Climate watch: National security implications for climate change in the Arctic

I am a Republican who cares about climate change. I care for many reasons, one of which is the imminent threat it poses to our national security. The Arctic is warming three times as fast as the global average and Arctic Sea ice is in severe decline.

The decline of sea ice means the opening of shipping routes in open water. Decades ago, the sea ice acted as an impenetrable barrier, keeping foreign vessels away from our Alaskan shore, previously only accessible with giant ice breaking ships. Activity in the Arctic Sea over the past year demonstrates an increased threat to U.S. national security.

Russia continues to look for ways to sell its oil and gas and seeks to expand its presence in the Arctic to ship fossil fuels to buyers in China. According to NPR, there is a “sharp increase” of Russian oil tankers operating in Arctic waters as these newly-opened shipping lanes are the quickest way to get Russian oil to China.

Russia does have pipelines to China, but they are fully maxed out. A warmer and increasingly navigable Arctic will lead to more commercial, civilian and military activity, rendering the region more prone to accidents and misunderstandings between major players, according to the Center For Climate and Security.

Nearly a dozen Russian and Chinese ships sailed near Alaska’s Aleutian Islands in August as part of a joint exercise — leading the U.S. to deploy warships and aircraft to monitor the formation. U.S. Northern Command said the Russian and Chinese naval formation patrolled “near Alaska” but “was not considered a threat.”

Alaska’s Sens. Lisa Murkowski and Dan Sullivan, both Republicans, spoke out against the joint exercise in statements, while calling for more military funding for their state.

Last fall, the Canadian military found Chinese buoys in the Arctic. According to official statements, the buoys were deployed for scientific research, but security experts are concerned they could also be used to track submarines and ships, or examine the seabed for resources. The buoys were found months before China sent a suspected spy balloon over Alaska and the continental U.S. before being shot down by one of our fighter jets.

In June, one of the world’s largest reinsurers, Swiss Re, released a report titled “SONAR 2023: New Emerging Risk Insights.” A reinsurer is a company that provides financial protection to insurance companies, handling risks too large for them to handle alone. According to the report: “Climate change is driving the Arctic opening, giving rise to new shipping and trade routes. The economic and strategic potential of the region is growing. So too are the potential for environmental exposure and geopolitical frictions. These hamper cooperation and governance, creating new and emerging risks.”

The Department of Defense has long considered climate change a threat to our national security, calling it a “threat multiplier” ever since the 2014 Quadrennial Defense Review.

My party needs to get serious about the risk climate change poses to our national security. There’s nothing conservative about betting our national security on the false hope that climate change is a “hoax” or somehow 99% of the world’s climate scientists are “grifters.” There are many moderate Republicans like myself who want our Republican leaders to bring climate solutions to the table. Chinese and Russian warships completing military exercises off our Alaskan coast unimpeded by sea ice is not a hoax. It’s very real.

Jon Clark is Appalachia Regional Coordinator for Citizens’ Climate Lobby.