Chicago’s population grew slightly over the last decade, according to 2020 census

CHICAGO — Chicago grew by about 50,000 residents over the last decade, according to 2020 U.S. Census data released Thursday.

The decennial population count put Chicago’s total at 2,746,388 residents -- a 1.9% increase over the 2010 total. The Chicago number was revealed during a Washington news conference. More detailed county and regional data is expected later Thursday.

Chicago remains the nation’s third-largest city, but No. 4 Houston continues to grow at a faster rate. The largest city in Texas is now up to 2.3 million residents, growing nearly 10% over the last decade.

Chicago’s gain in population in the last 10 years is a stark contrast to the previous decade, when the the city lost 200,000 residents -- a 6.9% decrease.

The drop from 2000 to 2010 was fueled largely by a 17% decrease in the number of Black residents, many of whom left neighborhoods on the South Side and West Side. Chicago’s white population decreased slightly over that decade while its Latino population grew 3%.

Former Mayor Rahm Emanuel led the city for eight years of the decade counted by the 2020 census. He relentlessly pursued growth downtown and in nearby neighborhoods, pushing through zoning changes that allowed for greater density in neighborhoods such as the West Loop.

At the same time, Emanuel faced criticism for not focusing enough on stabilizing economically challenged neighborhoods on the predominantly Black South Side and West Side, which also have had bouts with violent crime for decades.

Asked Thursday if he thought his pursuit of corporate headquarters and the growth of neighborhoods near the Loop helped drive the slight population gain, Emanuel said he wouldn’t take a guess without first seeing a breakdown of the data. He did not hesitate, however, to tout the city’s population increase.

“I am proud for all the new residents who now call Chicago home,” Emanuel said. “They see what we have seen: strong schools, safe streets and stable finances make for sweet home Chicago.”

While city census tract data will offer a more complete picture of the population shifts in the city, downtown Alderman Brendan Reilly said he was “fairly certain downtown, the South Loop and West Loop are responsible for most of that growth.”

“The central business district continues to be a magnet for investment, development, headquarter relocations and job growth,” said Reilly, 42nd. “Young professionals continue to want to live and work in our vibrant downtown neighborhoods. Once the FDA approves the vaccine and employer mandates kick in, many business owners and developers believe that we will see an acceleration of economic growth again in the downtown central core.”

State population totals were announced by census officials in April, and Illinois was just one of three states to lose population. While the drop was not as large as expected, Illinois’ 2020 population of 12,812,508 represented a loss of more than 18,000 people or a 0.14% decline, from 10 years earlier.

Thursday’s data provided a more detailed picture of the changes in the state’s population.

All but 14 of the state’s 102 counties lost population. Those that showed at least incremental growth included Cook and all five collar counties, along with the exurban counties of Grundy and Kendall. Kendall grew the most over the decade, up nearly 15% to 131,869 from 114,736 in 2010.

Downstate, Carroll, McLean, Champaign, Effingham, Williamson and Johnson counties showed slight growth.

But several Downstate counties suffered significant population losses of at least 10%, including some in western and southern Illinois. Alexander County at the southwestern tip of the state had the biggest loss, shedding 36% of its residents over the decade, shrinking from 8,238 people to 5,240.

The census marks the first time since Illinois joined the union in 1818 that the state’s population has declined over the previous decade. The decline was anticipated because of out-migration to other states as well as a slow-down in the number of immigrants moving in that had kept overall population growing.

Chicago’s population topped out at 3.6 million in the 1950 census. The city’s population has decreased in all but two of the seven decades since -- the exceptions being the 10 years counted in the latest census and the 2000s, when Chicago grew by 4% due to a large influx of Latino immigrants.

The six-county Chicago region has grown over the same period, thanks to often explosive suburban growth in Cook County and the five surrounding collar counties. The region grew from 5.1 million in 1950 to 8.3 million between 2000 and 2010.

With every new census count comes the once-every-decade reapportionment of each state’s congressional delegations to reflect population shifts. Illinois once again will lose one of its 18 congressional seats. Mississippi and West Virginia were the only other two states to shrink.

In addition to Illinois, six other states will lose a seat in Congress: Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, New York and California. Texas will gain two U.S. House seats while Florida, Colorado, Montana, North Carolina and Oregon each will pick up one.

The results show Pennsylvania leapfrogged Illinois to become the fifth most populous state while Florida passed New York for No. 3.

The 2020 census has been mired by delays, due in part to the COVID-19 pandemic but also because of unsuccessful efforts by former President Donald Trump’s administration to block the counting on non-citizens.

Ron Jarmin, the acting director of the Census Bureau, acknowledged the difficulty of conducting the count amid a pandemic but said he was confident in the accuracy of the results.

“Every way we’ve analyzed the 2020 Census—through our extensive reviews during data processing, by comparing the numbers to population benchmarks, and looking at the operations—the census data are high quality,” Jarmin wrote in post on the Census Bureau’s website. “In fact, the quality of the 2020 Census data is quite remarkable amid all the challenges we faced last year.”

As a result of the delays, the population data released Thursday by the Census Bureau came in an outdated format that is more difficult to analyze, but was pushed out in an effort to help states start their redistricting of congressional seats. A more modern version of the data, along with more state and city-specific analyses, is expected to be released next month.

In whatever form, the new population numbers promise to have plenty of political ramifications, as they will not only be used to redraw the state’s congressional districts, but Chicago’s ward map and thousands of other local government districts.

Democrats currently hold a 13-to-5 advantage in the state’s congressional delegation, thanks in large part to the new map they drew in 2011 when the party controlled the governor’s mansion and both chambers of the state legislature. At the time, Republicans held an 11-8 majority in the delegation.

Prior to 2011, the congressional remap had been a bipartisan process among the state’s delegation, back when Republicans had either control of a state legislative chamber or the governor’s mansion. The current map, which also was drawn after Illinois lost a congressional seat, pitted Republican incumbents against each other, moved them into new territory and forced them to face Democrats in districts drawn to their disadvantage.

Much the same is expected this fall once Democrats have had a chance to crunch the data.

They are expected to lump two Republicans from Downstate, which has seen large population losses, into a single district. One scenario discussed privately by Democrats would put Republican U.S. Reps. Mike Bost of Murphysboro in southern Illinois in the same district with GOP freshman U.S. Rep. Mary Miller of Oakland in east central Illinois.

Democrats also could look to shore up the western Illinois seat held by retiring U.S. Rep. Cheri Bustos, one of seven House Democrats representing a district won by Trump. They could make a similar move to protect second-term U.S. Rep. Lauren Underwood of Naperville, who won a close reelection fight in the sprawling west, northwest and northern suburbs and exurbs.

The new detailed census data, however, will not be used to draw new state House and Senate districts. That’s because lawmakers had a June 30 constitutional deadline to draw new boundaries or face a process that would have given Republicans 50-50 chance of controlling the remap.

As a result, Democrats used American Communities Survey data from the Census Bureau to draw the map, less specific information that relies on estimates vs. the more detailed census results. Gov. J.B. Pritzker signed the new districts into law despite a campaign pledge that he wouldn’t support a partisan-draw map, a promise he later modified to say only that he wouldn’t back “unfair” maps.

Democrats have said they may use the census data to tweak some of the district lines they’ve already drawn. That would require a new vote by the legislature in the fall.

The state map is currently the target of lawsuits filed by the state GOP and the Mexican American Legal Defense and Education Fund over the use of population estimates rather than actual Census data.