Christmastime is (nearly) here. Will it be cold or rainy in Florida for Christmas?

C. A. Bridges, USA TODAY NETWORK - Florida
·6 min read

It's beginning to feel a lot like Christmas. For Florida, anyway. But it won't last.

After a wild and wet weekend from a late-season storm that brought near-gale-force winds and record-breaking rainfall of 2 to 3 1/2 inches across much of the state (with some local areas receiving up to 5 inches or more), the Sunshine State can look forward to a mild, if cool week leading up to Christmas Day, according to National Weather Service forecasts.

A cold front swept in after the storm and is expected to bring overnight lows in the 30s north and west of Interstate 4, the mid-40s across Central Florida and the 50s in South Florida, with daytime temperatures in the 50s in the beginning of the week in most of the state to bring a little chill in the air for the holiday season. But by Christmas Eve temps should rise back up into 60s with Southwest and South Florida creeping back up into the 70s.

But what about Christmas? Will we see a repeat of last year, when Florida saw its coldest Christmas in over three decades?

No. Thanks to El Niño, in Florida all will be calm, all will be bright. But it will be wet.

As of Dec. 18, according to AccuWeather monthly forecasts, there's around a 60-75% chance of rain and a small chance of thunderstorms across the entire state on Christmas Day and a 25% chance on Christmas Eve. Except for Southwest and South Florida, which may see more rain on Dec. 24.

"Weak, moderate, and strong El Niños all share similar features for the month of December," DTN meteorologist John Baranick wrote on a blog post earlier in November. "It is usually very warm for most of the U.S. outside of the Southwest where it is typically cooler, while precipitation increases are seen across the southern tier."

In fact, the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center's 6-10 day outlook suggests warmer-than-normal temperatures across the entire contiguous United States with a 40-50% chance of above-normal temps for Florida and a 60-70% chance in the Panhandle and a 50-60% chance of above-normal precipitation.

And that's important because there will be a lot of people on the road and in the sky.

What to know about the ‘Cold Moon:’ Christmas will be extra bright this year

AAA predicts second-highest holiday travel forecast since they started tracking

According to AAA, 115.2 million travelers will be heading 50 miles or more from home over the 10-day holiday period covering Christmas and New Year's, a 2.2% increase over last year and the second-highest year-end travel forecast since the organization began tracking holiday travel 23 years ago. Nearly 104 million of them will be on the road, AAA said.

Florida may break its own record from last year, AAA spokesman Mark Jenkins said. An estimated 6.6 million Floridians are expected to travel for the holidays, a 3.4% increase over last year's 6.4 million.

Debbie Haas, Vice President of Travel for AAA, said. “AAA has seen steady year-over-year growth in travel demand, culminating with what is expected to be the busiest year-end holiday travel season on record in Florida, and the second-busiest nationwide,” Haas said.

AAA predicts that airports will be the busiest they have ever been over the holidays, with 7.5 million air travelers.

Will it rain on Christmas in Florida?

National Weather Service precipitation forecast for Dec. 23-27, 2023.
National Weather Service precipitation forecast for Dec. 23-27, 2023.

Probably.

The entire state has a 50-60% chance of 50-60% chance of above-normal precipitation from Dec. 23 through the 27th, according to the NWS, with a 40-50% chance at the very tip of the Panhandle. Note that these are not chances of rain, but chances of above-normal rain for that time period.

AccuWeather's monthly forecasts as of this week predict a rainy Christmas Eve and Christmas across most of the state, with a greater chance of rain on Christmas Eve in the South and Southwest, subject to change as weather systems continue to develop.

Will it be hot or cold on Christmas in Florida?

National Weather Service temperature outlook for Dec. 23-27, 2023.
National Weather Service temperature outlook for Dec. 23-27, 2023.

Jack Frost will not be decorating any Florida windows. The NWS predicts above-average temperatures for the holiday week with a higher chance in the Panhandle. The entire contiguous country, except for South Carolina and parts of Arizona, is expected to be warmer than usual for the holidays, especially around the Great Lakes and northern midwest.

AccuWeather's monthly forecast for Florida predicts Christmas Eve overnight temps in the 50s-60s across most of the state (dipping into the high 40s in the Panhandle), rising to the 70s for Christmas Day.

What does the Farmers' Almanac predict for Christmas weather in Florida?

The Farmers' Almanac forecasts plenty of snow and rain across most of the U.S. this upcoming winter.
The Farmers' Almanac forecasts plenty of snow and rain across most of the U.S. this upcoming winter.

According to the Farmer's Almanac's Chistmas predictions for Florida, "Some cold and wet precipitation may dampen this Christmas – but never our holiday spirit!"

Conditions for the Southeast Zone, including Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, and Florida, are expected to be cool and rainy off and on, with a "slow clearing" after Christmas.

The Almanac has predicted a return to cooler weather in its 2023-2024 winter forecast, with a greater chance of rain for the southeast.

"The Southeast and Florida will see a wetter-than-normal winter, with average winter temperatures overall, but a few frosts may send many shivers to snowbirds trying to avoid the cold and snow back home," the Farmers' Almanac predicted.

The Old Farmers' Almanac, a competitor, predicts rain and then sunny, cold days for Dec. 25-28.

Believe them or not? The Farmers' Almanac predicts normal temps and a wet winter for Florida. How accurate is it?

What did the Farmers' Almanac predict for Christmas weather around the country?

If you'll be traveling for the holidays, here's what you can expect to run into, according to the Farmers' Almanac:

  • Northeast & New England: New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Washington D.C. may see some precipitation leading up to the end of the month but should see "clear skies for holiday events."

  • Great Lakes, Ohio Valley & Midwest: Same for Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, Kentucky, Illinois, and Wisconsin.

  • North Central: Missouri, Iowa, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Colorado, Wyoming, and Montana may see a white Christmas, the Almanac says. "Possible heavy snow in Colorado and over the Plains just in time to set the mood for the holiday."

  • South Central: Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Texas, and New Mexico can expect a "stormy Christmas" across New Mexico to Texas, with rain coming to the Gulf Coast.

  • Northwest: The forecast for Washington, Oregon, and Idaho is a somewhat mysterious "unsettled weather slowly improves for the Christmas holiday!"

  • Southwest: California, Nevada, Utah, and Arizona may see heavy snow, but Arizona may clear up in time "for opening presents."

This article originally appeared on The Daytona Beach News-Journal: Florida Christmas weather: Mild temps, rain expected for holiday