Chicago Blackhawks season ticket renewals are performing better than expected, but fans’ patience could be limited

The Chicago Blackhawks season is done and the United Center sits empty — and now the work begins to make sure it doesn’t look that way next season.

The NHL’s average regular-season attendance returned to pre-pandemic levels (95.5% of capacity), according to NHL Stats and Information.

But the Hawks (7%), Nashville Predators (6.2%) and Arizona Coyotes (60%) were the only teams whose attendance fell more than 1% — though the Coyotes can blame their drastic decline on their move to tiny 5,000-seat Mullett Arena.

Hawks attendance dipped from 18,490 per game last season to 17,167. A total of 703,861 walked through the gates for 41 home games, according to NHL Stats.

That’s about 87% of the United Center’s official capacity of 19,717 for hockey. But it’s 80% of the 2019-20 average of 21,441 — the last of a 12-year run of 21,000-per-game averages.

“We have a large arena, the largest in North America from a seating standpoint,” Jaime Faulkner, Hawks president of business operations, told the Tribune. “Ideally we’d love to fill every single seat and standing room only seat that we have.

“But the reality is I’m not surprised you’re not going to sell out a building if you’re not putting a consistent winning product on the ice. It’s where we expected it to be.”

The Hawks finished 26-49-7, third from last in the league.

“Hopefully down the road, as this team gets better, as we bring more fans in and sort of grow them in their fandom, we will continue to be able to fill the house,” Faulkner said. “I think we’ll do that over time.

“I think the difference (in the future) will be that our commitment will be that we will always have availability and affordable seats for people to come to the Blackhawks games.”

The Hawks topped 21,000 once last season — on Nov. 20, when 21,182 came out to see Marián Hossa’s number retired against the Pittsburgh Penguins.

The Hawks nearly reached that level again in the season finale April 13 against the Philadelphia Flyers, which drew 20,219 for Jonathan Toews’ swan song and a farewell for longtime trainer Mike Gapski.

However, the Hawks dipped to the 12,000 range twice early in the season — numbers they hadn’t seen since they averaged 12,727 in 2006-07, before Toews or Patrick Kane ever played an NHL game.

Their rookie season the next year was the last time the Hawks averaged below 18,000 (16,814).

Consider the circumstances the Hawks ticket department is facing: They won’t have Kane or Toews next season, and the team likely has reached the nadir of the rebuild after mostly cleaning house before the trade deadline.

If there’s one sure-fire draw from the NHL draft, it’s projected No. 1 pick Connor Bedard, but the Hawks’ odds of landing him shrank by playing spoiler against the Penguins on April 11 and ultimately falling to the third-best slot in the lottery — an 11.5% chance of winning the first draw.

It creates the central question for the Hawks business side to ruminate over this summer: What will put butts in seats next season?

Faulkner said there’s reason for optimism.

Before the season, the Hawks barred several national ticket brokers from hoarding season tickets, which “killed our renewal percentage by not allowing a good chunk of those tickets to renew,” she said.

She said 68% of season ticket holders renewed last season, but they’ve reached 80% renewals for next season in April. It should be noted that the Hawks reduced the season ticket pool and have considered putting a cap on available season tickets, in part to preserve their value.

“We’d hoped we would finish at 80% by the end of July,” when they’re ready to launch their single-game sales push, Faulkner said. “We’re already at 80% now.”

Faulkner also isn’t worried about the lack of marquee names — Kane and Toews commonly graced the exterior of United Center and had been packing fans into the building for a decade and a half.

“I would say that we’ve been without Kane (since his trade to the New York Rangers), and our attendance has been pretty good,” she said. “I think people are excited about the hockey they’re seeing on the ice. This team does not give up when they come out and play. You never know what to expect. It’s only going to continue to get better under (coach) Luke (Richardson).”

“Quite honestly, next year is going to be based off of the draft and how well our prospects have developed. What’s the level of hockey going to be next year? Will they keep up the pace, will they keep up the hustle, will they keep up the level of work? Will the new guys bring that into the locker room as well? That’s what they want to see.

“We’ll miss those guys (Kane and Toews) because there’s been incredible memories, incredible hockey … but I’m not sure that I’m concerned that it’s going to impact our ability to sell tickets and for people’s desire to come and be a Blackhawks fan.”

Professor Dennis C. Coates, editor of the Journal of Sports Economics at the University of Maryland-Baltimore County, shares Faulkner’s outlook — to a point.

“I believe that (fans) are generally supportive of the rebuild, if they believe that this rebuild is progressing, if they believe they see some evidence that it’s working,” said Coates, who has a doctorate in economics. “It’s really sort of how long does it take? Do we get two years of this rebuild process before fans are like, ‘Yeah, this isn’t going to work, and you’re just losing our interest’? Or is it going to take a round of the draft this year and the draft next year? Third year out, that team better be pretty darn good.

“I think fans are patient in that regard. They understand that you can’t do this immediately. You can’t do it overnight. But I don’t think that they have infinite patience with those sorts of things.”

A highly touted prospect could help, and Faulkner is hoping whomever the Hawks draft June 28 or call up from Rockford helps extend that grace with fans.

But if general manager Kyle Davidson sticks to his plan to season his top prospects through the AHL or juniors, the Hawks might have to get creative.

“It’s going to mean we have to make sure we’re delivering every single night on a great experience for the things we can control when you’re not in your seat,” Faulkner said.

That aligns with what she said in February, when attendance was performing better than expected.

For many fans, “it’s actually about what’s happening on the ice, but for a lot of them because it’s just such a fun environment and experience,” Faulkner said in February about the Hawks’ in-game entertainment. “Some of them can’t even tell you who was on the ice. People were coming into entertainment for different reasons.”

Coates isn’t so sure that moves the meter.

“I’m not a big believer in the razzle-dazzle fireworks stuff,” said Coates, who studies fan behavior across various sports. “People go to watch a hockey game. And when the fireworks and all that’s going off, most people are running off to the concession stand or the bathroom in my experience.

“Does that bring people in? I’m not sure how much that it does. But when you’re talking about this decline from 21,000 to 17,000, I don’t think that you’re going to recover much (with entertainment). And it’s not like they haven’t done promotions.”

However, from his experience, even an incremental improvement in play can improve turnout, even if it’s better scoring and not necessarily wins.

And he strongly advises the Hawks to spend some of their $41 million in projected cap space on talent.

“Even moving up the standings a few spots could do wonders for their attendance,” he said. “That’s the simplest thing: Spend the money they’ve got available (under the cap) for salaries and put a much better product on the ice, and I bet their attendance improves.

“Will it go back to the 21,000, standing room only, 500 consecutive games sellouts? That’s much harder to say. (But) I think Chicago has always been a reasonably supportive hockey town.”

Stranger things have happened in Chicago sports.

Fans were disgruntled after former GM Stan Bowman’s spending spree two summers ago failed miserably, but this season they rallied behind a group that at times could’ve doubled as the minor-league affiliate Rockford IceHogs — though they often proved to be feisty underdogs.

“People were really unhappy last year (2021-22),” Faulkner said. “All of a sudden this year, everybody’s loving what’s happening. And they’re behind the team and they stay till the end of the game.

“It’s crazy.”