The Chinese and American presidents are expected to talk again soon, according to a top White House official.

"I wouldn't be surprised if, in the coming weeks, President [Joe] Biden and President Xi [Jinping] speak again," said US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan aboard Air Force One on Thursday, without elaborating.

Sullivan, who spoke to Xi's top foreign policy aide Yang Jiechi over the phone on Wednesday, is accompanying Biden on his first Asian trip as president.

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It would be Xi's third direct contact with Biden since the US leader took office in January last year. Both virtual summits, in November and in March respectively, were preceded by talks between Yang and Sullivan.

Summit diplomacy, which played a key role in stabilising the complex US-China relationship in the past, has largely failed to temper down rising tensions arising from geopolitical and ideological rifts over issues such as Taiwan, Hong Kong, Xinjiang and the war in Ukraine.

During their first meeting in November, Xi managed to secure Biden's commitment not to support Taiwanese independence, while the US leader sought to establish "common-sense guardrails" to avoid tensions flaring into military conflict.

Expectations for a temporary detente were also low in the lead-up to the pair's second meeting in March, which was overshadowed by China's refusal to condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Few observers believe the upcoming summit, which is expected to occur after Biden wraps up his six-day visit to South Korea and Japan, will yield any breakthroughs considering the deepening trust deficit.

Russia's attack on Ukraine has exposed a geopolitical fault-line that threatens to split the world between China and the US.

While Biden is expected to focus on North Korea's nuclear threats and China's ambivalence on the Ukraine crisis, Xi is likely to express Beijing's frustration about America's support for Taiwan and its building of anti-Chinese bloc in the Indo-Pacific.

Beijing is now looking at the Biden administration's Indo-Pacific strategy through the lens of Cold War hostilities, according to George Magnus, a research associate at Oxford University's China Centre, who said the two sides were focusing on getting Asian countries to align with them.

Xi is increasingly concerned about US support for Taiwan. Photo: Xinhua alt=Xi is increasingly concerned about US support for Taiwan. Photo: Xinhua>

"Biden's visit is an attempt to strengthen alliances and ties in the face of what is now the defining geopolitical rivalry of our time, between the US and the political West, and China," he said.

"It will doubtless exacerbate the most hostile external environment China has faced since the Mao [Zedong] era, and that is patently not good for a country that has depended on engagement and openness for four decades of economic success and political heft."

Benoit Hardy-Chartrand, an international affairs specialist at Temple University in Tokyo, said Biden's Asian trip was crucial for the regional geopolitical political landscape.

"The US President is keen to show that despite all the attention deservedly paid to the war in Ukraine, he will not waver in his focus on the Indo-Pacific," he said.

A successful trip, according to Hardy-Chartrand, would lead to even greater alignment between the US and Japan and could also bring the new conservative administration in South Korea further within the American orbit, after former president Moon Jae-in spent five years trying not to antagonise China.

"Therefore, if Washington has its way, this trip could result in an even greater gap between China and the US," he said.

Beijing said it would "closely watch" Biden's visit and urged the US and its allies not to "target or harm the interest of third parties".

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi did not mince his words during talks with his Japanese counterpart Yoshimasa Hayashi on Wednesday, accusing Tokyo and Washington of "joining hands to confront China" and playing the Taiwan card.

Zhiqun Zhu, a professor of international relations at Bucknell University, said Taiwan was the issue most likely to ignite a conflict between China and the US.

He noted despite Washington's pledges to honour its long-standing one-China policy, the Biden administration has increased arms sales and official exchanges with the island and stepped up efforts to obtain observer status for Taiwan at the World Health Organization.

"[Such moves] have added to Beijing's concerns that Washington is hollowing out 'one China' and backtracking on commitments to Beijing on this most sensitive and critical issue between the two countries," he said.

"Beijing seems not in a hurry to resolve the Taiwan issue now. More haste, less speed. But it seems like Washington is goading Beijing to fire the first shot in the Taiwan Strait. This is a worrisome trend and development."

Yun Sun, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center in Washington, said Beijing's stern warning regarding Taiwan underlined its wariness that Biden's Asia trip may hurt China's national security interests.

"On Taiwan, the Chinese are exasperated by the US 'salami-slicing' but cannot figure out an effective way to stop the US from inching further," she said. "We are at a stalemate on Taiwan."

According to Sun, North Korea and Ukraine are probably what Beijing perceives to be its leverage, as Beijing would want reciprocity for anything the US wants China to do on North Korea and Ukraine.

Sullivan said his talks with Yang on Wednesday were focused on "our concerns about North Korea's nuclear and missile activities and our view that this is not in China's interests."

While Beijing's frustration about Washington's encirclement effort was largely understandable, Hardy-Chartrand said China's rhetoric was unlikely to move the dial in any direction.

"The current joint posture of the US and Japan doesn't represent a departure from what we have been used to, although it has certainly hardened in recent years. Thus, China is essentially offering a warning to the US and Japan that their continued emphasis on Taiwan, among other issues, will only result in greater instability and tensions," he said.

China has also concerns about the imminent launch of Biden's signature regional trade initiative - the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework - a move aimed at countering China's economic clout in the region.

Despite high-level exchanges, including at the top leadership level, Magnus said "no one should be under any illusion that Xi's China is about to make a course correction".

He said: "In fact, it is more likely to double down on its current policies. We can only wonder what other senior officials in the party might be thinking about this mounting pile of problems ahead of the 20th party congress, and if Chinese politics are now reaching back to uncertainties that erupted almost half a century ago."

This article originally appeared in the South China Morning Post (SCMP), the most authoritative voice reporting on China and Asia for more than a century. For more SCMP stories, please explore the SCMP app or visit the SCMP's Facebook and Twitter pages. Copyright © 2022 South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.

Copyright (c) 2022. South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.