College football picks: Oklahoma holds off Baylor; Michigan edges Penn State

Each week, the Times’ national college sports reporter J. Brady McCollough will pick the week’s eight best games — that have a combination of big-brand intrigue and a spread within a touchdown — plus the USC and UCLA games. Through 10 weeks, McCollough is 53-47.

No. 8 Oklahoma at No. 13 Baylor

The only game of the day that features teams ranked in the top 15 of the College Football Playoff rankings, Oklahoma-Baylor should get Saturday started right. The Sooners are 9-0 but did not look impressive doing it, struggling to beat Tulane and Kansas along the way. They look to have a much higher ceiling with freshman Caleb Williams in at quarterback over Spencer Rattler, and they’ll be looking to make a major statement to the CFP selection committee in Waco. Baylor lost to Texas Christian last week and struggled to contain TCU’s stud wideout, Quentin Johnston. Oklahoma’s stable of receivers should roast the Bears. Oklahoma 35, Baylor 28

No. 6 Michigan at Penn State

The Nittany Lions’ season quickly went off the rails with an unthinkable loss to Illinois at home Oct. 23. Their offense will have to get back on track for Penn State to beat Michigan, which still has everything to play for down the stretch. The Wolverines don’t have the best track record on the road against capable teams under Jim Harbaugh, but this year’s group won easily at Wisconsin and had Michigan State beat before a heroic Spartan comeback. The overall trend seems right for Michigan to move to 9-1 in Happy Valley. Michigan 23, Penn State 20

Mississippi State at No. 17 Auburn

Both teams are coming off tough losses to division mates Arkansas and Texas A&M, respectively, and this game now becomes a game that’s important for bowl positioning and pure pride. Mike Leach has his passing attack humming in year two, but Auburn’s defense is fierce, having just hemmed in Mississippi’s Matt Corral a few weeks ago. Auburn’s running game with Tank Bigsby will be the difference. Auburn 28, Mississippi State 25

Miami at Florida State

Just when the Manny Diaz era at Miami seemed over, the Hurricanes have rolled off three in a row, two over top-25 teams in N.C. State and Pittsburgh. A win over rival Florida State, which is still mired in struggle under Mike Norvell, would be another big step for Diaz to keep building in Coral Gables. Miami 38, Florida State 28

No. 11 Texas A&M at No. 15 Mississippi

Texas A&M could still win the SEC West if it wins out and Alabama loses, but it is most likely playing for a second straight New Year’s Six bowl over the next month. Ole Miss has that potential as well, but only if it beats the Aggies in Oxford. Texas A&M’s defense has the ability to slow Matt Corral just enough, and its run game should keep Corral off the field, too. Texas A&M 31, Ole Miss 24

No. 16 North Carolina State at No. 12 Wake Forest

North Carolina was able to outlast the electric Wake Forest offense led by quarterback Sam Hartman last week, but that game was in Chapel Hill, and the Tar Heels also have a great offense. The Wolfpack depend more on their defense and running game, and those two features will have to work overtime to win this one. Wake Forest 42, N.C. State 37

No. 25 Arkansas at Louisiana State

LSU nearly beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa last week, which indicates that the Tigers want to send Ed Orgeron out right. Not much has gone right for LSU this year, but a win over Arkansas would be fun. But the rough-and-tumble Razorbacks will have a say in it, too. This feels like a game that Death Valley wins. LSU 27, Arkansas 21

No. 9 Notre Dame at Virginia

The Fighting Irish don’t have a signature win, and this won’t count as one either. Virginia riding Brennan Armstrong’s arm to an upset may be a trendy pick this week, but it seems driven by emotion and not reality. Notre Dame should be able to score at will against this Virginia defense that is awfully cavalier about getting stops. And the Irish should be able to create some turnovers and sacks to put this away. Notre Dame 45, Virginia 30

Colorado at UCLA

Colorado is improving and coming off a win over Oregon State. But there will be no excuse for the Bruins to not become bowl eligible for the first time under Chip Kelly on Saturday. If they don’t, Kelly puts himself firmly on the hot seat. UCLA 38, Colorado 24

Nevada at No. 22 San Diego State

The Wolfpack and Aztecs meet Saturday night in a game that could be one of the best of the day if anyone can make it to Mountain West “After Dark.” Nevada loves to throw it around with quarterback Carson Strong, and San Diego State wants to run the ball and trust its defense. We’ll go with Strong and receiver Romeo Doubs to find a few big plays when it matters. Nevada 28, San Diego State 23

This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.