Chiefs-Vikings prediction: Why 1-3 Minnesota is probably even better than last year

The Details

Kickoff: 3:25 p.m. Central on Sunday

Where: U.S. Bank Stadium

TV: CBS

Radio: WDAF (106.5 FM) in Kansas City

Line: Chiefs by 3 1/2.

Jesse Newell’s prediction

The Vikings’ record basically should be ignored — both this year and last.

What Minnesota accomplished last season at 13-4 a season ago was crazy. Absurd. The Vikings went 9-0 in games decided by a touchdown or less, and somehow made their way to 13 wins despite being outscored by their opponents.

The FTN Football Almanac described Minnesota making the playoffs as “one of the biggest probabilistic flukes of modern NFL history.”

So how does a team back up that kind of luckiness from one season to the next?

By losing its first three games decided by seven or less and starting 1-3, of course.

The Chiefs, though, shouldn’t be taking these Vikings lightly.

A quick look at the numbers suggests KC would’ve rather played Minnesota a season ago. It’s early, but the all-encompassing DVOA numbers say the Vikings have an improved team this year, even if the standings don’t reflect that:

Vikings’ DVOA rankings

2022: 20th offensively, 24th defensively

2023: 12th offensively, 20th defensively

Offensively, Minnesota is dangerous through the air. Justin Jefferson is a future Hall of Famer, and tight end TJ Hockenson threatens to expose an intermediate part of the Chiefs defense that has struggled this year and last. Kirk Cousins has been solid this year, and if not for some fluky turnovers (those usually aren’t stable throughout a season), the Vikings’ offensive numbers would look even better.

Defensively, Minnesota has been ... different. Many analysts will single out the Vikings’ blitz rate — they lead the NFL in that — but Sports Info Solutions’ numbers show Minnesota also tops the league in percentage of three-man rushes. So it’s essentially this: Don’t expect the Vikings to do standard stuff on defense under new DC Brian Flores. They’re going to try to mask their poor pass rush with pressure, and they’re also going to throw a ton of secondary bodies on the field while moving those pieces in creative ways.

The line movement should be a concern for Chiefs fans. KC opened the week as six-point favorites, only to have that shift down to 3 1/2, as the team’s implied odds of winning based on those numbers has moved from 73% to 65%. Thus, the Chiefs are better than a coin flip to win this game ... but not a crazy amount higher than that.

It’s an interesting game for the Chiefs, who could have a reversal of storylines from last week’s win against the Jets.

KC’s offense should have some success against Minnesota, and quarterback Patrick Mahomes thus far has been historically great against the blitz. Meanwhile, it wouldn’t be surprising if the Chiefs defense had some shaky moments against a powerful Vikings offense, which combines the NFL’s top receiver with the type of tight end that’s been Kryptonite for KC before.

Add it all up? This seems like a close game ... and the Vikings know first-hand how random those can be.

Ultimately, I think a good day for the Chiefs offense will be the deciding factor. Give me KC for the win and cover.

Chiefs 31, Vikings 24

Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas City

Last game prediction: Chiefs 23, Jets 17 (Actual: Chiefs 23-20) ✔️

2023 record vs. spread: 2-2

Previous two years’ record vs. spread: 14-10