Chicago’s population is declining, but it’s still the nation’s third most populous city, new census data shows

Matthew Carlin moved from Albany Park with his pregnant wife and twin daughters to the Indianapolis area this month. Born and raised in Chicago, Carlin said the decision came down to education, cost of living and crime.

“It’s all over the place, and, unfortunately, there’s no consequences in Chicago,” Carlin said, citing the recent bat attack in his former neighborhood. “I just felt like it was time to get out of Chicago and start the next chapter of our lives for our family.”

People constantly come and go, but new estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau show that Chicago lost about 81,000 people, or just under 3% of its population, from 2020 to 2022. Despite the decline, the city retained its position as the nation’s third most populous city, after New York City and Los Angeles, in 2022. Houston was ranked fourth.

Chicago’s population as of July 1, 2022, was estimated at 2,665,039, with changes calculated from the estimated base of April 1, 2020.

The census also estimates that Illinois lost more than 230,000 people, or about 1.8%, in that time. Much of the reported decline — about 176,000 — came in the Chicago metropolitan area, which covers 14 counties including Cook and the collar counties, and extends into Indiana and Wisconsin.

Census figures have come into question recently, particularly since the agency estimated in 2020 that Illinois lost population — but a follow-up survey released last year concluded the state instead gained 250,000 people, a significant flip-flop.

The 10-year census from 2020 resulted in the state losing one congressional seat, and population reports continue to affect the amount of state and federal funding cities get.

Whatever the accuracy of the estimates, recent societal forces due to the COVID pandemic, George Floyd protests, increased crime and taxes, and working from home likely are having some effect, urban planning experts say.

More broadly, Chicago is part of a regional trend driven by nationwide forces — a general migration, led by retiring Baby Boomers and young job seekers, from the Midwest to warmer, cheaper and economically growing areas in the South.

Many relatively wealthy and low-crime suburbs, for instance, from Country Club Hills to Arlington Heights to Evanston and Winnetka, lost comparable percentages of population, if not more. Among other large municipalities, Elgin dropped 1.2%, Aurora and Waukegan fell 1.3%, and Joliet fell .1%, while Naperville added .3% and Gary gained .4%, the Census Bureau reported.

“This is not a Chicago story, it’s an Illinois story and a Midwest story,” said Rob Paral, senior research specialist at the Great Cities Institute of the University of Illinois at Chicago.

Another factor he cited was reduced immigration during COVID and before. The recent surge in migrants at the Mexican border and the 8,000 migrants who’ve overwhelmed Chicago’s resources since the fall were not counted in the census estimates, which were made as of July 1, 2022.

A previous study also found that while some Blacks were moving out of Chicago, they were not being replaced at similar rates as in the past.

A lower birth rate in the area is another contributing factor, said Christine Percheski, a Northwestern University associate professor of sociology. “Most of what I’ve seen is due to changes in fertility and immigration,” she said.

Eamon Kerrigan-Krodel, 22, graduated from Ohio State University in December and is moving to Chicago in July, where he got an accounting job. He likes Chicago’s nightlife, affordable rent and public transportation.

“Being able to take the train into work or pretty much anywhere you want to go in the city is awesome,” he said.

Kerrigan-Krodell is relocating at a time when Chicago’s rental market is booming, with the city seeing some of the fastest price increases in the country, indicating high demand.

Looking ahead, Chicago has to continue to reduce crime and improve its image and necessities like public transit, said Dan Cooper, senior director of research at the Metropolitan Planning Council.

“The next couple of years will tell the story,” Cooper said. “Downtown is missing the vibrancy it had in the past. Chicago has more headwinds than most cities, but we have one of the best downtowns in the country. We’re at a pivotal moment where we need to attract people into the city.”

U.S. Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi, who has criticized the Census Bureau’s methods, said in a prepared statement that he was extremely disappointed to see another update without improvements to correct undercounts.

“While the Census Bureau has begun efforts to address these undercounts through expanding outreach to hard-to-count communities and working to cover frequently undercounted populations such as children under the age of four,” Krishnamurthy said, “we need the Census Bureau to immediately implement these and the other necessary changes it has had a year to evaluate to improve the accuracy of its data.”