Chiefs’ projected win total from NFL Network analytics expert dwarfs rest of AFC West

The Chiefs have put together one of the greatest five-year stretches in NFL history with three Super Bowl appearances, two Lombardi Trophies and five straight home AFC Championship Games.

In that span, the Chiefs have won the AFC West each year and have seven straight division titles dating to the 2016 season.

NFL Network analytics expert Cynthia Frelund believes Kansas City has a great chance of extending that streak to eight.

Frelund gave her win projections for the entire AFC West in the 2023 season, and the Chiefs are head and shoulders above the rest of the division.

“The defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs are looking for their eighth straight AFC West title and have my highest projected win total entering the 2023 season,” Frelund said. “Kansas City proved their offense could continue to be elite even after losing Tyreek Hill as Patrick Mahomes led the NFL with a 119 passer rating when not under pressure. Andy Reid and company relied more on the short passing game and their MVP quarterback proved his game is adaptable to any play style, racking up 31 touchdowns on passes of fewer than 10 air yards, 12 more than anyone else in the league.

“Brett Veach is doubling down on protecting Mahomes, signing both Jawaan Taylor and Donovan Smith this offseason, as Orlando Brown Jr. signed with their AFC rival Cincinnati Bengals. The Chiefs’ offense will need to adjust this season without OC Eric Bieniemy who’s now with the Commanders. Mahomes also lost JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman this offseason, meaning Kadarius Tony and Skyy Moore will need to step up in their second seasons with the team. I have the Chiefs projected for 11.6 wins in 2023.”

Here are the projected win totals for each AFC West team from Frelund, and it’s a sizable gap between first and second.

1. Chiefs 11.6

2. Chargers 8.9

3. Broncos 8.1

4. Raiders 6.8