Chiefs-49ers Super Bowl prediction: Why Patrick Mahomes is underdog vs. San Francisco

The Kansas City Chiefs play the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LVIII on Sunday.

Here are the details:

Kickoff: 5:30 p.m. Central on Sunday

Where: Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas

TV: CBS (Channel 5 in Kansas City, Channel 12 in Wichita)

Radio: WDAF (106.5 FM in Kansas City, KNSS 98.7 FM in Wichita)

Line: 49ers by 2.

Game prediction

The Chiefs find themselves in a familiar place for Super Bowl LVIII: as an underdog.

And logically, I can understand why that is.

Years of research tell us to believe the large sample size over the smaller one. And while Kansas City has upped its level of play over the last few weeks, that doesn’t change the fact that San Francisco was a much more dominant team throughout the regular season.

It’s really not close, either. Aaron Schatz recently ranked the top Super Bowl champions all time — 1 to 57 — based on his advanced DVOA team statistics. And it’s a good illustration of the gap between these two teams when looking at season-long numbers.

If the 49ers win Sunday, they’ll slot in around the 16th-best NFL champ ever. And the Chiefs, if they’re victorious? Right around 51st.

So how is this only a two-point spread in favor of the 49ers?

The answer goes back to a fundamental question we discussed last week in this space: What is your level of faith in Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes?

There are reasons to think this matchup will be trickier than the AFC Championship Game against Baltimore. KC is more short-handed without injured defensive end Charles Omenihu, and San Francisco is less likely to abandon the run game as the Ravens did two weeks ago.

Mahomes, though, has been nearly perfect over the Chiefs’ last three games. He has no turnovers over that stretch and no interceptable passes, according to FTN’s data, meaning he’s combined efficiency play and crazy accuracy with the added bonus of eliminating nearly every negative play.

He’ll have to be good again. The 49ers defense is aggressive up front, and because the Chiefs are playing without injured left guard Joe Thuney, their running game isn’t as likely to be as productive as in earlier weeks.

Still, is it wise to bet against Mahomes at this point? Especially given that he’s fully healthy, while playing at the peak of his powers this postseason?

There will be some game-within-the-game details to watch, too.

One can’t-miss strength-vs.-weakness matchup involves San Francisco’s run offense. The 49ers rank first in run offense DVOA, while the Chiefs are 27th in rush defense. San Francisco coach Kyle Shanahan surely saw how poorly it went when Baltimore ditched the run game early against KC two weeks ago, and he should be much more apt to lean into the strengths of left tackle Trent Williams and running back Christian McCaffrey while trusting there will be an eventual breakthrough if he commits to the ground game.

Shanahan has some creative ways he could go about it. The 49ers are comfortable with multiple tight ends and running backs on the field, and shifting to those heavier personnel sets could force Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo away from some of the lighter defensive looks he’s had so much success with this season.

Conversely, the Chiefs should have the advantage on short-yardage runs, where they’ve fared well this year (and where the 49ers defense has had issues). KC also could lean offensively on a three-tight-end package it’s frequently used in the playoffs — a setup San Francisco’s defense has rarely faced all season and might struggle to counter.

Something else to watch: 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy has been excellent this season, but his worst moments have come when he’s pressured and tried to force the ball into tight windows. KC hasn’t been great with takeaways this season, though that can change quickly, as evidenced by its plus-three turnover margin against Baltimore.

The Chiefs have a history of redemption moments in the playoffs, so let’s start here with a bold non-game prediction: All-Pro cornerback Trent McDuffie, in his second season, will intercept a Purdy pass, getting his first career interception in his 34th NFL game.

As far as the game goes ... it should be a great one.

The Chiefs have the clear edge in the kicking game with Harrison Butker, in case a field goal has to decide it. Their defense has been great with second-half adjustments, and they undoubtedly have the game’s best player in Mahomes.

San Francisco has been the better team ... for the season. But in a one-game setting — with a championship on the line — it’s awfully hard to count out Mahomes when he’s made fools of those who did before.

I see the better QB winning this one. Give me the Chiefs for both the win and cover.

Chiefs 23, 49ers 21

Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas City

Last game prediction: Chiefs 28, Ravens 27 (Actual: Chiefs 17-10) ✔️

2023 record vs. spread: 12-8

Last two seasons record vs. spread: 24-16