crawford wasn’t up to enduring another season emotionally or physically, or a combination, is unknown, but if he had resumed his role as the Hawks’ No. 1 goalie, there would’ve been an immediate conflict of interests.

The Hawks already planned to test their young players to see what they have, and that plan was accelerated by the absences (to varying degrees) of Jonathan Toews, Brent Seabrook, Alex Nylander, Zack Smith, Andrew Shaw and Calvin de Haan.

So how would playing mostly a crop of first- and second-year players while Lankinen sat on the bench have served the long-term goal? We likely wouldn’t have witnessed Lankinen’s surprising rookie campaign.

But, OK, let’s just look at this season in a vacuum.

Crawford had a .917 save percentage and 2.77 goals-against average last season and a .913 SV% and 2.85 GAA over the last two seasons. Lankinen finished this season with a .909 SV% and 3.01 GAA.

Not terribly far off, and Lankinen faded a bit down the stretch.

And there are other considerations.

The Hawks essentially tied the Buffalo Sabres with a league-worst 33.7 shots allowed per game (the Sabres allowed one more shot than the Hawks’ 1,888 over 56 games). Another indicator of how strong the defense would’ve been in front of Crawford is the penalty kill, which ranked 28th (76.8%). Last season, the Hawks ranked ninth (82.1%).

Conversely, the Hawks were middle-of-the-pack with 2.84 goals per game, whereas their offense averaged slightly more (2.97) the season before.

And it’s possible Crawford would’ve found himself in another timeshare like he had with Robin Lehner, especially if Lankinen proved himself capable early on. Only this time it would have been within a condensed 56-game schedule.

Also, how much of a playoff run could the Hawks have made missing top weapons such as Toews?

Crawford would’ve had to help the Hawks win five more games (or the points equivalent) to edge the Nashville Predators and make the playoffs, so you have to consider the likelihood given all of those factors. It wouldn’t have been impossible for someone of his credentials, but what would it have cost in the long run?

What is the plan to improve defensive play in our end? This has been a major issue since just before Q left. Under Colliton there has been no progress. Also is it true that their defensive system is man to man? If so it is clearly obvious that it is not working. Despite bringing in new young players and FA vets, the play is still the same, as are the results. Unless the goalies stand on their heads, they have no chance to win. — Dave M.

The Hawks have ranked worst or second-worst in shots allowed per game in three seasons under Jeremy Colliton. They allowed the seventh-most goals per game (3.29) this season, which isn’t all on the goalies.

The Hawks don’t run a strict man-to-man defense, rather a hybrid “man and a half,” but when there have been breakdowns in responsibilities, the results can be disastrous (my thoughts go to a comment from another reader below, Evan P., who said opponents “cycle in their zone until somebody loses their man”).

Colliton has been asked a few times about the high volume of shots, but he has downplayed the sheer number of shots as a problem in itself.

To summarize what he has said: It’s not about the quantity of shots but the quality, with a priority on keeping shots to the outside and not in the middle, where you’re most vulnerable.

Colliton has focused less on defending the merits of his system and more on fixing what he sees as bad habits that compromise the defense.

In other words: execution.

Some of those factors would be losing faceoffs, turning the puck over, sustaining offensive zone time, clearing the puck, clean exits out of the defensive zone, etc.

“Defensively, we know we’ve got to keep improving, so we’ve got to practice and keep practicing and also that’s video and continuing to show these guys the details of the game that will help you defend better,” Colliton said during his exit interview earlier this month.

He said he’ll consider “tweaks,” but he didn’t sound receptive to wholesale changes.

“There’s lots of little adjustments you make during the season and little tweaks that we have done and will continue to do to make it easier,” he said. “Ultimately, a lot of it boils down to … making sure that we’re boxing out at the net, taking sticks, making sure that we’re quick to close, get a stop and then ready to support to go the other way.

“We know that when you look at a lot of teams in the league that are having success, (they) play a very similar way. There’s going to be minor differences in approach in specific situations, but where we’ve got to invest most of our time is individually, continuing to help guys get better and understanding what it takes to defend in the league and what it takes to get out of D-zone, and we’ll keep working at that.”

Look at the Hawks division next year: Wild, Blues, Avs, Stars. No way they make the playoffs again. — Evan P.

I can’t say whether the Hawks will have enough firepower to make the playoffs next season, but there’s no question they should be in better position.

They may get Jonathan Toews back, and several young players should take a step forward with their first full training camp and preseason.

But you’re right, the Central Division next season won’t provide much of a reprieve.

Last season, the Hawks finished last in the “normal” seven-team division with a .514 points percentage. In this season’s “COVID-19” alignment — which featured the defending champion Tampa Bay Lightning, Florida Panthers, Carolina Hurricanes, Nashville Predators and Dallas Stars as well as the lowly Detroit Red Wings and Columbus Blue Jackets — the Hawks finished sixth out of eight teams with a .491 points percentage.

The Central rival Minnesota Wild, St. Louis Blues and Colorado Avalanche were in the West this season — and all three made the playoffs, with the Avalanche (39-13-4, 82 points) winning the Presidents’ Trophy for the league’s best regular-season record.

The Winnipeg Jets were in the all-Canadian North Division, and they qualified for the playoffs too.

The Predators earned the last playoff spot in the Central, and the Hawks went 1-5-2 against them.

The Stars finished fifth and out of the playoffs, but they were five points ahead of the Hawks and are a season removed from playing in the Stanley Cup Final.

The rebuilding Arizona Coyotes, who will join the Central next season as the Seattle Kraken take their spot in the Pacific, finished with just one more regulation loss than the Hawks. The Coyotes will have a bit of a reset with a new coach.

At least the Hawks won’t have to face the Lightning, Panthers and Hurricanes eight times apiece next season, but don’t expect them to find any weak sisters in their division in 2021-22.