Christmas Day in Rochester could be the warmest in decades. How warm will it get?
Instead of a picturesque white Christmas, Rochester is looking at what could be the warmest Dec. 25 in the past two decades.
On Friday going into the weekend, the National Weather Service forecast was calling for a high temperature of 53 degrees and partly cloudy skies during the day, with a low of 42 degrees. AccuWeather predicts a slightly warmer 54 degrees, with mild and mainly cloudy conditions.
If the mercury rises to either forecasted high temperature, it will narrowly edge out the warmest Christmas Day in the past 20 years. The high temperature in 2014 was 52 degrees, with the second-highest temperature (50 degrees) the following year in 2015.
The high temperature has been below freezing in five of the last 20 years, including a chilly 21 degrees in 2022. NOAA weather data shows the normal temperatures for Dec. 25 in Rochester is a high of 36 degrees and an average low of 21 degrees.
Christmas Day temperatures in Rochester NY 2003-2022
Max Temp | Min Temp | |
2022 | 21 | 12 |
2021 | 49 | 38 |
2020 | 37 | 23 |
2019 | 48 | 24 |
2018 | 35 | 30 |
2017 | 34 | 17 |
2016 | 37 | 24 |
2015 | 50 | 33 |
2014 | 52 | 40 |
2013 | 26 | 4 |
2012 | 31 | 29 |
2011 | 47 | 26 |
2010 | 26 | 19 |
2009 | 39 | 23 |
2008 | 40 | 29 |
2007 | 34 | 26 |
2006 | 49 | 31 |
2005 | 43 | 31 |
2004 | 20 | 10 |
2003 | 37 | 29 |
What are the record temperatures for Christmas Day in Rochester NY?
While it may be a nice day to be inside or outside on Christmas, it will be far from a record high temperature. The hottest recorded temperature on Dec. 25 in Rochester is 66 degrees in 1982, while the highest minimum temperature is 49 degrees in 1932, according to the National Weather Service in Buffalo.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, the coldest Christmas Day in Rochester was 4 degrees in 1872, while the coldest low temperature was -12 degrees in 1980.
The data includes measurements from 1871 until 2022.
Since 1940, a plurality of high temperatures has been in the 30s (36%), while a high in the 50s is much rarer, occurring only five times in that span.
There have been as many Christmas days with a high temperature in the 10s (seven) as the 50s and 60s combined.
What will cause warm temperatures on Christmas Day in Rochester NY?
A high-pressure system across the mid-Atlantic will bring southerly winds into the area ahead of Christmas, said Kirk Apffel, a Weather Service meteorologist in a Dec. 20 interview. Winds from the south bring warmer temperatures, which is the predominant driving force between the heat-up around the holiday.
“The temperatures might change as you get closer to the day, a little bit, but it does look like a relatively warm Christmas Day and the rain will hold off until after,” Apffel said.
More: Forget about a white Christmas. How warm will it get in Rochester?
More: Christmas snow forecast: Here's what the Old Farmer's Almanac predicts
— Steve Howe covers weather, climate and lake issues for the Democrat and Chronicle and as a native upstate New Yorker thinks fall is the best season. Have any insight into changing winter weather? Share with him at showe@gannett.com.
This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Rochester NY Weather: Christmas Day could be the warmest in decades
