Foreign ministers from the Gulf states will start a five-day visit to Beijing on Monday in with energy expected to top the agenda.

China is worried about supply security following the turmoil in Kazakhstan, one of its key suppliers while the members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) want to find a counterweight for their over-reliance on the United States and Beijing's close ties to Iran, analysts said.

Chinese-led security group 'ready to act in Kazakhstan if needed'

Foreign ministers from four of the GGC's six members - Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman and Bahrain - as well as GCC secretary general Nayef Falah al-Hajraf will visit China from January 10 to 14 at China's invitation, foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin announced on Saturday.

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Further details of the visit have not been disclosed but the two sides are expected to seek common ground amid potential disruption to global energy supplies.

Zhou Chenming, a researcher from the Yuan Wang military science and technology institute in Beijing, said China hoped a closer relationship with the GCC states could secure supply chains after the violent unrest in Kazakhstan saw mass protests and Russian troops being sent in to help restore order.

"Kazakhstan is the key energy supplier for Beijing's West-East Gas Pipeline programme in Central Asia. The current political unrest in the country may affect China's future energy supply chain, which President Xi Jinping will not allow to happen." Zhou said.

"If any energy crisis happens because the West-East gas pipeline is forced to halt, only the Gulf countries can act as a replacement."

On Thursday, Uzbekistan, another supplier to the China-Central Asian gas pipeline, announced a halt to exports of oil and natural gas to ensure it could meet its domestic energy needs.

Washington and Beijing have also been exploring energy cooperation despite the heightened tensions between the two sides.

During Xi's virtual summit with Joe Biden in November, the United States asked China to take part in a coordinated release of oil reserves to stabilise soaring prices.

How will China's economic interests be affected by unrest in Kazakhstan?

The US has the world's largest reported strategic petroleum reserve at 727 million barrels while China has about 200 million barrels and is by far the world's largest importer of crude oil.

Any joint action by the two countries would have a major impact on global oil prices.

Observers said this proposal had prompted the GCC to approach China as a way of balancing their over-reliance on the US market.

"The GCC countries have accumulated tremendous of foreign currency reserves by exporting crude oil and natural gas.

"They have been doing a lot of business with the Americans but now see it as a problem and want to find a new way and a safe market for their capital," Yin Gang, a Middle Eastern affairs specialist with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said.

"The Chinese market could be an ideal option for the GCC, which could balance their overreliance on the US, and their relationship with Iran."

The Sunni-ruled GCC countries have a fierce rivalry with Shia Iran and are unhappy at the Biden administration's attempts to revive the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran.

"After the five-day tour, I believe that China and the GCC states may sign a document designed to strike a balance between the GCC, Iran and China, because Beijing and Tehran also signed a 25-year agreement on economic and security cooperation last year," he said.

Under the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with Tehran, Beijing promised to invest a total of US$400 billion over the next 25 years to secure energy supplies from Iran and help rebuild its economy after the US imposed crippling sanctions.

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The deal also covers a wide range of economic, cultural, security and military projects, including oil, gas and nuclear energy.

Eagle Yin, a research fellow at the China Foundation for International Strategic Studies, said China would look for other areas of cooperation with the GCC. He said the six member states are driven by their economic interest in the energy business, but this has pushed them to explore collaboration in other areas such as defence and security.

"The Gulf states see China as a real global power, a better relationship with Beijing will only benefit their domestic economic development," he said.

This article originally appeared in the South China Morning Post (SCMP), the most authoritative voice reporting on China and Asia for more than a century. For more SCMP stories, please explore the SCMP app or visit the SCMP's Facebook and Twitter pages. Copyright © 2022 South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.

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