Chicago rainfall 2021: It’s not enough — and here’s what forecasters predict for fall
Look up this weekend to appreciate the clear blue, sunny sky and feel the unseasonable warmth on your face. Look down, however, and you’ll probably be greeted by parched, brown grass.
September has not been kind to rain-starved Chicago. Just 0.01 of an inch has been recorded at O’Hare International Airport, the city’s official recording site, so far this month.
Weather experts say that’s extremely dry, piling onto an already thirsty year — O’Hare is currently more than 8 inches below normal precipitation totals and could be 10 inches below normal by the end of September unless more rain falls there.
Year-to-date, Chicago has received 20.15 inches of rain — the 17th driest on record through Sept. 14, according to Trent Ford, Illinois state climatologist.
“The only recent year that was drier by this time was 2005, when the city recorded 16.95 inches through September 14th,” Ford wrote in an email to the Tribune. “For perspective, 2012 was just slightly wetter by this time of the year with 20.17 inches. So, this year is most certainly a significant drought year in northern Illinois.”
What drought means for area harvests
Lake and McHenry counties have experienced the largest precipitation deficits in northeastern Illinois since spring, according to Ford — approximately 10-12 inches below average. Dryness is noticeable in crop yields.
“Namely, stunted corn, the tips of corn cobs not filling (which means less overall yield), and soybeans not filling as many pods as they would under normal moisture conditions. Based on my communications with folks in that area and reports I’ve gotten from other sources it seems the actual impacts to yields are highly variable,” Ford wrote in an email to the Tribune. “Most folks will not have a great year in terms of yield, some may hit average, but I think many will be slightly to moderately below average on yield. That area got enough rain in the critical July-August period that the crop wasn’t a complete loss, like it was in 2012 or 1988.”
Above-average temperatures combined with dry, windy conditions mean crops and top soils are withered right now. The possibility of fire sparked by harvesting machinery is troubling for farmers — both for their personal safety and the possibility of crop loss, Ford said.
“Outlooks through the end of September are heavily leaning to both warmer and drier than normal conditions prevailing, which means a heightened risk of combine fires throughout the harvest,” he said. “And, if a particular day is very dry (low humidity) and very windy, it is probably best to stay out of the field that day to avoid the risk of widespread field fire.”
The forecast
Don’t expect any good, steady rain for the Chicago area in the next week, says Brett Borchardt, meteorologist for the National Weather Service’s Chicago office. Light rain could fall Friday night along the Illinois-Wisconsin state line, but most of the area will remain dry, he wrote in an email to the Tribune. Tuesday and Wednesday of next week show the most promise for precipitation.
“While it’s still a little too early to talk about potential rainfall amounts, there will be an opportunity for a few communities to see around an inch of rain depending on where thunderstorms track,” Borchardt said. “We’re definitely keeping an eye on long-term precipitation prospects as the drought continues across northern Illinois. We’ll take any rain we can get!”
What to expect this fall
It could be a beautiful autumn — or it could not.
“There is a chance of rain later next week, and beyond that the week two outlooks are leaning to above normal precipitation, but that is still quite uncertain,” Ford said.
Beyond that, the Climate Prediction Center says a transition to the La Nina climate pattern is possible in the next few months.
“It is looking more and more likely we will reenter La Niña this fall/winter. La Niña falls tend to be a bit drier and warmer across the Midwest, but there is A LOT of variability between La Niña years,” Ford wrote in an email to the Tribune.
