Civility? In this economy?

This article was first published in the On the Trail 2024 newsletter. Sign up to receive the newsletter in your inbox on Tuesday and Friday mornings.

Good morning and welcome to “On the Trail 2024,” the Deseret News’ new campaign newsletter. I’m Samuel Benson, Deseret’s national political correspondent, and I’ll be bringing coverage of the presidential election straight to your inbox twice a week, from today until Election Day — 437 days from now. (But who’s counting?)

I’m writing today’s newsletter from Milwaukee, host of the first Republican presidential debate earlier this week. Today’s edition includes an exclusive interview with the mayor of Milwaukee; the latest stories from Deseret’s team of political reporters; a look at the latest polls; and a list of weekend reads to keep you up-to-date.

The Big Idea

Civility? In this economy?

It’s been said that in politics, divisiveness sells. But Milwaukee Mayor Cavalier Johnson seems convinced that for his city, “disagreeing without being disagreeable” is not only civil — it’s good for business.

Johnson is a proud Black Democrat. He served as one of President Joe Biden’s on-the-ground surrogates during the 2020 election. He welcomed Biden to his city last week; two weeks prior, he played host to Vice President Kamala Harris.

So when the Republican National Committee expressed interest in selecting Milwaukee as the site of its first presidential debate — and next year’s Republican National Convention — the mayor had a surprising response: he rolled out the red carpet.

“We can be gracious hosts,” Johnson told me. “We can disagree without being disagreeable. I think that’s a way for us to bring people together and still get great things accomplished.”

There is, of course, an economic benefit to him welcoming the RNC to his city. When we spoke on Tuesday, the day before the debate, he didn’t know specifics about the economic boost the debate would bring to his city, but he estimated “millions of dollars would be spent.” For next year’s four-day convention in June? Projections are in the tens of millions, or hundreds of millions, in economic impact for the Milwaukee area.

“I want that to happen in Milwaukee,” Johnson said. “I don’t want it to happen in some other jurisdiction, some other city across the country. I want that attention. I want those resources. I want those dollars. I want that investment here.”

But Johnson’s stance seems to go beyond a pure economic play. Milwaukee is a blue city in a purple state. Wisconsin voted for Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020. Forecasters predict it will be one of a handful of swing states that will decide the 2024 race.

Which means both Democrats and Republicans are scraping for any advantage possible. The liberals on the state’s Supreme Court — an elected position — have gone “rogue” to weaken conservatives’ powers. Republicans have long been accused of disenfranchising voters of color in urban areas like Milwaukee. And as the RNC flooded the city this week, the Democratic National Committee showed up, too — plastering Biden/Harris billboards across town and hosting meetings with press and dignitaries (including Johnson, who met with DNC chair Jamie Harrison Tuesday morning).

“The fact that we’re being gracious hosts to people who I disagree with politically, does not refute the fact that we’ve got Democratic values,” Johnson said.

Nor does it refute the fact that Milwaukeeans — and most Americans — generally dislike the vitriolic political divide that is fed to them, Johnson said. “This is the thing: I believe that the vast majority of people in Milwaukee, in Wisconsin and across the United States are looking for people to be able to disagree but not be so disagreeable,” he continued. “Do I personally believe that we can do that? Yes.”

Johnson’s outlook can be summed up by a phrase he heard from one of his constituents — an African American woman who runs a small transportation company. To her, the benefit of the event was economic. “This is not about red or blue,” she said. “This is about green.”

The latest from Deseret News 2024 election coverage

• “With Trump absent, Ramaswamy faces the brunt of attacks during first GOP debate”

• “Trump talks indictment, President Biden and Jeffrey Epstein in Tucker interview” by Gitanjali Poonia

• “The Republican presidential race’s next battleground: Ukraine”

• “Sen. Mitt Romney says Trump’s 4 indictments a result of ‘his own actions’” by Suzanne Bates

• “Rep. Burgess Owens endorses Donald Trump for 2024” by Brigham Tomco

• “Gov. Spencer Cox on Trump’s 4th indictment: ‘Serious and deeply concerning’” by Gitanjali Poonia

• “Democratic lawmaker asks Biden to ‘pass the torch’” by Hunter Schwarz

Poll pulse

In national polls, former President Donald Trump maintains a dominant lead among the Republican field — somewhere between 40 and 46 percentage points. The real movement is among his challengers. Gov. Ron DeSantis has been tanking, from the 30s in March to the mid-teens now. Others are on his heels: in a new InsiderAdvantage poll, DeSantis is at 10%, Vivek Ramaswamy at 6%, Nikki Haley at 5% and Chris Christie at 4%.

From early voting states:

New Hampshire: Christie (9%) passed up DeSantis (8%); meanwhile, Trump sits at 49%. (Emerson College).

South Carolina: Sen. Tim Scott and DeSantis are gridlocked at 14%, while Trump sits at 48%. Scott’s fellow South Carolinian, Haley, is 8%. (Trafalgar).

Iowa: Scott is in third place (9%), behind DeSantis (19%) and Trump (42%). (Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom).

Friday mailbag

Have a question about the campaign you’d like me to answer? Curious about who won the debate, or what polls say about Latter-day Saint voters, or whether anyone can catch Trump? Drop me a line on X/Twitter (@sambbenson) or by email (onthetrail@deseretnews.com). I’ll choose one question and write about it in next Friday’s newsletter.

Weekend reads

• “Vivek Ramaswamy’s Truth” (John Hendrickson, The Atlantic): A broad, sweeping profile of the fastest-rising Republican candidate, written after a week on the trail (and plane and bus) with Ramaswamy. It’s caused quite the stir among the Vivek 2024 camp — Ramaswamy claimed he was “misquoted” by Hendrickson when comparing 9/11 to Jan. 6, leading Hendrickson to release the audio recording … and prove he got the quote right.

• “As Republicans debated, Biden campaign put focus on Trump” (Andrea Shalal and Jarrett Renshaw, Reuters): The incumbent is gearing up for a 2024 rematch with Trump, with his newest ad campaign taking on the former president head-on.

• “I’m a Body Language Expert. Here’s What I Saw During the GOP Debate” (Joe Navarro, Politico): You won’t find this analysis anywhere else: A 25-year FBI veteran trained in “decoding human behavior” breaks down the hand gestures, facial expressions and tonations of the candidates. His takeaways: Haley came for a fight, Ramaswamy had fun, and DeSantis … should smile more.

• “Ron DeSantis on Fatherhood, Parents’ Rights, and the 2024 Campaign” (Molly Ball, Time): Ball followed DeSantis around in Iowa two weeks ago and got the governor to talk faith and family — two topics he’s largely avoided. (He’s coy with Ball, too. She writes: “When I ask whether his view of the primacy of family comes from his faith, he responds in generalities rather than give a window into his personal spirituality.” Better than nothing.)

• “Vivek Gives NR an Answer to the January 6 Debate Question He Missed” (John McCormack, National Review): Kudos to NR for tracking Ramaswamy down in the spin room post-debate and asking him the question he didn’t answer onstage: Would he have done the same thing Mike Pence did on Jan. 6? Ramaswamy’s response: “I think I would have done it very differently.”

And for those burnt out by debate analysis, here’s a fascinating profile by my Deseret colleague Ethan Bauer, who spent time with Colorado Springs’ new independent mayor — the first non-Republican to ever win the seat: “The disruptor” (Ethan Bauer, Deseret Magazine).

Anything you want to see from our post-debate coverage? As always, my inbox is open: onthetrail@deseretnews.com.

See you on the trail.

Samuel

Editor’s Note: The Deseret News is committed to covering issues of substance in the 2024 presidential race from its unique perspective and editorial values. Our team of political reporters will bring you in-depth coverage of the most relevant news and information to help you make an informed decision. Find our complete coverage of the election here.