China just posted its lowest growth rate in almost 30 years as the trade war hammers the economy — and the 'worst is yet to come'

china sports track fall
china sports track fall

Christopher Lee/Getty Images

  • China's economy has slowed to its lowest growth rate in nearly 30 years.

  • Gross domestic product grew by 6.2% year-over-year in the second quarter, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. That's down from 6.6% in all of 2018.

  • Most of the decline came from weakening exports because of the additional tariffs places upon Chinese goods.

  • The figure fell in line with expectations, however, as fallout over President Donald Trump's trade war outweighed the government's efforts to stimulate the Chinese economy.

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China's economy has grown at its slowest pace in the past 27 years after the effects of President Donald Trump's trade war outweighed the Chinese government's efforts to stimulate the economy.

The economy grew by 6.2% in the second quarter, a drop from 6.4% in the first quarter and 6.6% in all of 2018, according to China's National Bureau of Statistics.

"There's no doubt in anyone's minds that the trade war is a major contributing factor here, especially coming at a time when the economy was already in the midst of a slowdown," the online foreign-exchange broker Oanda said.

The dampening economy follows a difficult year for China in terms of US relations. The two economic giants increased tariffs back in May, and while they have since agreed to a truce, signs of a partnership don't look promising.

Read more: Stocks are rising as tepid Chinese growth has traders 'baying for more stimulus'

The growth rate was the lowest since the NBS started calculating its economic data in 1992, at the start of China's long bull run, according to the Financial Times.

Most of the decline came from weakening exports because of the additional tariffs places upon Chinese goods.

China PMI
China PMI

National Bureau of Statistics

In a report Monday, Nomura analysts said that for China "the worst is yet to come."

In a worst-case scenario, Nomura predicted that falling exports would shave 0.4 percentage points off China's GDP growth, with another 1 point of growth being erased by lower manufacturing investment caused by disruption of supply chains.

In the best-case scenario, Nomura still predicts a drop in GDP for the second half of 2019, resulting in 6.3% growth for the year.

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