College football picks: No. 7 Penn St and No. 3 Ohio St begin Beasts of Big Ten East round-robin

The Big Ten feels more like the Big Three this season, and in that case the season finally starts Saturday with No. 7 Penn State going to No. 3 Ohio State.

The round-robin matchups of the Nittany Lions, Buckeyes and No. 2 Michigan over the the next month and a half will likely decide the Big Ten East, the conference title and a spot in the College Football Playoff.

Upsets happen, but the rest of the Big Ten looks to be way behind the top three. So far, the Beasts of the East have outscored their conference competition 383-84. That includes Penn State's 31-0 victory against Iowa, which is in first place in the Big Ten West.

The Buckeyes are 8-1 against the Nittany Lions since James Franklin became Penn State coach, though the games are almost always close into the fourth quarter.

“When you’re in games like this, it can come down to one play," Ohio State coach Ryan Day said. "The consequences are higher, the stakes are higher.”

The first of three potential monster matchups in the Big Ten is easily the most intriguing game of Week 8.

No. 7 Penn State (plus 4 1/2) at No. 3 Ohio State

Both quarterbacks are first-year starters, but for Penn State sophomore Drew Allar this will be his first big road test. The Ohio native has yet to throw an interception in an offense that has been efficient but not explosive.

Ohio State's Kyle McCord, in his third season, has already had a bright-lights moment, leading the Buckeyes on a game-winning drive at Notre Dame.

Each will face multiple future NFL pass rushers who anchor the Nos. 1 (Penn State) and 2 (Ohio State) defenses in the country.

PICK: Ohio State 23-20.

No. 17 Tennessee (plus 8 1/2) at No. 11 Alabama

Last year's Third Saturday in October duel between Hendon Hooker and Bryce Young in Knoxville was maybe the game of the year. The Volunteers broke a 15-game losing streak to the Tide in spectacular fashion.

This is not likely to play out like that. The Vols are not nearly as explosive with QB Joe Milton and the Crimson Tide are finding ways to be successful while seemingly figuring it out on the fly.

PICK: Alabama 26-20.

No. 16 Duke (plus 13 1/2) at No. 4 Florida State

The Seminoles are 21-0 against the Blue Devils, average margin 39 points.

This, though, looks like Duke's best team in years and coach Mike Elko said QB Riley Leonard (ankle) might be ready to go this weekend. If he's not, can the Blue Devils muck it up enough to make this a four-quarter game?

PICK: Florida State 31-21.

No. 14 Utah (plus 6 1/2) at No. 18 Southern California

Things could get dicey quickly for the Trojans, who are coming off a loss at Notre Dame with No. 9 Oregon and No. 5 Washington looming. If they can't take care of a Utah team that is piecing together an offense devastated by injuries, what chance do they have to stay in the Pac-12 hunt?

The Utes were too tough for USC twice last year and it won them the conference.

PICK: USC 28-23.

Clemson at Miami (plus 3 1/2)

One of these teams will have three ACC losses by Sunday and neither of these fan bases signed up for that.

PICK: Miami 23-21.

The rest of Saturday’s games involving ranked teams and FBS foes, with lines by FanDuel Sportsbook:

No. 2 Michigan (minus 24 1/2) at Michigan State

This rivalry often brings the best out in the Spartans, but what does that even mean with a team that seems to be spiraling? ... MICHIGAN 38-10.

Arizona State at No. 5 Washington (minus 26 1/2)

Sun Devils have won three of the last four meetings, including a stunner last year in the desert ... WASHINGTON 49-20.

UCF at No. 6 Oklahoma (minus 18 1/2)

Sooners QB Dillon Gabriel faces his former team, which has allowed 127 points in its first three Big 12 games... OKLAHOMA 45-23.

No. 8 Texas (minus 22 1/2) at Houston

Cougars have been waiting a long time to get a crack at the Longhorns as conference-mates, but it doesn't look like they're ready for it ... TEXAS 48-20.

Washington State at No. 9 Oregon (minus 18 1/2)

Ducks try to bounce back against the other half of the Apple Cup rivalry teams ... OREGON 38-17.

Virginia at No. 10 North Carolina (minus 23 1/2)

Tar Heels begin manageable stretch (Virginia, Georgia Tech and Campbell) that could get them to mid-November unbeaten ... NORTH CAROLINA 35-10.

No. 13 Mississippi (minus 6 1/2) at Auburn

New Auburn coach Hugh Freeze faces his old school, where he went 39-25 in five seasons before being fired amid scandal ... OLE MISS 28-20.

Army (plus 29 1/2) at No. 19 LSU

The only meeting was in 1931 and Army won 20-0 at West Point, New York ... LSU 35-10.

South Carolina at No. 20 Missouri (minus 7)

Tigers midseason All-America WR Luther Burden takes aim at a Gamecocks defense allowing 321.7 yards passing per game, worst in the nation ... MISSOURI 34-23.

No. 22 Air Force (minus 10 1/2) at Navy

Falcons play their first game as a ranked team since 2019 without injured QB Zac Larrier ... AIR FORCE 28-14.

North Texas at No. 23 Tulane (minus 20 1/2)

Mean Green vs. Green Wave in a game that should be sponsored by The Nature Conservancy ... TULANE 45-20.

Minnesota at No. 24 Iowa (minus 3 1/2)

To add injury to insult, the struggling Hawkeyes offense has lost its quarterback and leading receiver in the past two weeks ... IOWA 16-11.

No. 25 UCLA (minus 17) at Stanford

Bruins should be able to take the pressure off freshman QB Dante Moore against the Cardinal's wonky run defense ... UCLA 34-14.

X REQUESTS

Pitt (plus 1 1/2) at Wake Forest (@MV_41): Panthers maybe have stabilized their offense with QB Christian Veilleux ... PITT 23-20.

TCU (plus 6 1/2) at Kansas State (@_BobaFrog_): Wildcats unleashed blue-chip freshman QB Avery Johnson last week and he ran for five touchdowns ... KANSAS STATE 28-24.

James Madison (minus 3 1/2) at Marshall (@BradTBuchanan): Dukes average 4.3 sacks per game, second in the country to Penn State ... JMU 27-20.

___

RECORD

Last week: Straight-up — 15-10; Against spread — 14-11.

Season: Straight-up — 117-44; Against spread — 73-87-1.

___

Follow Ralph D. Russo at https://twitter.com/ralphDrussoAP and listen at http://www.appodcasts.com

___

AP college football: https://apnews.com/hub/college-football and https://apnews.com/hub/ap-top-25-college-football-poll