Will it be cold in Florida for Christmas? Will it rain on Christmas day? NWS, almanac forecasts

C. A. Bridges, USA TODAY NETWORK - Florida
·6 min read
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A massive storm swept across most of the central and eastern United States over the weekend, bringing gusty winds, thunderstorms and snow. At least six people were killed in Tennessee when tornados struck the area.

Last year, Florida saw its coldest Christmas in over three decades.

In 2022, an arctic blast slammed into the U.S. with dangerously cold temperatures and heavy snow, fatal car crashes, thousands of canceled flights and millions at risk for power outages. Temperatures dropped into the 20s Christmas morning across north and central Florida, putting it in the top five behind the Christmas of 1989 and the Christmas cold wave of 1983, which still holds the record for most of the country.

So what's coming for Christmas in Florida this year? Can we expect the same this holiday?

Almost certainly not, forecasters are saying. This year, we have El Niño. But we're probably going to get wet.

"Weak, moderate, and strong El Niños all share similar features for the month of December," DTN meteorologist John Baranick wrote on a blog post earlier in November. "It is usually very warm for most of the U.S. outside of the Southwest where it is typically cooler, while precipitation increases are seen across the southern tier."

While it's too early for specifics, the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center's week 3-4 outlook suggests warmer-than-normal temperatures along the northwestern coast of the U.S. into the north-central areas, normal temps from north-central to the East Coast, and cooler weather for the southeast, with an up to 70% chance of above-normal precipitation for Florida between Dec. 16 to Dec. 29.

And that's important because there will be a lot of people on the road and in the sky.

AAA predicts second-highest holiday travel forecast since they started tracking

According to AAA, 115.2 million travelers will be heading 50 miles or more from home over the 10-day holiday period covering Christmas and New Year's, a 2.2% increase over last year and the second-highest year-end travel forecast since the organization began tracking holiday travel 23 years ago. Nearly 104 million of them will be on the road, AAA said.

Florida may break its own record from last year, AAA spokesman Mark Jenkins said. An estimated 6.6 million Floridians are expected to travel for the holidays, a 3.4% increase over last year's 6.4 million.

Debbie Haas, Vice President of Travel for AAA, said. “AAA has seen steady year-over-year growth in travel demand, culminating with what is expected to be the busiest year-end holiday travel season on record in Florida, and the second-busiest nationwide,” Haas said.

AAA predicts that airports will be the busiest they have ever been over the holidays, with 7.5 million air travelers.

Will it rain on Christmas in Florida?

Three-four week outlook for Dec. 23, 2023 - Jan. 5, 2024.
Three-four week outlook for Dec. 23, 2023 - Jan. 5, 2024.

The last weeks of December may see some rain here and there, Infanti said, most likely around the southern parts of the country and especially around Florida, where El Niño may help drive more rain to the area.

Central and South Florida, along with the west coast and parts of the central middle area of the U.S. have a 33-40% chance of above-normal precipitation in the week leading up to Christmas, the NWS said in the last 3-4 week forecast, but Christmas week may get wetter. In the forecast for Dec. 23 to Jan. 5, the tip of the Panhandle has a 50-55% chance of above-normal precipitation, north Florida has a 55-60% chance, and the rest of Florida has a 60-70% chance. Note that these are not chances of rain, but chances of above-normal rain for the time period.

AccuWeather's monthly forecasts as of this week predict a rainy Christmas Eve and Christmas in the western Panhandle, rain on Christmas Eve in the rest of the state, and possible showers on Christmas Day across central Florida, subject to change as weather systems continue to develop.

Will it be hot or cold on Christmas in Florida?

Three-four week outlook for Dec. 23, 2023 - Jan. 5, 2024.
Three-four week outlook for Dec. 23, 2023 - Jan. 5, 2024.

The NWS' current long-range forecast calls for below-average December temperatures across the southeast U.S., with Florida and south Texas specifically named.

"The highest confidence of a below-average temperature outlook is for Florida," said NWS forecaster Emerson LaJoie.

AccuWeather's monthly forecast predicts a Christmas Eve overnight temps in the high-40s-50s across most of the state, rising to the 70s for Christmas Day.

For the rest of the country, the NWS predicts average temperatures for most of the rest of the continental U.S. and higher-than average temps in the north and northwest.

What does the Farmers' Almanac predict for Christmas weather in Florida?

The Farmers' Almanac forecasts plenty of snow and rain across most of the U.S. this upcoming winter.
The Farmers' Almanac forecasts plenty of snow and rain across most of the U.S. this upcoming winter.

According to the Farmer's Almanac's Chistmas predictions for Florida, "Some cold and wet precipitation may dampen this Christmas – but never our holiday spirit!"

Conditions for the Southeast Zone, including Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, and Florida, are expected to be cool and rainy off and on, with a "slow xclearing" after Christmas.

The Almanac has predicted a return to cooler weather in its 2023-2024 winter forecast, with a greater chance of rain for the southeast.

"The Southeast and Florida will see a wetter-than-normal winter, with average winter temperatures overall, but a few frosts may send many shivers to snowbirds trying to avoid the cold and snow back home," the Farmers' Almanac predicted.

The Old Farmers' Almanac, a competitor, predicts rain and then sunny, cold days for Dec. 25-28.

Believe them or not? The Farmers' Almanac predicts normal temps and a wet winter for Florida. How accurate is it?

What did the Farmers' Almanac predict for Christmas weather around the country?

If you'll be traveling for the holidays, here's what you can expect to run into, according to the Farmers' Almanac:

  • Northeast & New England: New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Washington D.C. may see some precipitation leading up to the end of the month but should see "clear skies for holiday events."

  • Great Lakes, Ohio Valley & Midwest: Same for Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, Kentucky, Illinois, and Wisconsin.

  • North Central: Missouri, Iowa, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Colorado, Wyoming, and Montana may see a white Christmas, the Almanac says. "Possible heavy snow in Colorado and over the Plains just in time to set the mood for the holiday."

  • South Central: Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Texas, and New Mexico can expect a "stormy Christmas" across New Mexico to Texas, with rain coming to the Gulf Coast.

  • Northwest: The forecast for Washington, Oregon, and Idaho is a somewhat mysterious "unsettled weather slowly improves for the Christmas holiday!"

  • Southwest: California, Nevada, Utah, and Arizona may see heavy snow, but Arizona may clear up in time "for opening presents."

USA TODAY's Doyle Rice contributed to this report.

This article originally appeared on The Daytona Beach News-Journal: Christmas weather in Florida: cooler temps, chances of rain for holiday