CIA’s fake vaccine campaign to find Osama bin Laden in Pakistan led to drop in child inoculations

A health worker administers polio vaccine drops to a child during a polio vaccination door-to-door campaign in Pakistan's port city of Karachi  - RIZWAN TABASSUM /AFP
A health worker administers polio vaccine drops to a child during a polio vaccination door-to-door campaign in Pakistan's port city of Karachi - RIZWAN TABASSUM /AFP

A CIA fake vaccine campaign to seek out Osama bin Laden in his Pakistan hideout led to a significant fall in children's vaccinations, researchers have found.

The ruse led to vaccination rates falling by almost two-fifths in areas with strong support for hardline extremist political parties.

The findings in the Journal of the European Economic Association come as doctors worry that lingering suspicion from the affair may undermine a Covid-19 vaccine rollout.

The US intelligence agency used a local doctor called Shakil Afridi to set up a fake hepatitis B vaccination programme to collect DNA samples from children at a compound where he was believed to be hiding. Under the plan, if DNA showed the children were Bin Laden's it would pinpoint his location.

When the ruse was disclosed two months after a US special forces raid killed the al Qaeda founder, the subterfuge was seized on by the local Taliban and other extremists to strengthen their campaign against vaccinations.

A decade after the raid, the country is still fighting a stubborn streak of anti-vaccination feeling, with persistent conspiracy theories that vaccines are harmful, or some kind of Western plot to sterilise Muslims.

The researchers looked at the effect of the disclosure on the number of children receiving polio drops, a shot for diphtheria, whooping cough, and tetanus, and measles vaccine.

The researchers estimated that the vaccination rate declined between 23 per cent and 39 per cent in districts with higher levels of electoral support for an alliance of parties espousing political extremism. The fall was less in districts voting for other parties.

Andreas Stegmann, one of the paper's authors, said: “The empirical evidence highlights that events which cast doubt on the integrity of health workers or vaccines can have severe consequences for the acceptance of health products such as vaccines.

“This seems particularly relevant today as public acceptance of the new vaccines against Covid-19 is crucial to address the pandemic.”

The early stages of Pakistan's jab campaign have been undermined by a lack of supplies, but health officials are also worried it will run into the suspicion surrounding polio and other vaccinations.

It is unclear whether the fake vaccination scheme played any role in finally pinpointing bin Laden. Yet it caused fury among Pakistan's military, who had already been humiliated by America finding the world's most wanted many on their soil.

Dr Afridi was first accused of spying and treason, but then convicted of separate charges of funding Lashkar-e-Islam, a now defunct banned militant group. He was sentenced to 33 years in prison, later cut to 23 on appeal. He remains in prison in solitary confinement and his family say his health is failing.

“He is being kept in prison now only to teach every Pakistani a lesson not to cooperate with a western intelligence agency,” Husain Haqqani, who was serving as Pakistan's ambassador to Washington at the time of the raid said last month.

“Instead of coming clean on Bin Laden's presence in Pakistan, the authorities have made Dr Afridi a scapegoat.”

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