Chiefs-Bills prediction: Is Mahomes’ underdog status relevant in KC-Buffalo rematch?

The Kansas City Chiefs play on the road against the Buffalo Bills for a Divisional Round game in the NFL playoffs on Sunday.

Here are the details:

Kickoff: 5:30 p.m. Central on Sunday

Where: Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York

TV: CBS (Channel 5 in Kansas City, Channel 12 in Wichita)

Radio: WDAF (106.5 FM in Kansas City, KNSS 98.7 FM in Wichita)

Line: Bills by 2 1/2.

Game prediction

This game should be a great one — both for drama and storylines.

Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen are two of the NFL’s best quarterbacks — not only in the past few seasons, but this year as well. And while both offenses were often mistake-prone this season, they remain tough to stop when rolling, as each puts up drive-to-drive efficiency numbers that rank among the best in the NFL.

The setting adds something as well. Buffalo has engaged and crazed fans, and they haven’t had many chances lately to play the Chiefs in their own stadium — an opportunity that finally arrives in the playoffs on Sunday.

Weather forecasts for the game aren’t amazing, but could be worse. Precipitation isn’t expected, with Sunday night temperatures predicted to fall in the low 20s with wind chills around 10. Meanwhile, having wind gusts between 10-25 mph isn’t perfect, but still will be better for the passing games than what KC experienced at home last week.

It’s honestly hard to pick against Mahomes. Our Sam McDowell earlier this week went over all the numbers you need to know, but the quick synopsis is this: Mahomes is 6-3 in his career as an underdog, and the Chiefs in those games are 7-1-1 against the spread. The star quarterback doesn’t get these types of games often, but when he does, we usually see his best.

But what about Allen? He’s been as good as any signal-caller in the NFL over the last two months, and his ability to run and pass makes him more matchup-proof than what the Chiefs faced with Tua Tagovailoa a week ago.

The Bills present other challenges, too. They’re a good running team, and James Cook can also catch, which raised issues for the Chiefs defense last month. Their ability to run two-tight-end sets with draft pick Dalton Kincaid also adds a personnel wrinkle that the team couldn’t go to a season ago.

Buffalo has some defensive injuries — cornerback Christian Benford being out is the most consequential — but isn’t nearly as beat up on that end as Miami was while going against KC. And while some back-end injuries could open things up for the Chiefs’ secondary receivers, that’s a spot where KC hasn’t found consistent answers throughout this season.

In a close game, KC does have a couple of clear advantages that could swing the game. One is on special teams, where kicker Harrison Butker has been more reliable than his counterpart, Tyler Bass. That could play a factor, especially because weather conditions will challenge that particular special-teams facet.

The other is tackling. KC emphasized that in the cold last week and delivered, logging just two missed tackles according to Pro Football Focus’ charting. On the other hand, Buffalo had 10 missed tackles in a similarly cold game against Pittsburgh, as it continued to labor in an area that has been a problem all season.

In an evenly matched game, small edges could certainly make the difference. One to watch will be penalties; the Chiefs love getting physical with opposing receivers, but that’s much easier to do without flags at home than on the road. There’s a reason home-field advantage is worth 1 1/2 to 2 points, and typically, that’s refereeing (subconsciously) playing to both the home team and the crowd.

These are two of the AFC’s best teams playing for high stakes, which should make for a memorable matchup Sunday.

In the end, I give the slight nod to the Bills, believing home field will make a difference and Allen will be difficult to stop, even when faced with a challenging opponent and scheme.

Bills 28, Chiefs 23

Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Buffalo

Last game prediction: Chiefs 27, Dolphins 21 (Actual: Chiefs 26-7) ✔️

2023 record vs. spread: 11-7

Last two seasons record vs. spread: 23-15