A College Football Playoff berth? An ACC title? Breaking down FSU’s 2023 schedule

Florida State is coming off a 10-3 season that ended with a Cheez-It Bowl win over Oklahoma. Expectations are even higher this season. Can the Seminoles win their first ACC title since 2014 and secure their first College Football Playoff berth since that season?

Here’s a week-by-week look at how things could play out for FSU:

Sept. 3 vs. LSU (at Orlando): FSU got a warmup game last season before stunning the Tigers in the Superdome on a blocked extra point with no time left. With LSU ranked fifth and FSU eighth, both starting quarterbacks returning, and surrounded by reloaded offenses, this one should be another titanic clash between two teams with designs on making the College Football Playoff. The Noles’ defense makes a late stop this time to seal another signature win for Mike Norvell’s squad. Prediction: FSU 34-31.

Sept. 9 vs. Southern Miss: A short week won’t hinder the Seminoles especially if they’re riding high off a win in the Camping World Kickoff. These two teams have not met since FSU prevailed 42-13 in the Walk On’s Independence Bowl in December 2017. Southern Miss’ running game led by Frank Gore Jr. might present some problems early on, but the Noles have a chance to show if their rush defense, which allowed 148.3 yards per game on the ground, has improved. FSU overcomes a bit of early sloppiness here and gives Norvell a chance to play some of his reserves late in the game as the Noles pull away. Prediction: FSU 37-13.

Sept. 16 at Boston College: Last season, FSU cruised to a 44-14 win at home against the Eagles thanks to 321 yards passing from Jordan Travis and two rushing touchdowns from Trey Benson. The latter also set the tone in that prime time game by returning the opening kickoff 93 yards for a touchdown. Boston College lost starting quarterback Phil Jurkovic, who transferred to Pitt, and will likely rely on sophomore Emmett Morehead this season. This is good news for the Noles’ defense in this one. And this is the time of year, you want to go to Boston. Prediction: FSU 34-10.

Sept. 23 at Clemson: The Seminoles will be hungry and looking to make a statement against the program that’s been the class of the ACC. The problem is Clemson will also be looking to remind people they are still the top dog in the conference after an 11-3 campaign in 2022. This one comes down to the wire. Maybe even a last-second score tips the scales in Clemson’s favor. But it fuels FSU’s drive the rest of the season for possible redemption, and a CFP-clinching victory in an ACC title game rematch. Prediction: Clemson 28-27.

Oct. 7 vs. Virginia Tech: Looking for a bounce back after a setback at Clemson, and motivated to beat its longtime rivals who they haven’t faced since 2018, expect FSU to be sharp in this one from the start. The Seminoles were embarrassed in a 24-3 home defeat against the Hokies in 2018, which many point to as the beginning of the end of the Willie Taggart era in Tallahassee. Jordan Travis has a big game and the Seminoles defense feasts on an offense still rebuilding after a dismal 2022. Prediction: FSU 42-7.

Oct. 14 vs. Syracuse: This was one of two dominant blowout wins FSU put together during its six-game winning streak to end last season. The Noles’ 38-3 rout of the Orange on the road came in spite of Syracuse’s experienced offense presenting a difficult challenge. Quarterback Garrett Shrader is back, but the Orange have several holes to fill on that side of the ball and two new coordinators. Couple all of those factors, FSU being at home and virtually no margin for error remaining if it is to make it into the College Football Playoff, and you get another lopsided Seminoles victory. Prediction: FSU 44-6

Oct. 21 vs. Duke: Coach Mike Elko was able to clean up one of the worst offenses in the nation in his first season at the helm of the Blue Devils and directed them to a 9-4 season that ended with a 30-13 win over UCF in the Military Bowl. Nine starters return on that unit and eight on defense, which should have Duke on the higher end of the conference standings by this point in the season. But Florida State has never lost to Duke in 19 all-time meetings. And this is not the year that changes. Prediction: FSU 31-20

Oct. 28 at Wake Forest: Recent history in this series has not favored the Seminoles with them losing their first game of the season to Wake in Tallahassee last October. That loss started a three-game skid before FSU recovered. But this Demon Deacons squad, while always well-coached under Dave Clawson, has multiple holes to fill after losing quarterback Sam Hartman and deep threat receiver A.T. Perry. Offensive coordinator Warren Ruggiero has proven he can adjust his offenses to whoever is taking the snaps and we’ll see if he can do the same with sophomore Mitch Griffis. This is a trap game for the Noles, but one that their experience should be able to get them through. Prediction: FSU 35-27

Nov. 4 at Pitt: The Seminoles are no stranger to the quarterback they will face in this one having defeated new Pitt starter Phil Jurkovic more than once when he was at Boston College. But Jurkovic will have the benefit of an experienced offensive line that returns three starters and junior tight end Gavin Bartholomew. It should already be cold on this day at Heinz Field, which could test both offenses. But here’s where that loaded defense will be called upon to get FSU past one of its biggest scares of the season. Prediction: FSU 22-21.

Nov. 11 vs. Miami: The Noles throttled the Hurricanes 45-3 in South Florida last season, showing how far ahead their programs had drifted apart heading into Mario Cristobal’s first season as Miami’s coach. With prized recruits from Cristobal’s first couple of recruiting classes and key transfers starting to take their places in the Hurricanes’ starting lineup, don’t expect a laugher like last season. But FSU is still far ahead in terms of depth to lose the upper hand in this longtime rivalry this season. Prediction: FSU 31-17.

Nov. 18 vs. North Alabama: After a grueling six-week slate, the Seminoles get a potential week to tune up for their biggest rival and potentially a rematch with Clemson in the ACC title game. If FSU can take care of business early, this game presents an opportunity for it to give some of their key players some rest. North Alabama is coming off a 1-10 season, but has a lot of players with Florida ties including junior quarterback TJ Smith, a graduate of McArthur High in Hollywood, who is competing for the starting spot entering the season. Prediction: FSU 52-7.

Nov. 25 at Florida: When these two last met in “The Swamp,” a bowl berth was on the line between a pair of 5-6 teams. There are still plenty of questions about the Gators heading into coach Billy Napier’s second season. Transfer quarterback Graham Mertz is likely to replace Anthony Richardson and how he performs as well as re-tooled offensive and defensive lines will dictate how successful they are in 2023. The scales have tipped in this series over the past two seasons, but whenever these two meet, craziness can ensue. FSU pulls away late. Prediction: FSU 30-17.