How many more games will Clemson football win this season? Our predictions

From No. 9 to No. 25 to five straight weeks unranked in the AP Top 25 poll, this Clemson football team hasn’t had the season anyone expected.

But as the Tigers enter their off week at 4-2 and 2-2 in the ACC, a back-loaded schedule presents opportunities for the team to play its way back into a successful season — or keep stacking up losses and put a streak in jeopardy.

Coach Dabo Swinney’s squad was hoping to enter the off week on a high note. But needing an onside kick recovery with 1:34 remaining to outlast middling Wake Forest — as a 20-point home favorite — by five points didn’t inspire as much confidence as recent games against Syracuse and Florida State did.

At the halfway point of the 2023 Clemson football season, here’s a ranking of the rest of the Tigers’ schedule from the easiest game to most difficult game.

Home vs. Georgia Tech, Nov. 11

ESPN FPI chance to win: 84.4%

Give Georgia Tech credit for taking advantage of an all-time Miami coaching blunder Saturday and going 74 yards in 25 seconds on the road to upset the Hurricanes with a late touchdown. But you can’t bet on a tenure-defining mistake to win every conference game, unless the ACC suddenly turns into a league coached exclusively by Mario Cristobal clones.

Brent Key was a smart hire for Tech and has the Yellow Jackets playing tough, but this is a 3-3 football team with significantly less talent than Clemson. The Tigers have also won eight straight games in this series and seven straight at home.

They’ll keep it rolling this year.

Away vs. NC State, Oct. 28

ESPN FPI chance to win: 73.2%

At No. 38, NC State is the lowest ranked team in the 247Sports Talent Composite remaining on Clemson’s schedule — two spots behind Georgia Tech.

The Wolfpack were picked to finish fourth in the ACC thanks to the flashy new combination of quarterback Brennan Armstrong and offensive coordinator Robert Anae, who made for a dominant pairing at Virginia in 2021.

That experiment’s already over, as coach Dave Doeren benched Armstrong last week for sophomore MJ Morris, who he’d initially planned to redshirt.

NC State is 4-2 overall but 1-2 versus Power Five competition. The Wolfpack get a nod over Georgia Tech because it’s a road game for Clemson and this Textile Bowl series has been chippy, fun and close over the years.

Away vs. Miami, Oct. 21

ESPN FPI chance to win: 48.6%

Miami dropped eight spots from No. 17 to No. 25 after Saturday’s home disaster against Georgia Tech, which Cristobal (to his credit) has owned completely.

Still, how many six-figure-salary coaches does it take to kneel the ball? (Clemson, though not as extreme as Miami’s case, has also shot itself in the foot with poor clock management this season.)

The Tigers have cruised against Miami in their last four meetings across seven seasons (closest point differential: Clemson +25), and the Hurricanes could very well enter on a two-game losing streak, given they play at UNC this weekend.

Miami’s win over Texas A&M continues to look good, but the team has failed its only other real test so far against a lesser Georgia Tech team.

Away vs. South Carolina, Nov. 25

ESPN FPI chance to win: 67.4%

Crazy things happen in rivalry games. Just take last year’s Palmetto Bowl as an example. Clemson was a two-touchdown favorite and ended up getting eliminated from the College Football Playoff race after an all-time Spencer Rattler and USC special teams game.

The Gamecocks (2-3, 1-2 SEC) have their share of defensive issues. This is still an SEC team, though, with a roster full of the type of playmakers who can turn it on in an instant. Given how excellent the Rattler-Xavier Legette connection has been this year, how rocking Williams-Brice Stadium will be and how turnover-prone Clemson is, this one remains far from a pushover.

Home vs. Notre Dame, Nov. 4

ESPN FPI chance to win: 47.0%

Rising coach Marcus Freeman has faced a lot more criticism the past few weeks, as losses to Ohio State and Louisville have booted the Fighting Irish out of the CFP race, than he did last November when unranked Notre Dame routed Clemson in South Bend, 35-14. The loss started a concerning skid for Clemson against top-tier competition that continued through the FSU game.

At No. 11 in the 247Sports Talent Composite, Notre Dame is the closest team to No. 5 Clemson. The Fighting Irish have also won two straight regular-season meetings in the series, which always tends to produce instance classics.

When Sam Hartman is firing on all cylinders, Notre Dame’s as good as anyone on the schedule. That hasn’t been the case every week, though.

Home vs. North Carolina, Nov. 18

ESPN FPI chance to win: 53.9%

What a bounce-back season UNC has assembled since getting blasted by Clemson in the 2022 ACC championship game.

That was the third of four consecutive losses for the Tar Heels, whose late-season skid from 9-1 and ranked No. 13 nationally to 9-5 and unranked somehow made star quarterback Drake Maye’s video game numbers read a little hollow.

Now UNC is 5-0 for the first time since 1997 — during Mack Brown’s first stint in Chapel Hill — and the Tar Heels defense, long an issue when the offense has been good, is holding up its end of the bargain. And Maye is once again playing like the No. 1 pick of the 2024 NFL Draft — if not for Southern Cal’s Caleb Williams.

The Tar Heels haven’t won in Death Valley since 2001. Watch out.

How many games will Clemson win this season?

The Tigers simply don’t pop in a deep ACC, which had six teams start the season 4-0 (tied with the 2012 SEC for the most in a single season in the AP Poll era dating back to 1936) and still boasts three of the 13 undefeated teams in the FBS: No. 4 Florida State, No. 12 UNC and No. 14 Louisville.

The gap has narrowed, and Clemson can’t mess around and still get wins like it used to. It doesn’t help that in a developmental year for Cade Klubnik and company, the Tigers have the third-best strength of schedule among ACC teams (No. 40 nationally). ESPN’s Football Power Index gives Clemson a 96.4% chance at 6-plus wins and a projected final record of 7.7-4.3.

I tend to agree. It’s too late in the season for “what-ifs.” Clemson can beat anyone right now, but that’s not going to happen with ongoing ball control issues and mental mistakes. I see four wins and two losses (Notre Dame, North Carolina) remaining on Clemson’s schedule, making for an 8-4 final record, a 5-3 final ACC record and the end to the program’s long-touted 12-year streak of 10-plus wins.