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Will the Chicago Bulls keep their pick? What players are available? Everything you need to know about the 2021 NBA draft lottery.

jamal collier, chicago tribune
·3 min read

Last March, when the Chicago Bulls traded away their first-round pick in the 2021 NBA draft, they did not expect to miss the 2021 postseason. Yet they find themselves hoping to keep their pick away from the Orlando Magic in Tuesday’s draft lottery.

If the Bulls land a pick in the top four of the draft, they will retain their selection and add a significant building block to their roster. If they draw a pick outside the top four, on July 29 they will owe their pick in the draft to the Magic.

General manager Marc Eversley will hope to capture the good fortunes that smiled on vice president of basketball operations Artūras Karnišovas last year, when the Bulls jumped to the No. 4 pick despite having the seventh-best odds.

Before the pingpong balls are drawn Tuesday night, here’s a look at what you need to know about the Bulls lottery odds:

Why might the Bulls lose their draft pick?

When the Bulls landed Nikola Vučević at the trade deadline in March, they sent two first-round draft picks to Orlando, in 2021 and ’23 in addition to two players — Wendell Carter Jr. and Otto Porter Jr.

The Bulls had the postseason in their sights at midseason and thought, understandably, that adding an All-Star would only increase their chances of making the playoffs. They couldn’t have predicted the nightmare second half that would follow, but they did build in a top four protection around the pick in case of disaster.

What chances do they have to keep it?

The odds are slim, but actually not that bad.

A few years ago, in an effort to curtail teams from tanking, the NBA improved lottery odds for each of the non-playoff teams. So, even though the Bulls finished tied for the eighth-worst record in the NBA (Sacramento Kings and New Orleans Pelicans), they still have a 20.3% chance of moving into the top four. Last season, in fact, they jumped from having the seventh-worst record pre-lottery into the No. 4 overall pick, so it’s not unheard of.

Here’s the breakdown on the Bulls odds for each pick:

  • No. 1: 4.5%

  • No. 2: 4.8%

  • No. 3: 5.2%

  • No. 4: 5.7%

Now that also gives the Bulls about an 80% chance of losing their pick. The Bulls cannot end up with the fifth, sixth or seventh pick, so unless their draft slot improves into the top four, they will be selecting somewhere between Nos. 8 and 12 and owe that pick to the Magic.

Who could the Bulls add with a top 4 pick?

The Bulls drafted forward Patrick Williams with the No. 4 overall pick in the 2020 draft and he quickly established himself as one of the faces of the franchise going forward.

This year’s draft class, however, is even more highly regarded.

Oklahoma State’s Cade Cunningham is the consensus No. 1 overall prospect with Gonzaga’s Jalen Suggs, USC’s Evan Mobley and Jalen Green, who played for the NBA G League Ignite, all expected to follow in some order.

What happens if the Bulls keep their pick this year? Do the Magic get anything?

If this year’s first round pick does not convey, the Magic still have one more chance to receive that initial first-round pick in 2022. The protections also reportedly get lighter, switching to top three protected, according to the Athletic.

If somehow the Bulls received a top four pick this year and a top three pick in 2022, the Magic would never receive that initial first-round selection, getting a pair of second-rounders instead. For now, this scenario is pretty unlikely.