Chiefs-Dolphins prediction: Why KC faces philosophical question vs. Miami in Germany

The Details

Kickoff: 8:30 a.m. Central on Sunday

Where: Deutsche Bank Park, Frankfurt, Germany

TV: NFL Network or Channel 41 (NBC) in Kansas City

Radio: WDAF (106.5 FM in Kansas City)

Line: Chiefs by 1 1/2.

Jesse Newell’s prediction

There will be an interesting subplot when the Kansas City Chiefs take on the Miami Dolphins in Frankfurt, Germany on Sunday.

Will Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo play to his defense’s strengths? Or try to slow down Miami by attacking its weakness?

It’s the same philosophical question DCs often faced when going against Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes in recent years — especially when he had receiver Tyreek Hill.

You probably remember the storyline. No matter what a defense was good at coming into the game, it usually played two deep safeties against the Chiefs, working to neutralize Hill’s speed while forcing Mahomes to move the football down the field methodically.

This year’s Miami offense presents a similar challenge — namely, the Dolphins absolutely roast man coverage.

The coverage-tracking stats at FTN Fantasy provide the evidence. Miami’s passer rating against man coverage this season is tops in the NFL at 135.3 — well ahead of second-place Buffalo (123.9). Meanwhile, the Dolphins’ adjusted net yards per attempt — a fancy stat that factors in touchdowns and interceptions — against man coverage is three yards better per play (at 12.42 yards per attempt) than any other NFL team.

You play man coverage against Miami at your own risk, knowing the Dolphins’ speed can turn any misstep on those snaps into potential touchdowns.

But will Spags really want to change his spots here?

The Chiefs’ defense has played man coverage the fourth-most of any NFL defense (57.2% of pass attempts, according to FTN Fantasy’s numbers) with some solid results. Chiefs coaches also like man coverage because it’s more of an aggressive approach, resulting in KC dictating some on the defensive end rather than surrendering most of the control to opposing receivers.

And perhaps man coverage on Hill could work some, given the circumstances. We all know he will be fired up to go against his former team, so land some early jams on him, and it could potentially get him frustrated during a game in which he certainly wants to perform.

In any case, the Chiefs’ defense exceeding 2023 expectations makes this a fun matchup against the league’s top offense. Miami appears to be getting a bit healthier, too. It looks like the Dolphins will at least get left tackle Terron Armstead back; that’s important, as he’s been their most dominant player up front this season.

Miami has few weaknesses offensively, outside of perhaps the interior offensive line. And the skill-position players are second to none, especially factoring in quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s output that has elevated him to a legitimate MVP candidate.

There are some questions, at least, about how Miami has done against tougher competition. And KC’s defense should be that, no matter the game plan it chooses.

Offensively, I see the Chiefs bouncing back from last week’s dreadful effort against Denver. The simplest theory is often the correct one, and it seemed to me like a game where Mahomes was off while playing sick. Miami’s defense has some pass-rushers and a couple of good coverage guys, but overall, it’s a below-average unit that has struggled to cover tight ends (uh oh) and slow down opponents’ run games.

We shouldn’t overlook special teams in a contest that should be close, either. The Chiefs have the clear edge at kicker with Harrison Butker, and you never know when that sort of thing might be the deciding factor.

Big picture: I see the Chiefs’ passing game returning to form, with the offense getting to 30 points for just the third time this season.

Add in a solid defensive showing against a formidable offense, and I like the Chiefs for both the win and cover in Frankfurt.

Chiefs 30, Dolphins 24

Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas City

Last game prediction: Chiefs 28, Broncos 27 (Actual: Broncos 24-9) ✔️

2023 record vs. spread: 5-3

Previous two years’ record vs. spread: 17-11