Chiefs-Patriots prediction: Why Kansas City’s offensive struggles confuse me so much
The Kansas City Chiefs go on the road to face the New England Patriots on Sunday. Here are the details:
Kickoff: Noon Central on Sunday
Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
TV: FOX (Channel 4 in Kansas City)
Radio: WDAF (106.5 FM in Kansas City)
Line: Chiefs by 8 1/2.
Game prediction
Having faith in Kansas City’s offense did not pay off in this space last week.
And, to be honest, a lot of the recent struggles for the Chiefs on that end don’t make a whole lot of sense.
The Chiefs remain fourth offensively in the all-encompassing DVOA metric. And while that’s not up to the typical Patrick Mahomes/Andy Reid standard, it remains much better than the overall outside perception.
Those numbers, to me, are screaming out a fact about this team that can be difficult to grasp: The Chiefs offense, in general, has been failing in a fluky way.
Yes, KC’s receivers are dropping the ball at a historic rate ... but that hasn’t popped up every week. And, of course, the Chiefs have racked up penalties on offense, but that’s more like a minor annoyance for a good offense rather than a fatal flaw.
Which brings us to the final thing that has hurt KC that doesn’t seem all that sustainable: turnovers.
The two biggest plays of Sunday’s Chiefs-Bills game were both giveaways. KC gave away 6.2 expected points on Mahomes’ first-quarter interception (via rbsdm.com), then 4.4 more when Rashee Rice coughed it up late in the third.
These are bad moments, no doubt. But do you think they will continue? Will that happen two or three times every game for the Chiefs?
History tells us no. And that again makes it a tempting occasion to think KC might fix itself by doing everything it has recently ... minus a couple of miscues.
New England’s defense has been excellent lately, but a wide-angle view shows more cracks than many outsiders might expect. The Patriots defense, specifically, ranks 11th in DVOA while just 21st against the pass.
Offensively, it’s been a mess for New England all year, with the team flashing limited rushing success to go with poor quarterback play and shoddy pass protection.
Maybe this will not look very smart again this time next week. And perhaps the Chiefs are just cursed this year to suffer the fate of “two bad plays” each game to kneecap what are otherwise strong offensive performances.
I think the Chiefs have it in them, though, to play a game where they keep up the efficiency while refusing to hand the other team 10 free points.
If it happens against New England, this one won’t be close. Give me the Chiefs for the win and cover.
Chiefs 27, Patriots 10
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas City
Last game prediction: Chiefs 27, Bills 24 (Actual: Bills 20-17) ❌
2023 record vs. spread: 8-5
Last two seasons record vs. spread: 20-13
