Chiefs-Ravens prediction: Why KC-Baltimore pick comes down to a fundamental question
The Kansas City Chiefs play on the road against the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC Championship Game on Sunday.
Here are the details:
Kickoff: 2 p.m. Central on Sunday
Where: M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore
TV: CBS (Channel 5 in Kansas City, Channel 12 in Wichita)
Radio: WDAF (106.5 FM in Kansas City, KNSS 98.7 FM in Wichita)
Line: Ravens by 3 1/2.
Game prediction
This pick comes down to a fundamental question: What is your level of faith in Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes?
To be honest, the Chiefs don’t have as much going for them like they did in previous rounds of the playoffs. They aren’t at home in a frigid environment, which threw off their South Florida counterparts. They also aren’t playing an opponent coming off a short week with multiple injuries on defense, which allowed KC to utilize a heavy-personnel look to expose the Buffalo Bills’ most significant weakness.
KC is the team with a day less to prepare this week against Baltimore. And it’s also the more beat-up squad as well, with All-Pro guard Joe Thuney (pec injury) out and linebacker Willie Gay (neck) listed as questionable.
Oh, did I mention the Ravens are really good? Like really good? The all-encompassing DVOA ranking — it takes into account play-by-play statistics — loves Baltimore so much that it led to this real-life headline: “Are the Ravens the hottest team ever?”
DVOA makes a convincing case. Baltimore’s recent-game-adjusted rating is the highest of any NFL team entering this round ever — or at least as far as these advanced stats go back, which is 44 seasons ago.
The Ravens are No. 1 in rush offense. No. 1 in overall defense. No. 1 in pass defense.
They’re playing at home, too, which is a 1 1/2-to-2-point advantage that can’t be ignored.
And yet the spread still sits at Baltimore by 3 1/2. It doesn’t make sense. There’s only one explanation.
That, of course, is Mahomes. And the assumed advantage the Chiefs get if their QB plays like he did last week against the Bills, which was peak-level Hall of Famer — and impressive even by his own lofty standards.
Defensively, the Chiefs have been vulnerable against the run. That’s a concern against the Ravens, who are excellent at that part with or without quarterback Lamar Jackson contributing.
You have to say this about KC’s defense and defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, though: They usually figure things out quickly. The Chiefs have allowed just 7 second-half points per game over their last 19 contests, so whatever creative things are thrown Spagnuolo’s way, KC fans should have some confidence that he’ll find a way to counter.
Something else to watch, and highlighted in JT O’Sullivan’s QB School video breakdown of Jackson this week: The Ravens QB can sometimes make questionable decisions against blitzes. There’s some danger there — if he gets by the first wave, running is an option for him too — but the Chiefs have been among the best blitzing teams all season, which at least gives one potential pathway toward defensive success.
Offensively, Mahomes sure could be helped if KC can get some run game going. The Thuney loss is significant, but at least backup Nick Allegretti is a system veteran who flashed some nice blocks last week against Buffalo.
Meanwhile, according to DVOA and Aaron Schatz, the Ravens were first in the NFL on first-down pass defense but just 19th against the run. It might be only a sliver of Kryptonite for the Ravens defensively, but the Chiefs should test them there to see if last week’s physical run game carries over Sunday.
That brings us back to Mahomes. He thrives in these spots. He loves playing the part of the “villain.” He’s 8-1-1 against the spread as an underdog and 7-3 straight up. Teammates have talked all week about him bringing a different level of intensity to both practices and the game.
The simple reality of the NFL remains this: Good offense beats good defense, and quarterback play is the ultimate trump card.
Mahomes has more obstacles to overcome in this game than any other this season. And it’s a bit dangerous to take too much from last week’s contest, when a whole season’s-worth of evidence points to this offense already showing a different (and lower) level of performance.
The Ravens are the better team. They are at home. They have the likely MVP, are more rested and are healthy at the right time of the season.
And yet ... the Chiefs have Mahomes.
I picked the Bills to win last week while underrating that previous sentence, and it’s not something I’m prepared to do twice in a row.
Give me the Chiefs for the win and cover. Mahomes, in all likelihood, will have to play an A-level game for KC to advance to this Super Bowl LVIII.
But, at this point, who’s to say he won’t?
Chiefs 28, Ravens 27
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas City
Last game prediction: Bills 28, Chiefs 23 (Actual: Chiefs 27-24) ❌
2023 record vs. spread: 11-8
Last two seasons record vs. spread: 23-16
