Chiefs seven-round mock draft 4.0: Trade possibilities and a final Round 1 prediction

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The 2023 NFL Draft is officially upon us — scheduled for April 27-29 at Union Station in Kansas City — so it’s time for our final mock draft ahead of this year’s event.

The Star previously revealed Mock 1.0, Mock 2.0 and Mock 3.0.

Here’s a look at our final predictions ahead of Thursday.

Round 1 (31st overall): WR Quentin Johnston, TCU

The Chiefs, as we’ve mentioned in this space before, are in an envious spot. They don’t have to be forced into taking a specific player or position, with their most prominent needs coming at receiver, offensive tackle and edge rusher.

Having said that ... they struggled this offseason to land free-agent wideouts like JuJu Smith-Schuster and Odell Beckham Jr., who went above budget to other suitors. There could be some natural temptation, then, to move up to select a receiver you like in the draft, which eliminates the free-agent bidding process and also would allow the Chiefs to get a young player on a cheap rookie contract.

Zay Flowers — as mentioned in our Mock Draft 2.0 — would be a great fit in the Chiefs offense. He separates off the line, has some Tyreek Hill-like qualities and also is the type of player who could be used with motion in KC’s offense to utilize his skill set best.

I’d think the Chiefs would think about moving up to No. 22 to get him. The Baltimore Ravens are at that spot, and as an analytically inclined team with just five draft picks this year, they’d presumably be willing to move back for additional resources. The math seems pretty easy here too; KC gave New England an additional third- and fourth-round pick to go from 29 to 21 last year, so a jump from 30 to 22 (especially with others potentially pursuing Flowers) likely would require similar compensation of a third- and fourth-round pick.

It’s challenging to predict trades, though — and beyond that, I think Flowers might end up even going before that point. If that happens, there’s not much the Chiefs can do other than wait for 31 to see who falls.

And in that scenario ... they still might get one of their guys at what would appear to be a great value. KC has been linked to TCU receiver Quentin Johnston for a while, and Ben Robinson’s excellent work at “Grinding the Mocks” shows a player who has never been in the Chiefs’ range in the last calendar year suddenly ... now is a possibility at 31?

TCU receiver Quentin Johnson’s stock
TCU receiver Quentin Johnson’s stock

A trade is conceivable here, too. If KC liked Johnston enough and wanted to ensure Buffalo didn’t get him at 28, a smaller bump to the late 20s could make sense.

The best scenario, of course, would be to sweat it out, keep all your draft picks, then take advantage if Johnston does get to 31.

We’ll say that happens here, with the Chiefs having their patience rewarded.

  • Mock 1.0 selection: DE Felix Anudike-Uzomah, Kansas State

  • Mock 2.0 selection: WR Zay Flowers, Boston College

  • Mock 3.0 selection: DE BJ Ojulari, LSU

Round 2 (63rd): DT Siaki Ika, Baylor

This would require a pivot from KC — it would still need to address offensive tackle and edge rusher soon — but Ika might just be too good to pass up if available at the end of Round 2.

Ika has excellent physical tools that didn’t always turn into production in his final year with the Bears. However, at least one mock draft from this month had Ika going in the first round to the Chiefs, so snagging him 32 picks later while banking that defensive line coach Joe Cullen could get the most out of him would seemingly be a clever move.

  • Mock 1.0 selection: DT Mazi Smith, Michigan

  • Mock 2.0 selection: DE Derick Hall, Auburn

  • Mock 3.0 selection: WR Jonathan Mingo, Ole Miss

Round 3 (95th from Miami): EDGE Isaiah McGuire, Missouri

McGuire checks too many boxes for the Chiefs not to give him a hard look if he makes it late in the draft’s third round.

The 6-foot-4, 275-pound defensive end fits the taller mold of what KC defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo likes at that position. McGuire also showed improved play his senior year, with Pro Football Focus ranking him 74th on its big board.

The Chiefs weren’t disappointed the last time they took a Missouri defensive player in the draft (Nick Bolton, 2021), and they’d have a chance at similar-type value if McGuire makes it this far.

  • Mock 1.0 selection: WR A.T. Perry, Wake Forest

  • Mock 2.0 selection: T Blake Freeland, BYU

  • Mock 3.0 selection: T Cody Mauch, North Dakota State

Round 4 (122nd, from Miami): CB Jaylon Jones, Texas A&M

Chiefs general manager Brett Veach spoke before the draft about cornerback being especially deep this year. That potentially means a talented player could fall to the middle rounds who might not be available there in other years.

The 6-foot-2 Jones might be there in this range after seeing his stock fall in recent weeks. Jones remains 93rd on the PFF Big Board, so even though the Chiefs don’t have a great need in the secondary, he’d be a strong pickup at this point.

  • Mock 1.0 selection: T/G Jaxon Kirkland, Washington

  • Mock 2.0 selection: RB Tyjae Spears, Tulane

  • Mock 3.0 selection: S Sydney Brown, Illinois

Round 4 (134th): OT Carter Warren, Pittsburgh

We had Warren going to the Chiefs in Round 6 of Mock 2.0, but given how we have this draft going (and with Warren’s stock ticking up lately), it would stand to reason KC could use its fourth-round pick to get him here.

Warren had his last season end with a knee injury, so the Chiefs’ medical staff would have to be OK with the selection. And Warren’s age (24) is higher than most in his draft class.

KC needs some depth to add to the right tackle mix, though, and Warren could fit the bill best at this point in the draft.

  • Mock 1.0 selection: RB Eric Gray, Oklahoma

  • Mock 2.0 selection: DT Colby Wooden, Auburn

  • Mock 3.0 selection: RB Deuce Vaughn, Kansas State

Round 5 (166th): S Anthony Johnson Jr., Iowa State

Like the earlier Jones pick, KC doesn’t have a huge need at safety, but Johnson should be on the Chiefs’ radar if he tumbles to this spot.

Pro Football Focus has Johnson 69th on its Big Board, and he elevated himself this past season after making the switch from corner. Spagnuolo and the Chiefs love guys with this type of swing versatility, so Johnson would fit in nicely with KC.

  • Mock 1.0 selection: TE Josh Whyle, Cincinnati

  • Mock 2.0 selection: DE Viliami Fehoko, San Jose State

  • Mock 3.0 selection: TE Josh Whyle, Cincinnati

Round 6 (178th from Miami): RB Keaton Mitchell, East Carolina

Mitchell — at 5 foot 8, 179 pounds — might be a running back. He could be a receiver. Maybe he’s a hybrid of both.

What we do know is he was a playmaker in college, and he’s someone Chiefs coach Andy Reid presumably would love to take at this point with the potential to have an impact somewhere with his speed and big-play ability.

  • Mock 1.0 selection: CB Cory Trice, Purdue

  • Mock 2.0 selection: OT Carter Warren, Pittsburgh

  • Mock 3.0 selection: DL Brodric Martin, Western Kentucky

Round 6 (217th, compensatory): LB Jeremy Banks, Tennessee

Veach said the draft had depth in the late rounds at linebacker, and Tennessee’s Jeremy Banks profiles well as a Chiefs target.

Banks had a top-30 visit with the Chiefs this month, so he’s a conceivable dart throw for KC. If nothing else, Banks’ aggressiveness and speed would make him a great fit with the Chiefs’ special teams.

  • Mock 1.0 selection: DL Shakel Brown, Troy

  • Mock 2.0 selection: RB Keaton Mitchell, East Carolina

  • Mock 3.0 selection: C/G Trevor Downing, Iowa State

Round 7 (249th): DT Desjuan Johnson, Toledo

KC also had a top-30 visit with Desjuan Johnson, who would make sense as a selection here so no other team could scoop him as an undrafted player.

Johnson — nicknamed “Boots” — stood out at the Senior Bowl and has some local ties as well; his late father, Dion, played defensive tackle for Kansas in the late 1990s.

  • Mock 1.0 selection: WR Antoine Green, North Carolina

  • Mock 2.0 selection: QB Max Duggan, TCU

  • Mock 3.0 selection: CB Darrell Luter Jr., South Alabama

Round 7 (250th): FB Hunter Luepke, North Dakota State

We’re not straying from Mock Draft 2.0 with the Chiefs’ last pick of this 2023 draft. KC’s fullback, Michael Burton, signed a free-agent deal with Denver, and Reid always reserves a roster spot for this niche position.

Luepke profiles as one of the top fullbacks in this draft class who could also handle the special teams role Burton left behind.

  • Mock 1.0 selection: S Jerrick Reed II, New Mexico

  • Mock 2.0 selection: FB Hunter Luepke, North Dakota State

  • Mock 3.0 selection: DL Jacob Slade, Michigan State