China just posted its lowest growth rate in almost 30 years as the trade war hammers the economy — and the 'worst is yet to come'

Yusuf Khan
china sports track fall

Christopher Lee/Getty Images


  • China's economy has slowed to its lowest growth rate in 30 years.
  • Most of the decline came from weakening exports, due to the additional tariffs places upon Chinese goods. 
  • GDP grew at at 6.2% year on year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. 
  • The figure fell in line with expectations as fallout with Trump's trade war outweighed the government's efforts to stimulate the Chinese economy. 
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China's economy has grown at its slowest pace in the last 27 years in the second quarter of 2019 after the effects of Trump's trade war outweighed the Chinese government's efforts to stimulate the economy. 

The economy grew at 6.2% in the second quarter, a drop from 6.4% in Q1 and 6.6% from 2018's growth figure, according to China's National Bureau of Statistics. 

"There's no doubt in anyone's minds that the trade war is a major contributing factor here, especially coming at a time when the economy was already in the midst of a slowdown," said online forex broker Oanda.

The dampening economy follows a difficult year for China in terms of US relations. The two superpowers increased tariffs back in May and despite agreeing to a truce, signs of a partnership don't look promising. 

Read More: Stocks are rising as tepid Chinese growth has traders 'baying for more stimulus'

The growth rate is the lowest since the NBS started calculating it's economic data in 1992, at the start of China's long bull run according to The Financial Times. 

Most of the decline came from weakening exports, due to the additional tariffs places upon Chinese goods. 

China PMI

National Bureau of Statistics

In a report today, Nomura analysts said that for China "the worst is yet to come."

In a worst-case scenario, Nomura predicted that China would lose 0.4% of GDP due to falling exports, and another 1% on lower manufacturing investment due to disruption of supply chains. 

In the best case scenario, Nomura still predicts a drop in GDP for the second half of 2019, resulting in 6.3% growth for the year.

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