College Corner: Application predictions for 2023
The questions for the crystal ball are: What can we expect for the future of college applications in 2023? What will today’s high school junior be facing in the admissions process?
This darned crystal ball must be broken. It’s not showing the future!
But what does help to predict the future is the trends and data that we have been collecting over the past several years. Those trends give us a pretty accurate view of what the future of college application and admissions holds.
Application inflation is real
For the past several years, the number of applications for both public and private institutions have been steadily increasing and this growth shows no sign of stopping or even slowing. This seems like a good thing on the surface, but what lies underneath is another reality. Schools are not increasing their available seats. Admission opportunities remain the same. So, demand is growing but supply isn’t, and basic economics says that what happens (if we remember the real estate market) is that the power is in the hands of the supplier – the universities.
The Common Application has made things, well, more common. The University of Texas and Texas A&M have even switched to it, permitting the prospective student to apply with what amounts to one click. This has made the whole process so much easier, which results in more applications. This doesn’t mean, however, more admissions. Only a larger and deeper pool for schools to choose from.
Marketing
One very well-kept secret about universities and their success is that, like any business, they rely on marketing to ensure their success. What does success look like for a university? Increased application numbers! These not only generate big revenue in application fees, but also allow schools to report lower acceptance rates, creating a perception of scarcity.
Marketing for a university includes mailers, newsletters, social media blitzes and trade shows. Which brings us to the next driver of our application inflation.
Social pressure
An unexpected twist is the social pressure to gain admission into “good schools,” those appearing on short lists to questionable college rankings like those listed in the U.S. News & World Report rankings. The buzz in the hallways about who is applying where has become hyper focused, and the attaching of acceptance to self-worth is unfortunately an underlying theme.
There is one thing that is not a surprise to anyone: STEM remains the most competitive and in-demand major of any and all departments.
Many might think that due to the difficulty of math and science, there would be less competition. However, the prospect of professional career success is behind the popularity of degrees in engineering, computer sciences, business and nursing. But this is accompanied by an expectation of excellence in the application pool. That excellence is much easier to find with the rise in the number of applications.
Yield protection
One last effect of this application inflation – a kind of chicken or the egg problem – is the university applicant recruiters’ quest to raise their “yield rates.”
Getting good applicants is only the start of the battle. Once applicants are approved, they need to say yes, and that proportion of yesses to offers is called the “yield rate.” To increase yield rates, the marketing, branding and competitiveness all have to align, competitiveness most of all.
Back to application inflation
The end result of all of this is that there is no end in sight to the increased push for more applications. There will be no increase in the number of seats available, especially in STEM.
Ultimately, the competition for those desirable majors will increase even more for today’s high school juniors looking to apply in October 2023. Despite what seems to be an easier application process, in order for the student to ensure the place in the college and major of their dreams, that future engineer/doctor/entrepreneur needs to have a plan for success, a plan to make that dream a reality.
That planning process needs to start as early as possible. It needs to start now. It doesn’t take a crystalball. It just takes watching the trends and applying that knowledge to a winning strategy. Make sure thatthe college is competing for you as much as you are competing with other applicants.
Dale Price is the founder and owner of Access College America. Visit AccessCollegeAmerica.org to learn more.
This article originally appeared on Austin American-Statesman: College Corner: Application predictions for 2023
