CNN Poll: Biden and Trump are in a dead heat in potential Nevada rematch

A new poll of registered voters in Nevada suggests the state is poised to reprise its role as a key battleground in the presidential election next November, while its first-in-the-West Republican caucuses in February could help to cement former President Donald Trump’s hold on the race for his party’s nomination.

President Joe Biden and Trump split registered voters in a hypothetical 2024 matchup in Nevada by a near-even margin with no clear leader: 46% support Biden, 45% Trump in a CNN poll of the state conducted by SSRS. The poll’s results mirror the tight race seen in nearly all recent national polls testing initial reactions to a repeat of the 2020 presidential election, when Biden won Nevada by just over 2 percentage points.

Many of those backing Biden in a potential 2024 rematch say their choice would be motivated largely by opposition to his chief Republican rival. Most, 55%, say their ballot would be more a vote against Trump, while 44% say it would be more an affirmative show of support for Biden. By contrast, 63% of Trump supporters say they’d vote for him mostly as a show of support.

Nevada could play a central part in choosing a Republican nominee for president next year, with its caucuses, set for February 8, serving as the third contest in the GOP’s nomination race. The new poll finds Trump, with 65% support, as the clear favorite among likely Republican caucusgoers. More than 8 in 10 Trump supporters in the Silver State say they’re unlikely to change their mind about voting for him, meaning that overall, a majority, 54%, of all likely Republican caucusgoers in the poll already consider themselves locked-in Trump voters After Trump, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis holds 13% support, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley has 6%, tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy has 4% and former Vice President Mike Pence has 3%. All other candidates tested in the poll land at 2% or less.

Trump leads in the fight for the GOP nomination

Trump’s advantage in the Nevada caucuses spans demographic lines. He holds majority support among all age groups, both men and women, those with college degrees and those without, and among self-described conservatives as well as those who call themselves moderates or liberals.

About 6 in 10 likely GOP caucusgoers say that either fighting for conservative values (37%) or caring about people like them (24%) are the most important of five traits tested that their party’s nominee could have. Most likely caucusgoers also rate those attributes as essential when asked about each one individually (73% on caring about people like them, 63% on fighting for conservative values). These voters are more likely than others to say they back Trump for the nomination: 74% support Trump among those who call fighting for conservative values essential versus 49% among those who rate it as less important, and 70% choose Trump among those who call caring about people like them essential versus 53% among those who rate it as less important.

Majorities also say it is essential for the GOP nominee to represent the future of the Republican Party (64%) and be able to attract support from outside the party (52%). But far fewer rate those traits as the most important of the five tested, with 13% choosing attracting support from outside the GOP and 10% representing the future of the party. There are also narrower divides in support for Trump versus other candidates between those calling each of those traits essential and those who rate them as less critical.

Most likely Republican caucusgoers say the economy is the most important issue to them in deciding which candidate to support for the nomination (55%), while 19% choose immigration, 11% voting rights and election integrity, and less than 5% choose any other issue.

Compared with other likely caucusgoers, Trump supporters are less broadly focused on the economy (49% call it their top issue, compared with 67% of those not backing Trump). They are more likely to say their top concern is immigration (22% vs. 13%) or voting rights and election integrity (16% vs. 2%).

Trump backers are also uniquely enthusiastic about the prospect of his nomination. Among likely Republican caucusgoers who support Trump, 84% say they will definitely support him, while just 16% say there’s a chance they could change their minds. Meanwhile, most of those backing other Republican candidates say they could still change their minds (60%).

Two-thirds of all likely Republican caucusgoers (67%) say they would feel enthusiastic should Trump win the nomination, while 30% or fewer express as much excitement for each of six other GOP contenders. And even those likely caucusgoers who are not current Trump supporters largely say they would be at least satisfied should the former president win the nomination (63% feel that way, compared with 34% who say they would feel dissatisfied or upset with that outcome).

Biden, Trump and voter sentiment about their 2024 choices

Republicans generally, and especially Trump supporters, are more likely than other registered voters in Nevada to say they are satisfied with the candidates they have to choose from in 2024. Overall, 54% of Nevada voters say they are satisfied with their choices for president. That rises to 79% among Republican voters, compared with 53% among Democrats and just 40% among independents. Those Republicans who support Trump for their party’s nomination are the most apt to express satisfaction with their choices: 90% feel that way vs. 70% of all other likely Republican caucusgoers.

Alongside independents, younger voters are notably less likely to express satisfaction with their 2024 choices. Just 45% of those younger than 45 say they are satisfied with the candidates they have to choose from, compared with a majority among voters age 45 or older (61%). Among those younger than 35, satisfaction dips to 39%.

Biden will take his case for reelection in the state to a group of voters who, at present, largely disapprove of the way he’s handled the presidency. Overall, 54% say they disapprove of the job Biden is doing, while 42% approve, similar to his average approval ratings among all adults nationally. Nearly 9 in 10 Democratic registered voters in the state say they approve of his work (89%), but a majority of independents (58%) and nearly all Republicans (97%) disapprove.

In their hypothetical matchup, Biden and Trump each hold the support of just over 9 in 10 of their own partisans (92% of Democratic voters say they would back Biden, 93% of Republican voters would pick Trump), while independents are split, 43% Trump to 42% Biden with 12% saying they would opt for Nevada’s required “none of these candidates” ballot line instead.

The survey suggests there isn’t much of a gap in motivation by party in Nevada, with an identical 73% of registered voters saying they are “extremely motivated” among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents and among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. Looking at vote preference among those who say they are deeply motivated to vote in 2024, the matchup remains about even, with Trump at 47% and Biden at 46%.

Many of the dynamics that drove the 2020 contest between Trump and Biden remain in place. The survey finds Biden carrying a majority of Latino voters (56% Biden to 41% Trump), members of union households (53% Biden to 40% Trump), women (54% Biden to 39% Trump) and White voters with college degrees (54% Biden to 36% Trump). Trump’s strongest groups outside of his own partisans are men (52% Trump to 37% Biden), White voters without college degrees (54% Trump to 35% Biden) and those who live in the rural counties outside of the state’s population centers of Clark and Washoe counties (66% back Trump, 31% Biden).

While views among registered voters in this poll are not directly comparable to the results of exit polls among those who voted in prior elections, the latest survey suggests there have been few significant shifts within each of those core support groups. Biden’s advantage among White voters with college degrees appears wider (the Nevada exit poll found 49% backed Biden and 48% Trump in 2020), but little else has moved outside the margin of error.

The poll finds Trump holding the support of 81% of those who disapprove of the way Biden is handling the presidency. In 2020, exit polls found that Biden won 91% of Nevada voters who disapproved of Trump.

The CNN Nevada poll was conducted online and by telephone by SSRS from September 29 through October 6 among a random sample of 1,251 registered voters in the state, including 650 likely Republican caucusgoers. The survey included an oversample to reach additional registered Republicans in order to better assess views among likely GOP caucusgoers. Results among the oversampled group have been weighted so that they reflect their actual share of all registered voters within the overall results. Likely caucusgoers were identified based on their answer to a question about their intention to participate in the caucuses. Results for the full sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points; it is 5.3 points for results among likely Republican caucusgoers.

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