Chicago Fire say they improved last year. But coming off a 5-win season, how is ‘progress’ being defined — and what gives them optimism for 2021?
If the theme of the Chicago Fire entering Year 2 under sporting director Georg Heitz and coach Raphael Wicky were a “Jeopardy!” category, it would be “Words That Start With ‘P.’ ”
The $200 answer is a gimme: The Fire hope to qualify for this by the end of the season. (“What are ‘playoffs?’ ”)
After missing the 2020 postseason — in which a generous 10 of 14 teams in the Eastern Conference qualified — the Fire know they have to play deep into November to prove their rebuild is on the right track.
But the solution to the $1,000 clue is a bit more difficult to define — namely, what is “progress” and how are the Fire measuring it?
Heitz, Wicky, technical director Sebastian Pelzer and owner and Chairman Joe Mansueto all have said the Fire showed improvement over the course of last season.
But if that progress didn’t show in the standings — the Fire won just 5 of 23 games and went 0-2-4 in the final six matches, half of which were at Soldier Field — on what are they basing their optimism?
Heitz said the Fire’s belief in their progress is the result of the eye test.
“It’s difficult to quantify,” he said this week during a conference call. “I cannot come up with metrics. We always had ... very good metrics regarding the miles the boys ran during the games, and we were always in the top clubs of the league after each round. And so metrics is one thing, no?
“It was simply also the impression that they left during the games, the number of chances that we created grew, increased throughout the season. Overall it was really a fact that we were better in the second half, but we have to admit we were not good enough to make the playoffs.”
Certainly, some advanced metrics — such as xG, or expected goals — indicate the Fire should have been better last season. According to FBref.com, the Fire had a 38.9 xG, the best in the Eastern Conference and third-best in Major League Soccer, but had only 33 goals to show for it.
But they also had the East’s third-worst expected-goals against at 35.4 and conceded 39 times — a number that would put the Fire tied for last in the stronger Western Conference.
Of course, statistics can be open to interpretation, and it’s worth remembering that at the end of the 2019 season under then-coach Veljko Paunovic and former President and general manager Nelson Rodriguez, the Fire cited xG as proof their performances were better than their record. (“Our football did not let us down,” Rodriguez said at the time.)
“The goal of reaching playoffs is something everybody wants, so we have the same objective as all the other teams,” Wicky said. “But we played really well last season. We built on some really good things and some really good foundation.
“Obviously there were moments where we have to improve. There were some times where maybe we gave up a 2-1 or a 1-0 (lead) or something like that, 20 minutes left in the game. So we have to work on those things, tighten up in the back so that there are less moments on corner kicks or set pieces where there’s a little bit of a missed concentration. But we laid a good foundation last year and now with that foundation we are able to build upon it this year and get started to reach our goal for this season.”
That foundation had its moments. Striker Robert Beric’s 12 goals were tied for second-most in MLS, and Mauricio Pineda, recently called up to U.S. under-23 national team camp, led the Fire in minutes as a rookie and received plaudits for his play at center back.
The majority of the team’s core returns this season with one big exception. Midfielder Djordje Mihailovic, who led the team with seven assists, was dealt to CF Montreal for up to $1 million in allocation money.
“We as a unit, the core guys that have been here just have to step up and try to create assists ourselves,” midfielder Fabian Herbers said. “I don’t think it’s too big of a loss for us. We can compensate for that this season and we can be successful.”
Such confidence comes from the team’s offseason additions — striker Chinonso Offor, winger Stanislav Ivanov and defender Jhon Espinoza, partly the result of the team’s burgeoning scouting department, Heitz said.
“We knew early what we wanted position-wise and we knew early who we wanted,” he said.
The Fire are hopeful having an interrupted 2021, unlike last season’s start-stop nature because of COVID-19, will help build cohesion, captain Francisco Calvo said.
“We were a pretty new team last year,” he said. “It’s not an excuse, but we just brought in a lot of good new players, so we needed a lot of time to get to know each other. ... This year with a normal preseason and facing the regular season, I think Chicago Fire is going to achieve really good things. I’m really positive and I believe in this group this year.”
Whether those factors result in victories is another word that starts with “P” — possibly, but there’s no guarantee.
