Chiefs-Jaguars prediction: Has Jacksonville closed the gap on KC from a season ago?

The Details

Kickoff: Noon Central on Sunday

Where: TIAA Bank Field at EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville

TV: CBS

Radio: WDAF (106.5 FM) in Kansas City

Line: Chiefs by 3 1/2.

Jesse Newell’s prediction

Repeat after me: Do not overreact to Week 1.

Sure, the Kansas City Chiefs had some alarming developments in its season-opening loss to the Lions. The receivers struggled with drops and with throwing it to the other team. KC’s run game was non-existent. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes made the most out of a challenging situation early, but then seemed to move off some open guys too early while losing some faith in teammates late.

It’s important to know some of those will likely be Game 1 things. Drops, for instance, are finicky, and expecting a team to battle that same issue two contests in a row would likely not be a wise bet.

KC gets some reinforcements Sunday too. Tight end Travis Kelce and defensive end Chris Jones — considered two of the Chiefs’ three best players — are expected to play against Jacksonville. Based on last week’s betting lines, that should give the Chiefs a roughly two-to-three-point boost from what the team had last week against Detroit.

So have the Jaguars closed the gap with the Chiefs since last season’s playoff loss? Perhaps just slightly.

KC was an 8 1/2-point favorite in that game at home, compared to a 3 1/2-point favorite in this one. Take out the 1 1/2 points on both ends for home-field advantage, and Vegas expects the two teams to have moved a couple of points together since the offseason began.

It makes some sense, especially if you think Kelce and Jones won’t be at full strength. The Jaguars are an ascending young team, with an improving QB in Trevor Lawrence and a defense that had plenty of encouraging moments in last week’s 31-21 road win over the Indianapolis Colts.

This pick, to me, comes down to the Chiefs offense. And whether you think last week was a trend or a fluke.

Given the past few seasons of Mahomes with coach Andy Reid, I have to lean toward the latter.

It won’t be easy for KC’s offense, especially on the road. Jacksonville pass rusher Josh Allen had one of the best weeks of any NFL player last week with three sacks. Meanwhile, Tyson Campbell is emerging as one of the league’s elite cornerbacks, and linebacker Foye Oluokun backed up a standout 2022 season with a strong opener against Indy.

The Chiefs proved something true in last year’s Super Bowl, though: Good offense is the NFL’s trump card. It can beat bad, average or even good defenses. And when in sync, the Chiefs make things tougher on defenses than any other offense.

Will it all be fixed for Week 2? Probably not. But giving the Chiefs (and Reid) a few extra days after last week’s Thursday game to fix things makes me think a bounce-back is more likely than not.

The Chiefs defense faces a tough test too, and some regression from last week’s strong effort there could also be expected. Lawrence is excellent at making quick read-based decisions, and he has only added options this year with the acquisition of receiver Calvin Ridley, who will help without the Jaguars’ offensive line being at full strength.

In the end, I could see plenty of offensive success both ways, even if the two teams have to battle some rainy conditions in the second half. I still like the Chiefs to pull away, though, getting a win and cover while putting some concerns about their Week 1 scoring effort to rest.

Chiefs 31, Jaguars 24

Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas City

Last game prediction: Chiefs 30, Lions 21 (Actual: Lions 21-20) ❌

2023 record vs. spread: 0-1

Previous two years’ record vs. spread: 12-9