Cold and snowy 'winter wonderland' forecast for central Illinois

Cold weather fans, rejoice. A "winter wonderland" is forecast for central Illinois.

That's the word from two iconic almanacs offering long-term weather predictions. Here's how the longtime rivals foresee this winter.

The Farmers' Almanac

Cold and stormy is the forecast for Illinois and the rest of the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and Midwest zone. The Farmers' Almanac predicts below-average temperatures and plenty of precipitation — snowstorms, sleet, ice and rain — for much of the Great Lakes and Midwest areas, especially in January and February.

The outlook for the neighboring North Central zone is for cold temperatures with average snowfall.

For the U.S. as a whole, the Farmers' Almanac says, "The brrr is back" after last year's "warm winter anomaly," which included a Jan. 3 tornado outbreak in Illinois. A statement accompanying the forecast adds, “After a weird and warm winter season last year, this winter should make cold weather fans rejoice — especially those in the Great Lakes, Midwest, and northern New England areas. ... We expect more snow and low temperatures nationwide.”

Related: When 'Snowmageddon' blasted a blizzard on Peoria and central Illinois

The Farmers' Almanac, which dates to 1818, says its long-range forecast is based on a "mathematical and astronomical" formula that incorporates "sunspot activity, tidal action of the Moon, the position of the planets, and more." It denies the use of computer satellite tracking equipment, weather lore or, rather defensively, groundhogs.

The Farmers' Almanac website says "many longtime Almanac followers maintain that our forecasts are 80% to 85% accurate."

The Old Farmer's Almanac

Cold and snowy — a "winter wonderland" — is the outlook for a huge swath of the United States, including the Midwest. The Old Farmer's Almanac predicts above-normal snowfall and normal to colder-than-normal temperatures across most snow-prone areas. "Keep a shovel at the ready early," the outlook advises, "especially in the Northeast and Midwest." Snow will arrive beginning in November, it adds, with storms, showers, and flurries continuing through the start of spring.

The Old Farmer's Almanac places the Peoria area on the border of two regions.

In the Heartland region, roughly west of Peoria, slightly above-average precipitation and snowfall are predicted. The snowiest period is expected in late December and early to mid-January. The Old Farmer says, "Expect a white Christmas this year!" Temperatures are forecast to be below normal, with the coldest periods in early and late December, early and late January, and early February.

The Lower Lakes region extends from central Illinois to Chicago and eastward to upstate New York. The almanac foresees above-average snowfall, with the snowiest periods in late December through most of January and in mid-February. The publication predicts a white Christmas for much of the region, with a lesser chance south of Interstate 90. The Old Farmer forecasts below-average temperatures, with the coldest periods in early and late December and from January through mid-February.

The Old Farmer's Almanac claims 80% accuracy in its long-range predictions. It says it employs solar science, climatology and meteorology in its seasonal forecasts. The almanac dates to 1792.

How accurate are the almanacs?

The forecasts "attract attention and get people talking. ... But a lot of times what they do is use general phrases that are true most any year," said one weather expert.

Last year's Farmers' Almanac predicted a "glacial, snow-filled" winter for the North Central zone, which includes Colorado. In response, Russ Schumacher, a professor and climatologist at Colorado State University, told the Coloradoan, "What does 'glacial and snow-filled' for our area mean? Is that, we get a few days of really cold weather and some snow? That happens pretty much every winter."

A University of Illinois study conducted in 2010, cited by Popular Mechanics in 2022, found the Old Farmer's Almanac only about 52% accurate — "essentially random chance," the website reported.

The National Weather Service

How do the periodical publications align with the National Weather Service? We won't know for a while.

The NWS office in Lincoln, which covers Peoria and the rest of central Illinois, won't release a seasonal outlook until mid-October, said meteorologist Ben Deubelbeiss.

The NWS outlook for meteorological winter, defined as December through February, is provided by the Climate Prediction Center, based on a number of factors. An analysis of the state of the oceans and the atmosphere is fed into multiple dynamic and statistical models.

Deubelbeiss declined to comment on the almanacs.

First snowfalls in Peoria

But central Illinoisans needn't worry about wintry weather for a while.

Deubelbeiss said that in Peoria the earliest measurable snowfall — defined as one-tenth of an inch or more — occurred on Oct. 18, 1972. The average date of the first measurable snowfall is Nov. 22.

This article originally appeared on Journal Star: Farmers' Almanac, Old Farmer's Almanac agree: A cold, snowy winter in store for Peoria, Illinois, area